Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The Lions Contact List (courtesy of LionHawkeye)

The number to right is number of verified contacts.

#1

Aaron Curry LB Wake forest 4

Michael Crabtree WR Texas Tech 1

Jason Smith OT Baylor 4

BJ Raji DT Boston College 4

Eugene Monroe OT Virginia 4

Brian Orakpo DE/OLB Texas 1

Matt Stafford QB Georgia 4

Aaron Maybin DE PSU 2

Mark Sanchez QB USC 4

#20

Malcolm Jenkins CB OSU 2

Andre Smith LT Alabama 3

Jeremy Maclin WR Missouri 3

Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State 3

Brian Cushing OLB USC 2

Everette Brown DE Fla St 2

Peria Jerry DT Mississippi 2

Clay Matthews OLB USC 2

Michael Oher LT Mississippi 2

Rey Maualuga ILB USC 3

#33

Louis Delmas SS Western Michighan 3

James Laurenitus LB OSU 3

Alphonso Smith CB Wake forest 2

Ebbon Britton OT Zona 2

Jared Cook TE South Carolina 3

Ron Brace DT Boston College 2

Conner Barwin DE Cinncinati 3

Alex Mack C Cal 3

Josh Freeman QB KSU 3

Michael Johnson DE Georgia Tech 2

Eric Wood OC Louisville 3

Max Unger C Oregon 3

Evander Hood DT Missouri 3

#65

Sean Smith CB Utah 2

Jarron Gilbert DT San Jose state 3

Jasper Brinkley ILB South Carolina 2

S'endrick Marks DE Auburn 2

Fili Moala DT USC 2

Derrick Williams WR PSU 2

Duke Robinson OG Oklahoma 2

Phil Loadholt OT Oklahoma 2

Chase Coffman TE Missouri 2

#82

Pat White QB WVU 2

Travis Beckum TE Wisconsin 2

Marcus Freeman LB OSU 2

Tyronne Mckensie ILB USF 2

Cory Irvin DT Georgia 3

Mohammed Massaquoi WR Georgia 3

Tyronne Greene OG Auburn 2

TJ Lang OG/OT EMU 3

Jon Cooper C Oklahoma 2

#174

Donald Washington CB OSU 3

Demetrius Byrd WR LSU 3

Jason Phillips ILB TCU 2

Daniel Holtzclaw ILB EMU 2

Seth Olsen OL Iowa 2

DeAngelo Willingham CB Tennesee 3

#192

Pannel Egboh DE Stanford 2

Jerraud Powers CB Auburn 2

Ellis Lankster CB WVU 2

DJ Boldin WR Wake Forest 3

#255

Roy Miller DT Texas 2

Nick Hennessey OL Colgate 3

Carson Butler TE Michighan 2

EJ Bigger CB WMU 3

Tristan Davis RS Auburn 2

Bradley Fletcher CB Iowa 2

Johnny Knox WR Abeline Christian 3

Jacob Wyatt SS EMU 2

Brice McCain CB/RS Utah 3

Alex Fletcher C Stanford 2

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Less then 6 days to go for the 2009 draft

At this point in time, it is still unknown who the Lions will draft at #1 overall (assuming they are unable to trade the pick). Any group of 10 fans will garner you 4 different names to choose from, and each will have multiple reasons why their choice is the correct one. I only know for sure the #1 pick will not be a running back or kicker, since neither position group has had any scouting activity by the Lions. Based on the cap implications, I can also rule out Center, Guard, and Safety. We may as well rule out WR as well, for the obvious reasons (already have CJ and the recent draft history). At this point I don't see a DE or a DT that is better then the other choices for #1, so they go off the list.

That leaves LB, LT, and QB.

There is a perfectly good LB named Curry in this draft who has been called the safest pick in the draft. The only big issue is the money (cap hit) that the #1 pick takes up. No LB has ever gotten a contract as large as what it is assumed the #1 pick will get. Some say it's no big deal, but that just isn't true. How many times have good players been cut due to cap reasons? How many free agents weren't signed by teams that needed them because the money/cap hit was too much? The NFL is a business, everything revolves around the money, and the #1 pick and his agent will be after it. The Lions might feel they will overpay for a LB to avoid the other choices, but that indicates they have rated the players and there's a huge gap between Curry and everyone else. I am not convinced that is the case. There are several other linebackers in the draft who have played their entire college careers at middle line backer and they are options further down the draft board. So even though I don't foresee Curry as the pick, and even though it's unlikely he will be the pick, it is not impossible that he could be the pick.

There are also two left tackles rated fairly high on most boards, and either could be the pick. Both have their plusses and minuses. It's been rumored that J. Smith is the most likely of the two to be picked by the Lions. I just do not know which is better, and I guess I don't really care. If they both are that good then either would help the team. I'm sorry Jeff Backus, but you had 8 years to make an impression and you have been unable to do so. Quite the opposite in my case in fact. If it were up to me, a LT would be the #1 pick in the draft.

There are also two quarterbacks in the draft rated fairly high by some (and not nearly so high by others). The Lions appear more interested in Stafford then Sanchez, and most draft pundits have ordained Stafford the Lions pick. I feel they are feeding off of each other somewhat because the Lions have not said one word about who they would take, and anything they have said was probably misinformation designed to muddy the waters. They are in contract negotiations and are looking for a signed deal they can live with... they are also near a phone all the time in case a trade offer comes up... and they are getting ready for the rest of the draft, which I am sorry to say is actually more important then just the #1 pick. One pick alone is not going to fix the team... while those other picks could go a long way in doing so.

So here are some names I believe contain the players the Lions will draft, throughout draft weekend, depending on who is available and what trades they partake in. Just before the draft I will be posting a list of even more names, ones that have been verified the Lions have scouted, but for now, my short list... the guys who I think stand the best chance of getting picked by the Lions, ranked in the order I believe the Lions to be interested in them, grouped by draft pick location.

Matt Stafford QB Georgia
Jason Smith OT Baylor
Aaron Curry LB Wake Forest
Eugene Monroe OT Virginia
Mark Sanchez QB USC

Rey Maualuga ILB USC
Andre Smith LT Alabama
Peria Jerry DT Mississippi
Michael Oher LT Mississippi
James Laurenitus LB OSU

Conner Barwin DE
Josh Freeman QB KSU
Alex Mack C Cal
Evander Hood DT

Cory Irvin DT Georgia
Donald Washington CB OSU
TJ Lang OG/OT EMU
Jarron Gilbert DT San Jose State

DeAngelo Willingham CB Tennesee
Demetrius Byrd WR LSU
Mohammed Massaquoi WR Georgia

Johnny Knox WR Abeline Christian
Vaughn Martin DT Western Ontario

Brice McCain CB/RS Utah
Nick Hennessey OL Colgate

They won't draft 2 left tackles or 2 QBs, so if 1 is picked, the rest fall off the list, etc. However, they could take more then one DT and LB and CB, so that is not always the case.

I expect some trades down and up to happen as well, and there are many many other players they have scouted to pick from. It all depends on how things fall. That said, 7 players they would like on the team just may be on the above list, if I have done my homework correctly. They currently have 8 picks, but like I said, trades will likely happen.

(I would like to thank LionHawkeye for his scout contact list and all the people at MLive Lions Forum for their opinions on the various players that helped me form my opinions on the 2009 Lions Draft).

Friday, March 20, 2009

Lions draft strategy (as I see it today)

1. They want to trade down. They know they aren't likely to get any offers but they are feigning interest in the top 4 talents equally (almost) to make it seem as though they will or could take any one of them, just in case some other team falls for a guy and is willing to move up.

2. They would take Stafford (or Sanchez) here if they felt he was truly their QB of the future for the team. I do not believe that has happened. I believe they are looking at him in depth to verify not that they should take him but that they are right not to take him. Meanwhile, they also get more of #1 above in at the same time.

3. The Lions want to draft Curry. They do not, however, want to pay him a #1 contract. The odds of the agent going below the slotted amount (based on last year's #1 contract) is very very low. They are still trying every trick in the book though to get the young man to agree to a LB friendly contract at #1. It may even work... I had doubted it completely just a week ago, now, I'm starting to wonder... if it were up to Curry alone it may be a non-issue, but it is not up to Curry alone, players don't pay an agent all that money and not listen to them. No LB friendly contract and the ruthless Mayhew goes on to plan c.

4. (Plan C). They will take a LT, I am not yet sure if it'll be Monroe or J Smith. Last year's coaching staff would've gone with Smith. This year's, probably Monroe. Monroe's knees are no longer an issue, and Smith says all the right things. I have gone back and forth with the two myself, today I'm leaning toward Monroe as the pick.

So, it's trade if possible but not likely. Verified they do not want a QB. Taking Curry if the contract is right. Taking Monroe (LT) at #1 if there is no trade and no LB friendly contract.

That is (currently) the way I see it.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

#1 Pick Overall.

The Lions had the 30th ranked offense, and the 32nd ranked defense. They could use an infusion of talent at nearly every position. However, the cupboard is not totally bare and there are a number of players that will be a part of the next rebuild. That said, the Lions have the #1 pick in the 2009 draft. What position to address? Which player to choose?

For a team to win you need many components. Good scheme, good coaching, usually you need a healthy cap situation (especially if you're building a team from the bottom up), and good players. You also need to field a team of 53 players total, with 11 starters on O and 11 starters on D.

The Lions have 56 players already under contract for 2009, plus they have the upcoming free agency and the upcoming draft. They need to fill some of the starting positions that currently do not have a starter in them due to that player's contract expiring. For example, they do not have a kicker. They do need to sign one, preferably Jason Hanson, who it sounds like will come back to the team. Another "hole" is at MLB. Paris Lenon is a free agent and I can not foresee him getting signed back up for the job. That does not mean that you take a kicker or a MLB first overall in the draft, you still need a scheme and coaches and to work within the salary cap, as well as build the team. It is irresponsible to sign a rookie MLB to a $60 million 5 year contract with $30 million guaranteed. That is more then any current NFL MLB makes. If you want to spend that much on a LB, get one in free agency, over pay him by 50% and you still won't spend as much cap as you would on one with the first pick in the draft.

So, you fill the MLB spot with either a FA or later draft pick. Period. And you do that after you have your coaching and scheme and plan in place.

Back to the Lions first draft pick, who to take. The salary cap dictates you will choose from QB, LT, DE, DT, RB, WR or if you really really stretch it to the max, CB. The last being such a stretch it probably won't and shouldn't happen. The Lions don't need a #1 WR, they need a #2. The Lions don't need a #1 RB, they need a #2. Many think that Avril and White can handle DE with a couple decent #2's coming in rotation. That leaves QB, LT, and DT.

One of those 3 positions will be the Lions first pick in the draft (barring a trade).

Does it matter which? Not according to the salary cap, no. Not according to a hole in the roster, since all three have players for that position, albeit not great ones. So, do you draft based on who you like? No. You base it on which of the players at those positions is the best and how that will translate into the NFL. The first being easier to figure out then the latter.

There are currently at least 3 names being bandied about each for QB and LT, and a couple for DT, though it's not expected that any DT will be deemed "best" when placed against the QBs and LTs coming out. Of course, there is still a coaching staff/scheme to get, and that could change matters, and there is still the combine, which will also alter things somewhat (that's where the mental aspect and the translation into the NFL guesses come into play).

You can't even go by history, as it shows many busts with the Juniors who come out at both QB and LT, many more busts then great players.

You can't even use the argument that you can get one later, since you can get a QB or a LT or a DT later. In fact, more QBs taken 3rd (in the 9th to 15th spots) have turned out better then QBs taken in the top 3, for example.

No, what needs and probably (hopefully) will happen is the candidates are rated, contract talks will begin, and of those who agree to a contract prior to the draft one will be selected, barring any trade offers. Whether it's a QB, LT or DT does not matter, any of the three will upgrade but one position on the team, a very important position, and will be in camp on time. That is what matters.

The rest of the draft AND free agency (along with coach selection and scheme implementation) is actually what will fix the most of the team, not just the first overall pick. That can only fix one spot, and only then if it's the right choice.

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

The day after….

The Lions fired head coach Rod Marinelli, his son-in-law and defensive coordinator Joe Barry, Barry’s father, and a few other position coaches, the day after officially becoming the worst team in NFL history. They demoted Colletto from offensive coordinator to offensive line coach, and promoted Martin Mayhew to GM and Tom Lewand to President. Now Lewand and Mayhew are looking for a personnel guy to work under Mayhew, and a new head coach who can then start shaping his coaching staff. Since guys like Pioli of the New England Patriots already hold a position equal to what the Lions are looking for, he and guys in the same position as he may not be hired away by the Lions… so one would assume they are looking at assistant personnel directors of other teams to hire in as personnel director and assistant GM (General Manager).

Mr. Ford Sr did not look outside the organization for a new front office, did not seek advice from the NFL (or if he did, he’s not saying), and saved a ton of cash by not brooming out the entire front office (most of whom are still under contract). Many say that is crazy after going 0-16 and with the need to completely revamp the entire team, some are taking either Lewand’s or Mayhew’s side (or both) and believing that it will work. I am torn.

{carefully gets up on the fence, notes it’s not as easy as it used to be}

First, there’s Tom Lewand. He’s handling the business/legal side of the operation. He was Ford Jr’s man in a manner of speaking, and had to earn Ford Sr’s trust, which he obviously has done. The only way that a new CEO/President was coming in to replace Matt Millen was if Ford Sr. distrusted Lewand and went outside the team to secure a new, hopefully experienced executive to take over the whole thing. Many have reservations about Tom Lewand, but he is now the top dog, there is no longer anywhere to hide and no one to hide behind, so we shall see how well he functions at his new position of power with the Detroit Lions.

Second, there’s Martin Mayhew. He’s handling the “football side” of the Lions now as the designated General Manager. He got the job without having to interview, without having to go up against other candidates, and there are a large number of people who do not approve of this. However, he would’ve been one of the interviewees should it have gone that way, and apparently he has presented a detailed plan to Ford Sr on how to build AND maintain a good football team. There has been a lot of mention of this plan, and how good it is, but so far I haven’t actually seen it. Perhaps it’s top secret. Anyway, he’s the guy now on the football side, and he and Lewand will be making the decisions, including when to bow to Ford Sr’s wishes, and they are now going to proceed to hire someone to run the scouting department. Their selection should shine some light on how good or bad they will be at their new jobs. One thing they do have going for them is their decision to fire the previous head coach and other coaching moves. There was a lot of worry that most of them would be retained, even after going 0-16. Between that move and the trade they got for Roy Williams there is some room for optimism… cautious as it may be.

Mayhew is a lawyer. He has helped Lewand with contracts, even getting some reluctant players to sign when talks broke down, but he is more then that. He worked in the personnel department for the Redskins long before working in Detroit, and he is a former player. In fact, he has a superbowl ring from his days as a cornerback for the Redskin, the year was 1991, the team they beat to get into the superbowl was none other then the Detroit Lions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_playoffs,_1991-92

Even with those positives, neither man has ever run a draft, ever hired a head coach, or for that matter, ever been in the top ranks of a successful team. They are… inexperienced. Now, all good options that Ford Sr passed up were once inexperienced as well, so that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing, but it is worrisome. The Lions could’ve used some previously successful experienced people to turn this around, it might have sat better with the fans, the media, and the others on the team. Instead we now have to wait, to see if these guys can put together a team that can succeed.

I shall sit up here on my fence, watching. Day one was a good start, let’s see what the coming days have in store for us. (note: I did not get to see the press conference day 2 so I have no opinion on how that turned out).

If nothing else, you could say that Mayhew owes us one for 1991.

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Game 16 Analysis.

The Lions have done the impossible… or at least, the improbable. They stole the record made by the Tampa Bay Bucs in 1976 (32 years ago) by going an entire season without a win. They were able to beat the Bucs record due to the fact that the Lions lost all 16 games while the Bucs played and lost 14 games, that being the total number of games in a season back then. So, unless the NFL increases the number of games in a season again, the Lions will forever hold the record, and perhaps will anyway, as it's excessively difficult to lose an entire season's worth of games. Especially after being the only team in the NFL to win all 4 of the preseason games. A feat that may never be topped… ever… in not only our lifetime but in anyone else's lifetime as well. Wow. Way to go team!

Team being the word here. It was the team who failed to garner a win this year… that includes every scout, every coach, every player and everyone else involved with the team. Anyone on the team who tries to blame anyone else had better been upset all year long with every move made. Of course, that kind of leadership is rewarded by getting fired, getting cut, getting traded, or put on IR (injured reserve).

So, what happens to everyone when the team goes 0-16 for the year? Well, if it was the teams' first year, you might get a second chance. But if it were the 8th year of the front office and the 3rd year of the head coach then in 31 out of 32 teams everyone would get fired. Monday. Time to start over. But the 32nd team is the Detroit Lions owned by William Ford Sr. Thus, Monday could just be another day instead.

I guess in some perverse way that makes sense, after all, the odds of losing all 16 games in one year are about the same as the odds of the employees remaining on the job after their team goes 0-16.

Okay, let's just cross our fingers and see what Monday brings, shall we (and cross anything else you have as well, just for extra luck).

Now to the game. The lions actually had a small chance of pulling this one off… except for the coaches who don't know how to win, and the players who were coached by them being the same. I mean, if you have two star players in CJ and Kevin Smith, and one is on the sidelines, then everyone including my dog knew the defense was going after the one left on the field. But did they call plays to anyone else during those times? No, only when they were both on the field and could've helped make a play.

The final two minutes of the first half were such a poor handling of the clock that I'm still dumbfounded. I can't even explain what happened without my blood pressure rising, and I thought I was numb to anything the OC could do by now.

The defense did great when they brought pressure, all kinds of good things happened. But then the coaching started getting conservative again; as if giving the 8th best QB in the league more time was a great idea. Boy, was I surprised when the Lions defense then got burned (that was sarcasm by the way, I think I heard my dog even say they got to stop giving that QB all that time, but it may have just been the wind).

Anyway, not to be outdone, the special teams had to go special ed.

Oh well, as of right now Paris Lenon is without a contract, let's keep it that way shall we? There are also a number of other players that need to go, including most of the former Tampa Bay Bucs players that were brought in this off season… hmmm… Bucs players and coaches… this team took away the Bucs losing record… coincidence? Yeah, it was, but of the stupid kind.

So in the future I will explore the players who are gone, should go, need to be upgraded, etc etc etc, and if everyone continues praying really really hard, perhaps discussions on new coaches as well.

Happy Holidays everyone, and please do try to get beyond this day, the worst day ever to be a Lions fan, a day that will live in infamy.
(Infamy: disgrace, dishonor, shame, etc).

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Game 15 Analysis (and the coaching staff and draft pick status)

Game 15 Analysis


Lions have lost 15 in a row this year (so far) and many more if you go back into last season. They haven't won at Lambeau Field since 1991 ( a very good year by Lions standards ). With the final game of this season at Green Bay it's nearly a lock that the Lions go 0-16. The only way that won't happen is if the defense somehow can stop the Packers (or more likely, the Packers offense stops themselves) and CJ and Kevin Smith can put the team on their shoulders and carry them to a win… this is assuming the wonderous coaching staff actually attempts to get them both the ball as much as possible… at least 80% of the plays needs to go to one of those two players for the Lions to have a chance of winning and keeping themselves out of the record books for decades to come.

The Lions (Mr Ford Sr actually) have announced that both Lewand and Mayhew will both be employed by the Lions next year. This stunning announcement came just after the completion of the 0-15 record but was made previous to the start of the game as I understand it. http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2008/12/ford_new_hire_might_not_fill_t.html

That being the case, then there isn't any chance of the Lions operation being turned over to someone who will then have total control. Control would be advocated before the hire due to Ford Sr's demands that Lewand and Mayhew be kept. That also doesn't bode well for a complete revamp of the scouting department or any other group of people that Ford Sr likes. Production does not seem to be a requirement for employment, only your likeability by Ford Sr. There is still a bit over a week to go, and Ford Sr's reluctance to state that Marinelli is definitely coming back like he did say about Lewand and Mayhew is telling (to me at least). I can think of no candidate that would share power instead of total control, and for some, they wouldn't even be able to be hired as it would not constitute a promotion, but I can think of a coach or two that might like to have "some" power as well as be the head coach. Perhaps that is the direction Ford Sr has plans to go in.

Finally, since Ford Sr appears that he is going to keep a hand in things I am calling it tonight, the Lions will draft a QB with the first overall pick which they also earned today (the first overall pick that is, no team can go 1-15 to tie them even). All that remains now is to see who the coaching staff will be and which of the two QBs will be taken at first overall… and that may depend more on their agents then on the Lions (first one to agree to a contract wins unless they both do).

That's the way I see it, at least, at this point in time.