Sunday, May 1, 2016

The day after...

Facts, Assumptions, Hypotheses, and more.

When those who watch film on draft prospects do so and write up profiles they tend to watch 2 to 4 games or thereabouts and write their material. There is only so much time from the end of the college season, the bowl games, the deadline for declaring for the draft (Juniors) and then the combine and pro days in which to do the write ups... and there are literally hundreds of players to watch film on. It all takes time, a lot of time. Even with just those few games in the mix. This is not something new for me, it is why I usually review more then one source on the players I write about. Unfortunately, at times, the various resources I use watch the same or nearly the same games. What I am trying to say is, the information I have isn't always accurate. The same goes for anyone who doesn't watch EVERY game of a player. Other then college fans and those who employ multiple people to review a smaller group of prospects at a time, this is the same for every one. Most of the sites you readers frequent are the same way. A game or three, and write the profile. Plenty of room for error. Such is the waters in which we tread.

Why am I explaining this? Because my blog entries following each portion of the draft likely provided inaccurate or incomplete information. It wasn't intentional, in fact had I not received so many comments, objections, and so forth I may have never re-visited this at all... but when one is presented with new information it is only prudent to re-examine things with a more open mind... and attempt to determine where things went astray. I have pretty much spent the past 24 hours doing just that. So now you know why I started this entry with the above information.

Rather then present everything in order of the draft, or in the order of my research, time for some scatter shot. The 3rd pick in round 6 was for a long snapper. I vehemently disagreed with this pick. I felt that it was a waste of a pick, that the guy could've been drafted in round 7 or even signed as a free agent after the draft. All of that is likely true... but there is no guarantee that Landes would sign with the Lions as an undrafted, and Quinn had a different plan for round 7 (more on that in a bit). But why a long snapper at all? Because Quinn was trained in the NFL by one source only, the Patriots. How many old Patriots players are there on that team? I looked it up some hours ago; there are a couple at age 30, a couple at age 31, and a couple at age 32... then one 39 year old (Tom Brady). The entire rest of the roster is under 30 years of age. The Lions long snapper is 35. Yeah he can still play, but when has that ever mattered to the Patriots? Answer... it doesn't. They always get rid of players before (not after) they show their age. I thought I was prepared for this, but I was not. Now I am. IF this draft pick works out, Muhlbach is a goner. If it does not, Muhlbach remains and they try again next year. Simple. Ruthless; but simple. Understandable... now. It was not last night immediately following the draft. For future reference, any Lions player approaching 32 years of age is likely subject to an abrupt exit at any moment... ready or not.

Another hypothesis, round 7 of the draft. A little while after realizing the age thing and why the long snapper pick it occurred to me to see what else the Patriots do that might help me understand things a bit more. In reviewing their last pick of the draft it would seem that perhaps the Patriots use that pick for their 'long shot'. Most of the draft is well targeted, relatively safe (character guys, hard workers, fit the suit, etc)... but it would appear to me that round 7 is used to gamble. Take a high risk high reward player and see what happens. I believe, now, that that is what the Lions did with the RB Washington pick. It may very well be this particular players only chance to make an NFL roster, I hope he makes the most of it.

Now back to the film review and profiles. Another player drafted day 3 was a QB named Rudock. His profiles (that I read) are not, shall we say, glowing. However, I am given to understand that he finished a much stronger QB then he started, meaning his new coach was bringing him up over the course of the season to be a much better player then when the season began. Therefor, any film reviewed from early in the season is not going to accurately reflect his abilities as they grew to be. That does not alter my concern that his small frame might not be able to take NFL punishment... but then, as I was further told, unless Stafford becomes injured it's unlikely Rudock will see any snaps anyway. On top of that, I proceeded to read other profiles, finding some that were at odds with the originals, and it's also possible that further progress can be made upon his abilities and his muscle mass over the course of this season.

I've begun looking into some of the undrafted players the Lions signed, a couple I am finding very intriguing already. My next blog entry will include info on a guard who's very likely to make the final roster, and a tight end as well. In fact, both of them could very well prove to be every bit as good as picks from the first 2 days, and perhaps, just perhaps, even better. Believe it or not. Still, since undrafted players are not confirmed until the contracts are sent in on Monday I'm going to hold off on that information. Plus reports have it that 12 guys are signed, but there was only room on the roster for 11. So something is off there.

After the undrafted report I shall dig deeper into the 10 players from the actual draft and attempt to include a wider range of information in the hopes of presenting a more accurate picture. Not just for my readers, but for myself as well. Who knows, perhaps even more insights will be forthcoming over the next few days.

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