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Thursday, April 19, 2012

Lions Draft Board

The Pro days are over, player visits are done, teams are now preparing in house for the draft which is less then a week away. The Lions are compiling their notes and preparing to mock draft scenarios out to determine a game plan that will probably be thrown out within an hour after the Draft starts.

No one knows who the Lions will draft or who will be available when they pick. Will they target a player and trade up or will they trade down... the sheer range of options is, well, intriguing (not quite overwhelming, ha!).

Too bad there isn't a way to trim the list of options down a bit. Well, it just so happens there might be a way to do that.

For the past couple of years I've been working out various methods to rank players just to see if I can get closer to possibly how the Lions rank their players. At the same time, someone from my forum http://badnetrat.proboards.com named LionHawk has been creating a contact list each year. Last year, every single player drafted by the Lions was on that contact list. He can explain how he comes up with the contact list better then I, but it accounts for pro-days, Combine, Allen Park visits, and Senior bowl. It is roughly 100 names long.

Sometimes a contact is made to verify health issues. Sometimes to ask about another player. Sometimes the team sends a DB coach to actually watch WRs. There is almost a science to it, determining who is a potential Lions draft pick and who is not. Plus, you never can tell if you have all the information or not. But since that's all I have to work with, and since it was 100% accurate for the 2011 draft, I'm ready to go with it.

What can this contact list tell us this year? A lot of things really. In no particular order we got...

The only Long Snapper (1) and Tight End (1) on the list are expected to be UDFAs.

Just about every Running Back expected to be drafted in the top 3 rounds are on the list (only exception appears to be Bernard Pierce from Temple, if he's considered a 3rd rounder).

Just 2 Safeties that will get drafted are on the list, with 4 more UDFAs.

All 7 of the LBs on the list are expected to be drafted.

There are as many DEs on the list as CBs, WRs, OTs, and RBs. Many of each position in the first 3 rounds. However, while DEs, CBs, OTs and RBs have 7 each in the top 100 only 3 WRs made the list leaving 11 WRs for rounds 4 through Undrafted.

QB does not appear on the list, however, I suspect they may have done that on purpose so no team will know who their hopeful project QB is... but that's just my guess.

There are 16 on the list who could go in round 1, 13 from round 2 and 13 from round 3. That's only 8 shy of half the entire list. 30 are not expected to get drafted and will become UDFAs (undrafted free agents). That leaves less then 30 names on the list for rounds 4 through 7.

6 of the possible 16 first rounders on the list are in my top 15 and thus shouldn't be there when the Lions pick at 23... if the Lions stay put at pick 23.

Of the 10 first rounders not in the top 15 you have (1) Safety, (2) Cornerbacks, (1) Defensive End, (1) Center, (1) Guard (1) Guard/Tackle, (1) Tackle, and (2) Running Backs. Or if you prefer; (3) DBs, (1) DE, (4) OLine, and (2) RBs. Most say the (2) RBs will fall into round 2 or at least the very bottom of round 1 (trade down?).

That's enough of my interpretation of Lionshawk's list, you can visit the forum to discuss it further if you wish. However, that's not going to stop me from using it and my top 100 ranking to give up 5 names in each of the first 3 rounds that I envision the Lions drafting if they are still there (and don't trade out of their spots).

1st Round
Mark Barron SS Alabama
Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Nick Perry DE USC

2nd Round
Amini Silatolu OG Midwestern State (Texas)
Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Zach Brown OLB North Carolina
Brandon Boykin CB-KR Georgia
Kelechi Osemele OT-OG Iowa State

3rd Round
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
Marvin Jones WR California
Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois
Ben Jones C Georgia

As an FYI, I'm all for any of these players being drafted, plus some names not listed here... but I got to say, a draft of...

Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
Devon Wylie WR Fresno State (round 4)

...would pretty much make my day.

1 comment:

discodan said...

Nice site Netrat,
Maybe these guys are worthy of your writing...
Discodan, from the Detroit news Blog.