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Saturday, February 11, 2012

An Update to the Lions Salary Cap Picture

Since so many sites are quoting a number that I am not quoting, I figured I'd present my information and see if anyone can add (or subtract) from it.

First, the facts:

I (nor anyone else) still don't have any idea what the 2012 salary cap (unadjusted) will be for all 32 teams... yet. I'm going to guess $125.5 million which is the high end of all the guesses out there.

All 32 teams have the option of carrying over their unused cap from last year. Who has and how much has not been released yet. I suspect the Lions will but I suspect they have only $1.5 mill or less to carryover.

All 32 teams will have an adjustment to their cap. They will have all LTBE (likely to be earned) bonuses that were NOT met added to their cap and all NLTBE (not likely to be earned) bonuses that WERE met subtracted from their cap. I already know that CJ hit one of his NLTBE bonuses for around $4.5 million... I don't know if anyone else did or if anyone missed their LTBE bonuses.

I know all 32 teams have the option of borrowing from the future $1.5 million in cap for some veterans on the team (as long as they don't get cut). I suspect the Lions will do this.

I know the Lions have 46 players signed and I know exactly what their salaries (only salaries, not bonuses or any allocations) equal. These are:

Player Name Position Compensation

Bell, Joique RB $540,000
Berry, Aaron CB $415,000
Best, Jahvid RB $640,500
Burleson, Nate WR $4,000,000
Carey, Don CB $540,000
Cherilus, Gosder OL $2,310,000
Chinasa, Ugo DE $390,000
Culbreath, Johnny OL $390,000
Delmas, Louis S $973,250
Donahue, Ryan P/K $465,000
Durant, Justin LB $1,750,000
Fairley, Nick DT $824,500
Fox, Jason OL $490,000
Gandy, Dylan OL $850,000
Gerberry, Dan OL $390,000
Hanson, Jason P/K $2,550,000
Harris, Marcus WR $390,000
Heller, Will TE $900,000
Hogue, Doug LB $465,000
Houston, Chris CB $3,000,000
Hughes, Nate WR $465,000
Jackson, Lawrence DE $915,000
Johnson, Calvin WR $14,000,000
LeShoure, Mikel RB $465,000
Logan, Stefan WR $615,000
McClendon, Jacques OL $540,000
Norris, Slade DE $540,000
Overbay, Nathan TE $390,000
Peterman, Stephen OL $2,725,000
Pettigrew, Brandon TE $1,062,500
Raiola, Dominic OL $3,400,000
Scheffler, Tony TE $1,550,000
Silva, Ricardo S $465,000
Sims, Rob OL $1,500,000
Smith, Alphonso CB $695,000
Spievey, Amari S $490,000
Stafford, Matthew QB $11,500,000
Suh, Ndamukong DT $9,250,000
Toliver, Terrence WR $390,000
Vanden Bosch, Kyle DE $5,000,000
Weaver, Ross CB $390,000
Wendling, John S $700,000
Williams, Corey DT $4,900,000
Williams, Keiland RB $490,000
Young, Titus WR $465,000
Young, Willie DE $490,000

Total salaries only for these 46 players = $85,665,750

Now for a couple of more guesses... I think the 46 players have various roster and workout bonuses that will cost the cap $5,254,728

I think the 46 players have signing bonus allocations (from prior years that are being allocated over the life of their contracts) that will cost the 2012 cap $22,568,156

So when I add up $85,665,750 which is accurate to $5,254,728 which is a semi-solid guesstimate to the $22,568,156 allocations which is also only a semi-solid guesstimate I come up with $113,488,634 in cap space used up.

Now I take my guesstimate of the unadjusted salary cap for all 32 teams of $125.5 million, the Lions carryover from 2011 guesstimate of $1.5 million, the Lions LTBE and NLTBE cap adjustment guesstimate of negative $4.5 mill and I guesstimate the Lions will borrow the full $1.5 mill from the future cap and I get an adjusted cap available of $124 million.

So taking my $124 million available guess and subtracting my $113,488,634 in cap space used guess I come up with the Lions have available $10,511,366.

Some sites are guessing the cap will be $120 million, not $125.5 million. That's a $5.5 mill swing. Maybe the Lions only have $5 million in cap available, that would be the low end of the guesstimates.

Some sites may or may not be including the adjustments or the carryovers, I've no way of knowing. Some might be including the adjustments as cap hits when it's not really that even if it has the same affect on the cap available. But no matter how I figure it, I can not come up with the Lions being into the cap for $122.8 million that one site stated and all the others copied (or so I assume they all copied it).


That's not to say it isn't true, only that I've absolutely no information that leads me to believe they are correct and I am not. No information at all. So I guess I'll keep looking in case I did miss something.

ps. I still believe the Lions could add as much as $15 million in cap space by restructuring 5 contracts and I still believe that they may do it, not because they have a record doing it, they only did it last year to a couple of contracts and not much before that, but because they did say they are going to be making a superbowl run and you can bet the farm they will be betting the farm.

6 comments:

kuhlio said...

According to your 2012 spreadsheet, the lions are at 114 mil with only 42 on the roster.

The lions have the 23rd pick in this years draft. If they dont trade up or down, and the contracts that they sign are the same as they were the last year, the 7 draft picks will cost them

23.) costanzo, cap hit = 1,452,500
56.) jarrett, cap hit = 654,250
87.) nevis, cap hit = 512,250
119.) Carter, cap hit = 481,301
151.) sherman, cap hit = 420,606
183.) rucker, cap hit = 400,418
215.) miller, cap hit = 387,500
(per spotrac.com)

The rookie total against the cap for the 23rd spot was 4.3 million.

If you add this number to the cap that you had figured at 114, you get 118 million.

With the addition of the 4.5 million that is going to be counted against the Lions for Calvin reaching his NLTR incentive you get 122.5 million.

If one were to assume that the cap was 120 million, I believe this is how the lions are 'projected' to be a few million over the cap at the moment.

kuhlio said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Empherical Evidence said...

Again, more great stuff. I think teams can borrow up to 2 million this year from future caps, and I do think $125 million is a reasonable guess for the final cap number.
Yep, lots of nonsense out there right now.

NetRat's Lions Blog said...

Thank you for the 23rd pick info, hadn't looked that up. I've got a number of people looking into the NLTBE bonus situation, as the $4.5 mill number is being bandied around first one way then another and the final answer may end up being both are right (and the Lions are worse off).

The borrow from the future part is $1.5 mill not $2 mill. Reporters often get the info wrong they report, which is why I'm looking into sources to see if they got it right before just believing them.

One new note, I heard that Best had a $1.1 mill LTBE bonus last year and due to injury may not have done enough to earn it, if true, that will get added to the 2012 cap.

NetRat's Lions Blog said...

The Best LTBE bonus was paid in 2011 so that won't help this year. The rest of the updates I made in a post above this one (found a few small corrections and sorted out the CJ contract numbers).

NetRat's Lions Blog said...

See item #2 about half way down this article... Lions are $11.2 mill under the cap (another number to contemplate)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/02/20/king.free.agents/index.html