Most draftnics and Lions fans continue to mock draft for the Lions based on need, or based on depth of the draft, or based on value for a pick, or any of a number of other incorrect methods that won't get them close. Others will simply say BPA (Best Player Available) and then try to wedge someone onto the roster still based on need but insisting that "such and such player" IS the best player available for the Lions to pick. Still others will say they (the Lions) can get a -insert position here- later in the draft and won't draft this or that player at this or that draft spot. And finally, there's the group that says the Lions won't draft this or that player because they don't need a player at that position or that particular player because of his history.
Somewhere in that mix there are a few who realize that the Lions won't draft certain players because those specific players don't fit what they do or if they do fit what they do, there is no roster spot for the player. Now even though that small group is closer to correct then the rest, they are still off on one thing, if a high enough ranked player drops to the Lions and they can't get decent value to trade out of their spot they will take said player. Should you have read all my blog posts you would probably figure I fit into this last group (and you would be right) and you would also know I got caught being wrong when the Lions DID in fact draft a defensive tackle last year despite my insistence they would not.
Hold up, say the BPA crowd, taking Fairley was what they should've done. But BPA means they won't package picks and trade up to target LeShoure, or Jahvid Best the year before. The Lions did not wait until it was their turn and then take the BPA, they targeted a specific player and went after him. How does that fit in with BPA?
Just what is the Lions draft plan?
In order to figure that out, you need to change the way you think about the draft.
The Lions do not see the draft as a way to fill a need, the Lions see it as a way to add talent to the roster... the entire roster.
Unlike free agency the salary cap isn't a part of the equation and so the Lions are free to add whatever talent they can acquire. They want the best they can possibly get whenever they draft a player.
You also have to drop the notion that the Lions aren't set at a position. That they have holes in the roster. As far as the front office is concerned, the Lions can and would field a team based on their current roster. That doesn't mean the current roster are guaranteed jobs, in fact, they are not (well, most of the players are not anyway). Some contracts guarantee certain players will in fact make the final roster but the majority of the team have no such guarantee. So while they would field a team of 53 from their current set of contracts they aren't against upgrading anywhere they can.
Then, you have to drop the notion that the Lions ARE set at a position. As far as the front office is concerned, any position is upgradeable and will attempt to give a player a chance to win a job from another be that player a free agent or a draft pick.
This is the part most do not get. The Lions are perfectly happy with their roster as is, right now, without more free agency and/or without a draft. The Lions are also perfectly happy to upgrade any position on the team right now, no matter what player would have to fight for his job or risk being cut (or traded). Because they are happy with their current roster they will often times take the best player available (based on their ranking criteria) and allow that player to compete for a job. However, because they are perfectly willing to upgrade any position on the roster they will target certain players who they have ranked substantially higher then their current roster and position themselves (via trade) to take that player.
Either way, they are in fact adding talent to the roster. Someone gets added, someone else doesn't make the final roster (or gets traded away). The team as a whole improves.
Yeah, that might mean they draft a DT, a RB, and a WR when they "need" a CB, OT, and LB. In the end though, the team as a whole improved talent-wise even if a specific position group did not. You keep doing that and you keep fielding a team with talent... instead of a team with no talent who goes 0-16.
The players on the roster have been ranked. The players in the draft are being ranked. The Lions will be looking to add talent to their roster in the draft, whether they target a specific player and go get him or take the BPA that falls to them at their draft spot remains to be seen. At some point it is simply not worth trading (up or down) if the "dance partner" wants too much (or is offering too little) so the "plan" is somewhat dependent on what others will do (and who others take).
When the draft is over, the Lions will continue to add to the roster with players who can compete with the current roster of names in an attempt to further upgrade any and every position, even if that position is 3rd string QB or 5th string WR. An upgrade is an upgrade, the 51st through 53rd ranked guys on the roster will never ever be safe... the Lions will always be looking to get better, even if one position group suffers (a little) for a season while they build on another.
No team has a perfect roster. No team has 53 pro-bowlers. Every team has holes. As long as your team is constantly upgrading, constantly improving, they will do better then they did before. If you draft the very best player you possibly can every time you pick in the draft, you get better as a team as well. In the end, what more can you ask for?
Okay, back to the 2012 draft. Applying the Lions "draft plan" to the hundreds of draftable players and what do we get? First, the Lions may target a specific player and try to trade up to get him. If the "cost" is too high they will not pull the trigger. If the "cost" is acceptable, they trade up and pick the guy they really want. You can bet that player is an immediate starter and a definite upgrade to the current starter if it's in the first round. Someone who will be an improvement to the team for years to come. Since it's very rare to get that great trade or player in that way, it's more likely the Lions will have a group of 4 to 8 guys they want at pick #23 and will wait to see who is still there when they are on the clock. If all 4 to 8 guys are there, they will entertain offers to trade down... 3 to 7 spots... so that they can still get one of their guys. If no trades look decent, they pick... the BPA out of the group they predetermined they want. As so it'll go for each round. If it's later in the draft, the draft pick will be an option to upgrade a backup position. ALL backup positions are supposed to constantly be competing to be the starter, both right now and eventually on down the road.
The things that help a potential draft pick be ranked higher include (in no particular order) a hard worker, a strong guy, a fast player, a smart player, a leader, someone who gets along with others who are hard workers, and of course... talent. Health, be it physical or mental, are negatives. Talent still trumps physical and mental health though, so at some point even a player with negatives becomes the best player available. Some players are simply not suited to the Lions style of play and are more or less exempt from consideration.
Find a player who is very talented, a hard worker, who is strong and fast and smart, someone who is a leader and fits the Lions scheme and you probably found a player the Lions will try to move up for in order to draft him. If the cost is too much, they will simply wait and take someone else who is nearly ranked as high. If you can figure out what the other teams will do and who is left then continue looking at talent and effort and strength and speed and leadership and of course one who fits the Lions schemes and you have the pick... you had better have completely forgotten about what position that player plays as you can be sure the Lions did... at least as far as need goes. The one caveat here is that the pick must be ranked as high or higher then the current player on the roster... so unless the 23rd pick is a QB ranked higher then Stafford that QB isn't going to be picked... or a TE higher then Pettigrew... or a WR higher then Calvin Johnson... etc.
What I mean is, at pick #23, the player taken could be a CB, or a Safety, or a LB, or a DE, or a Guard, or a Tackle as long as said player is ranked higher then the current Lion holding that position. The 1st rounder is considered to be a starter, later rounds, a backup, so the ranking must match the player the draft pick will be competing against for a roster spot. What position is needed more then another is irrelevant.
The Lions draft plan is to increase the talent level of the 53 man roster. Nothing more, and most definitely, nothing less.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Lions' Salary Cap Picture as of March 30th 2012
When it comes to the Detroit Lions salary cap situation it is very rare when you get real and accurate information. Every nugget is precious and helps me to more accurately track their cap situation... that is when the new information doesn't confuse the issue. Yesterday I received a link to some of that accurate information and after studying it I'm left with only a couple of questions.
First, the information: http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/03/30/salary-cap-situation-for-each-team/
Now the specific Lions info from that link:
Detroit Lions
Current contracts: 47
Previous year carryover: $1,364,071.00
Adjustments: $2,802,484.00
Adjusted cap: $124,766,555.00
Team cap: $120,246,822.00
Cap room: $4,519,733.00
Team cash: $117,573,300.00
And now the explanation (or my interpretation) of that info going line by line. The information is based on the top 51 contracts as those are the only ones that currently count against the salary cap until the season starts. The Lions Current Contracts number is 47 because there are 4 unsigned tenders that also count against the cap. Avril's franchise tag, Levy's Hilliard's and Sammie Lee Hill's restricted free agent tenders.
It was reported elsewhere multiple times that the Lions carryover from 2011 was $1.3 million. The accurate number is actually $1,364,071.00 (a great example of why it's so hard to be accurate). This was information I did not have until yesterday.
The Lions have Adjustments of $2,802,484.00. This number would normally consist of LTBE (Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were not earned last year and thus carried over to this year along with NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were actually earned last year and thus have to come off of this year's cap figure. This year it also includes a $1.6 million addition courtesy of the Redskins and Cowboys. What I don't know and my question is, does it include the $1.5 million a team can borrow from 2015-2017? Did the Lions do that yet or are they saving it? I can not deduce that from the information provided so I will assume it does not yet include this number. I'm guessing. I could be in error. But I have nothing to go on other then that the Lions are likely to wait until they absolutely need it before they do it.
The Adjusted cap figure of $124,766,555.00 is the original team cap figure of $120.6 million plus the carryover plus the adjustments. I had the Lions at $125 million even counting the borrowing from the future, so this is actually a better figure then I had IF they haven't yet borrowed from the future.
Team cap of $120,246,822.00 is how much cap space the top 51 contracts are taking up. This number is $1.919 million different then what I had. This brings up questions for me as far as what did I miss? It could be one or more roster bonuses or workout bonuses that I didn't have. It could be one or more LTBE bonuses for 2012 that I don't know about. It could be some other kind of bonus not reported. Or, it could be any combination of those things. Since I do not know what I missed I had to throw the number into the "unknown bonus" cell of my chart and count it in. Even though I don't have the missing info I do now at least know exactly what number I am looking for, that's new, I did not know exactly what I was missing before. So while I don't know yet what it pertains to, I do at least know exactly how much I'm looking for.
Cap room of $4,519,733.00. This is how much salary cap space the Lions currently have to work with. It also happens to be just over what is going to be needed to sign their draft picks. They can still sign players to fill up their 80 man roster but it will have to be contracts that fall in or near the bottom of cap usage column since only the top 51 contracts count. One other point on this figure, I assume it's before the Kevin Smith contract is factored in since his numbers are not yet available from NFLPA and I assume that is where the team cap numbers I linked to came from originally. (There I go, assuming again).
Update: When those draft picks sign, they will likely land in the top 51, freeing up cap space when the same number of players who currently count stop counting. This actually means the Lions have a little more to spend on Free Agency then I let on.
The Team cash figure of $117,573,300.00 is a new number teams, or more accurately the NFL, has to keep track of to prove to the NFLPA that the new CBA is being followed as far as the floor of what has to be spent is concerned.
So there you have it. The Detroit Lions have $4,519,733.00 in cap space available which may or may not include Kevin Smith's contract which may or may not matter (if he does or doesn't hit the top 51 contracts) and it may or may not include borrowing the $1.5 million from the future that a team is allowed to do any time before the season starts.
It also means I am on the look out for cap info to explain the $1.919 million I was off, be it roster or workout bonuses, LTBE bonuses, or other bonuses for the top 51 player contracts.
First, the information: http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/03/30/salary-cap-situation-for-each-team/
Now the specific Lions info from that link:
Detroit Lions
Current contracts: 47
Previous year carryover: $1,364,071.00
Adjustments: $2,802,484.00
Adjusted cap: $124,766,555.00
Team cap: $120,246,822.00
Cap room: $4,519,733.00
Team cash: $117,573,300.00
And now the explanation (or my interpretation) of that info going line by line. The information is based on the top 51 contracts as those are the only ones that currently count against the salary cap until the season starts. The Lions Current Contracts number is 47 because there are 4 unsigned tenders that also count against the cap. Avril's franchise tag, Levy's Hilliard's and Sammie Lee Hill's restricted free agent tenders.
It was reported elsewhere multiple times that the Lions carryover from 2011 was $1.3 million. The accurate number is actually $1,364,071.00 (a great example of why it's so hard to be accurate). This was information I did not have until yesterday.
The Lions have Adjustments of $2,802,484.00. This number would normally consist of LTBE (Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were not earned last year and thus carried over to this year along with NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were actually earned last year and thus have to come off of this year's cap figure. This year it also includes a $1.6 million addition courtesy of the Redskins and Cowboys. What I don't know and my question is, does it include the $1.5 million a team can borrow from 2015-2017? Did the Lions do that yet or are they saving it? I can not deduce that from the information provided so I will assume it does not yet include this number. I'm guessing. I could be in error. But I have nothing to go on other then that the Lions are likely to wait until they absolutely need it before they do it.
The Adjusted cap figure of $124,766,555.00 is the original team cap figure of $120.6 million plus the carryover plus the adjustments. I had the Lions at $125 million even counting the borrowing from the future, so this is actually a better figure then I had IF they haven't yet borrowed from the future.
Team cap of $120,246,822.00 is how much cap space the top 51 contracts are taking up. This number is $1.919 million different then what I had. This brings up questions for me as far as what did I miss? It could be one or more roster bonuses or workout bonuses that I didn't have. It could be one or more LTBE bonuses for 2012 that I don't know about. It could be some other kind of bonus not reported. Or, it could be any combination of those things. Since I do not know what I missed I had to throw the number into the "unknown bonus" cell of my chart and count it in. Even though I don't have the missing info I do now at least know exactly what number I am looking for, that's new, I did not know exactly what I was missing before. So while I don't know yet what it pertains to, I do at least know exactly how much I'm looking for.
Cap room of $4,519,733.00. This is how much salary cap space the Lions currently have to work with. It also happens to be just over what is going to be needed to sign their draft picks. They can still sign players to fill up their 80 man roster but it will have to be contracts that fall in or near the bottom of cap usage column since only the top 51 contracts count. One other point on this figure, I assume it's before the Kevin Smith contract is factored in since his numbers are not yet available from NFLPA and I assume that is where the team cap numbers I linked to came from originally. (There I go, assuming again).
Update: When those draft picks sign, they will likely land in the top 51, freeing up cap space when the same number of players who currently count stop counting. This actually means the Lions have a little more to spend on Free Agency then I let on.
The Team cash figure of $117,573,300.00 is a new number teams, or more accurately the NFL, has to keep track of to prove to the NFLPA that the new CBA is being followed as far as the floor of what has to be spent is concerned.
So there you have it. The Detroit Lions have $4,519,733.00 in cap space available which may or may not include Kevin Smith's contract which may or may not matter (if he does or doesn't hit the top 51 contracts) and it may or may not include borrowing the $1.5 million from the future that a team is allowed to do any time before the season starts.
It also means I am on the look out for cap info to explain the $1.919 million I was off, be it roster or workout bonuses, LTBE bonuses, or other bonuses for the top 51 player contracts.
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Lions off season and their depth chart /. roster
The Detroit Lions have 46 players under contract at this point in time. They also have half that number in guys who will be free agents if they are not signed or in the case of 4 of them, tendered an offer, by March 13th at 4:00pm. Getting some of those potential free agents signed is no easy thing as several may want to test free agency regardless of any offers. Getting the players they want to keep is further complicated by the fact they have to be under the (as yet unannounced) salary cap with their top 51 contracts by 4pm on March 13th as well. As explained below the Lions may have as much as $11 million (or as little as no) salary cap available at this point in time (one source says $11 million, others none, and I have them at around $8 million). However, they could free up cap space by signing Calvin Johnson to a new contract, as much as $13.5 million in fact. They could also restructure as many as 5 contracts freeing upwards of $17 million more if they truly wanted to... but it would have to be for a very good reason as whatever cap is freed up will reduce future cap by the same amount one way or another (unless a signed player is outright cut).
With all this in mind, let's take a look at the Lions Depth Chart (ie: Roster) in detail. We'll start with the offense and closest to the ball working our way out.
At Center we have Dominic Raiola and his backup C/G Dylan Gandy and the on again off again 3rd string player C/G Dan Gerberry. Raiola still has years left on his contract, he is extremely good at identifying defenses and he calls all the OLine plays. He is nearly totally useless in the short yardage run plays but that is his only negative. That makes him one of the coaches favorites (despite the 3rd or 4th and 1 issue) and he's not going to be going anywhere. That said, he's no spring chicken and a replacement center of the future needs to be developed behind him. I'm not sure if Gerberry or Gandy is that player, the Lions will likely bring in at least one guy to compete against those two for the backup job, and if the guy can play guard so much the better. This will not be a free agent though, it will be someone in the draft or even an undrafted player, or one of each possibly. If the guy could play the long snapper position too, he'd probably be a lock to make the team. Dan Muhlbach is a free agent and remains unsigned. I can't rule out a first round pick for the backup/developmental center job, but I do find that highly unlikely based on how long it would be before the draft pick would become a big contributor to the team.
The starting guards are Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman. Their backups are the same dudes who are backing up the center position (see above). I can almost guarantee the Lions will draft at least one guard to compete against Gandy, Gerberry, and to be honest, Peterman. With a $2.725 million salary I don't think the Lions will cut Peterman, at least not unless he loses his starting job to said draft pick, but they could if they need the cap space. Drafting a starting guard in round 1 is not where you would normally take one unless he was ready made to start immediately, so this situation does bear watching. A later round draft pick may find it harder to win the starting job but if the guy can backup the center position too as he's being developed it could be an interesting cut down day in August.
The starting tackles are Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus. Jeff Backus is a free agent who will likely be re-signed by the Lions. As beerlion posted in my forum, Backus started the year recovering from a pec injury but in the final 8 games of the year he was the best LT in ... the entire NFL (yeah, he was, really). Gosder has a tendency to end up in the coaches dog house at least once each year but plays semi-solid when he's trying to. This lack of consistency is driving the coaches crazy and if they ever find a replacement RT I think Cherilus is a goner. His backup is Corey Hilliard, but he's a free agent. The other two tackles are Jason Fox and Johnny Culbreath. Fox has been injured so much no one knows if he can play LT and Culbreath was recently caught hiding two joints in a hotel hallway desk. Cutting Cherilus frees up $2.89 million in cap but that leaves the Lions without a starting RT. Like Peterman, I can see the Lions drafting someone to challenge for the starting job, and if obtained, cut down day in August becomes interesting for a second reason.
All 3 of the Lions TEs (Pettigrew, Schefler, and Heller) are signed for 2012, the Lions will bring in at least one more to keep them honest but I don't expect much to happen to this group.
At Running Back we have a M.A.S.H. unit. Jahvid Best is the starter, but how many more concussions he can take is at issue. If he were a cat I'd say he has run out of lives and the next one is the end. Mikel LeShoure was drafted to be the short yardage back but his foot injury is extemely hard to come back from. He may never make an NFL roster in his lifetime, or he may come back fully recovered and play for the Lions for years. It is not even 50/50. More like 5/95. Past players with this injury who came back and had successful NFL careers rate way under 5%. Kevin Smith has the heart of a Lion but is a free agent. Then there's Joique Bell and Keiland Williams. Jerome Harrison and Maurice Morris are also free agents. The Lions probably will draft a RB to compete with whichever of these players can be healthy enough to practice (and in 3 cases, if they get re-signed even). Keep an eye on the rounds after round 1.
At Wide Receiver there's Calvin Johnson (the best in the NFL), Nate Burleson, Titus Young all under contract along with Stefan Logan and Nate Hughes. The Lions might re-sign free agent Rashied Davis who plays special teams well and can also play back up cornerback. I suggest they re-sign him at least. Maurice Stovall probably won't be offered a contract to come back to the Lions. For those counting, that does leave an opening, someone to compete with Hughes for the last spot if Rashied comes back or to fill the roster spot he leaves behind. This might be a free agent, a trade, a draft pick, or one of the sure to be many undrafted WRs the Lions will look at.
At Quarterback Matt Stafford is the only one with a contract. Hopefully he is still keeping his shoulders in condition as two years of therapy sure helped him in year 3. Backups Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton are free agents. I look for the Lions to re-sign Hill and Stanton will test free agency (he's looking for a #2 job at least). The Lions will be getting a QB in to camp and probably more then one to compete for the #3 job.
The Lions went with 24 on offense last year for most of the season and 26 on defense, so a really talented offensive player could take a roster spot away from one of the defensive players ... just something else to keep in mind.
In summary, the Detroit Lions will be bringing in a Guard and potentially/probably a Center, Wide Receivers, Right Tackles, a #3 QB, and a Running Back to compete for roster spots. For those saying to go with an all defensive draft this spells trouble but for the Lions it gives them the option to continue to draft the best player on their board (or near enough to the top dude anyway).
I say the Lions need to re-sign (on offense) Jeff Backus, Shaun Hill, and if possible with short contracts; Rashied Davis, Kevin Smith and Corey Hilliard. I look for Stovall, Stanton, Leonard Davis, Jerome Harrison and Maurice Morris to hit free agency.
Now for the defense. At Defensive Tackle and under contract is Suh, Fairley, and Corey Williams. They aren't going anywhere. Potential free agents Andre Fluellen and Sammie Lee Hill may test free agency and it's possible the Lions will be looking for yet another DT this off season. I don't expect it will be a first round pick however. That said, it would be nice if the Lions could get Hill re-signed, I just don't think they will have the money to do it.
At DE the big potential free agent is Cliff Avril. KVB, Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson are under contract. The Lions might franchise tag Avril if they have the cap space to give them more time to work out a contract. I really don't think they want Avril to get to free agency. I can see the Lions drafting a DE if there is a good one to be had to help the rotation, this would probably be the Fluellen roster spot, so if the draft pick is big enough to also play some DT he'll have a better chance of making the team. If Avril ends up a free agent this becomes a major hole in the defense and in fact the team.
The Lions have only 2 linebackers under contract. Doug Hogue and Justin Durant. Levy is a RFA and will probably be tendered an offer. Palmer won't be tendered but he may still end up a lion as a signed free agent. I have no idea what will happen to Bobby Carpenter. The big free agent fear here is Stephen Tulloch. The Lions really need to re-sign him. If a hole in the roster opens up due to Tulloch, Palmer or Carpenter then a game changing LB in the draft, ready to start or developmental, is almost a given.
At Cornerback the Lions have Houston, Alphonso Smith, Aaron Berry, and Don Carey under contract. Rumor is the Lions would entertain trade offers for Smith. Willing to trade and getting one are two different things though so we'll see what happens here. Free agent Eric Wright the Lions would like to re-sign. Unsigned player Brandon McDonald will probably enter free agency but may end up a Lion down the road anyway. I expect, as does most of the world, that the Lions will bring in competition from the draft at CB. Which round remains to be seen.
At Safety the only guys not under contract is Chris Harris and Erik Coleman. I think the Lions might try to re-sign Coleman but they do have Delmas, Spievey (who has yet to have a full off season at Safety) Wendling and Silva under contract. If a game changing Safety falls to the lions in the draft they could snap him up, else I'm looking for them to bring in competition for the backup roles and may the best men win.
That leaves special teams. I personally think the Lions need to re-sign Ben Graham as the punter to compete against Donahue who is under contract already as I believe Graham to be the better punter.
I already mentioned that Muhlbach is not under contract, it'll be interesting to see if the Lions allow him to go into free agency or if they will look for a new one in the draft who can also play center.
In summary, the Lions could draft any defensive position and that player would have a chance to win a roster spot.
As some of my readers know, I have the depth chart in a spreadsheet format on my website at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html ... if you click on the link and view it watch for the tabs at the bottom, I add them as the off season progresses. You can also click on File and Save if you want to save a copy on your computer to play with (helps with the what if scenarios). I only ask you do not publish it online anywhere (you know, them copyright rules and all rights reserved and all that kind of stuff).
With all this in mind, let's take a look at the Lions Depth Chart (ie: Roster) in detail. We'll start with the offense and closest to the ball working our way out.
At Center we have Dominic Raiola and his backup C/G Dylan Gandy and the on again off again 3rd string player C/G Dan Gerberry. Raiola still has years left on his contract, he is extremely good at identifying defenses and he calls all the OLine plays. He is nearly totally useless in the short yardage run plays but that is his only negative. That makes him one of the coaches favorites (despite the 3rd or 4th and 1 issue) and he's not going to be going anywhere. That said, he's no spring chicken and a replacement center of the future needs to be developed behind him. I'm not sure if Gerberry or Gandy is that player, the Lions will likely bring in at least one guy to compete against those two for the backup job, and if the guy can play guard so much the better. This will not be a free agent though, it will be someone in the draft or even an undrafted player, or one of each possibly. If the guy could play the long snapper position too, he'd probably be a lock to make the team. Dan Muhlbach is a free agent and remains unsigned. I can't rule out a first round pick for the backup/developmental center job, but I do find that highly unlikely based on how long it would be before the draft pick would become a big contributor to the team.
The starting guards are Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman. Their backups are the same dudes who are backing up the center position (see above). I can almost guarantee the Lions will draft at least one guard to compete against Gandy, Gerberry, and to be honest, Peterman. With a $2.725 million salary I don't think the Lions will cut Peterman, at least not unless he loses his starting job to said draft pick, but they could if they need the cap space. Drafting a starting guard in round 1 is not where you would normally take one unless he was ready made to start immediately, so this situation does bear watching. A later round draft pick may find it harder to win the starting job but if the guy can backup the center position too as he's being developed it could be an interesting cut down day in August.
The starting tackles are Jeff Backus and Gosder Cherilus. Jeff Backus is a free agent who will likely be re-signed by the Lions. As beerlion posted in my forum, Backus started the year recovering from a pec injury but in the final 8 games of the year he was the best LT in ... the entire NFL (yeah, he was, really). Gosder has a tendency to end up in the coaches dog house at least once each year but plays semi-solid when he's trying to. This lack of consistency is driving the coaches crazy and if they ever find a replacement RT I think Cherilus is a goner. His backup is Corey Hilliard, but he's a free agent. The other two tackles are Jason Fox and Johnny Culbreath. Fox has been injured so much no one knows if he can play LT and Culbreath was recently caught hiding two joints in a hotel hallway desk. Cutting Cherilus frees up $2.89 million in cap but that leaves the Lions without a starting RT. Like Peterman, I can see the Lions drafting someone to challenge for the starting job, and if obtained, cut down day in August becomes interesting for a second reason.
All 3 of the Lions TEs (Pettigrew, Schefler, and Heller) are signed for 2012, the Lions will bring in at least one more to keep them honest but I don't expect much to happen to this group.
At Running Back we have a M.A.S.H. unit. Jahvid Best is the starter, but how many more concussions he can take is at issue. If he were a cat I'd say he has run out of lives and the next one is the end. Mikel LeShoure was drafted to be the short yardage back but his foot injury is extemely hard to come back from. He may never make an NFL roster in his lifetime, or he may come back fully recovered and play for the Lions for years. It is not even 50/50. More like 5/95. Past players with this injury who came back and had successful NFL careers rate way under 5%. Kevin Smith has the heart of a Lion but is a free agent. Then there's Joique Bell and Keiland Williams. Jerome Harrison and Maurice Morris are also free agents. The Lions probably will draft a RB to compete with whichever of these players can be healthy enough to practice (and in 3 cases, if they get re-signed even). Keep an eye on the rounds after round 1.
At Wide Receiver there's Calvin Johnson (the best in the NFL), Nate Burleson, Titus Young all under contract along with Stefan Logan and Nate Hughes. The Lions might re-sign free agent Rashied Davis who plays special teams well and can also play back up cornerback. I suggest they re-sign him at least. Maurice Stovall probably won't be offered a contract to come back to the Lions. For those counting, that does leave an opening, someone to compete with Hughes for the last spot if Rashied comes back or to fill the roster spot he leaves behind. This might be a free agent, a trade, a draft pick, or one of the sure to be many undrafted WRs the Lions will look at.
At Quarterback Matt Stafford is the only one with a contract. Hopefully he is still keeping his shoulders in condition as two years of therapy sure helped him in year 3. Backups Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton are free agents. I look for the Lions to re-sign Hill and Stanton will test free agency (he's looking for a #2 job at least). The Lions will be getting a QB in to camp and probably more then one to compete for the #3 job.
The Lions went with 24 on offense last year for most of the season and 26 on defense, so a really talented offensive player could take a roster spot away from one of the defensive players ... just something else to keep in mind.
In summary, the Detroit Lions will be bringing in a Guard and potentially/probably a Center, Wide Receivers, Right Tackles, a #3 QB, and a Running Back to compete for roster spots. For those saying to go with an all defensive draft this spells trouble but for the Lions it gives them the option to continue to draft the best player on their board (or near enough to the top dude anyway).
I say the Lions need to re-sign (on offense) Jeff Backus, Shaun Hill, and if possible with short contracts; Rashied Davis, Kevin Smith and Corey Hilliard. I look for Stovall, Stanton, Leonard Davis, Jerome Harrison and Maurice Morris to hit free agency.
Now for the defense. At Defensive Tackle and under contract is Suh, Fairley, and Corey Williams. They aren't going anywhere. Potential free agents Andre Fluellen and Sammie Lee Hill may test free agency and it's possible the Lions will be looking for yet another DT this off season. I don't expect it will be a first round pick however. That said, it would be nice if the Lions could get Hill re-signed, I just don't think they will have the money to do it.
At DE the big potential free agent is Cliff Avril. KVB, Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson are under contract. The Lions might franchise tag Avril if they have the cap space to give them more time to work out a contract. I really don't think they want Avril to get to free agency. I can see the Lions drafting a DE if there is a good one to be had to help the rotation, this would probably be the Fluellen roster spot, so if the draft pick is big enough to also play some DT he'll have a better chance of making the team. If Avril ends up a free agent this becomes a major hole in the defense and in fact the team.
The Lions have only 2 linebackers under contract. Doug Hogue and Justin Durant. Levy is a RFA and will probably be tendered an offer. Palmer won't be tendered but he may still end up a lion as a signed free agent. I have no idea what will happen to Bobby Carpenter. The big free agent fear here is Stephen Tulloch. The Lions really need to re-sign him. If a hole in the roster opens up due to Tulloch, Palmer or Carpenter then a game changing LB in the draft, ready to start or developmental, is almost a given.
At Cornerback the Lions have Houston, Alphonso Smith, Aaron Berry, and Don Carey under contract. Rumor is the Lions would entertain trade offers for Smith. Willing to trade and getting one are two different things though so we'll see what happens here. Free agent Eric Wright the Lions would like to re-sign. Unsigned player Brandon McDonald will probably enter free agency but may end up a Lion down the road anyway. I expect, as does most of the world, that the Lions will bring in competition from the draft at CB. Which round remains to be seen.
At Safety the only guys not under contract is Chris Harris and Erik Coleman. I think the Lions might try to re-sign Coleman but they do have Delmas, Spievey (who has yet to have a full off season at Safety) Wendling and Silva under contract. If a game changing Safety falls to the lions in the draft they could snap him up, else I'm looking for them to bring in competition for the backup roles and may the best men win.
That leaves special teams. I personally think the Lions need to re-sign Ben Graham as the punter to compete against Donahue who is under contract already as I believe Graham to be the better punter.
I already mentioned that Muhlbach is not under contract, it'll be interesting to see if the Lions allow him to go into free agency or if they will look for a new one in the draft who can also play center.
In summary, the Lions could draft any defensive position and that player would have a chance to win a roster spot.
As some of my readers know, I have the depth chart in a spreadsheet format on my website at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html ... if you click on the link and view it watch for the tabs at the bottom, I add them as the off season progresses. You can also click on File and Save if you want to save a copy on your computer to play with (helps with the what if scenarios). I only ask you do not publish it online anywhere (you know, them copyright rules and all rights reserved and all that kind of stuff).
Monday, February 20, 2012
What might Calvin Johnson's contract look like?
Had someone email me asking what I think CJ's contract would be/could be. Figured I'd post my reply to that email.
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That's a hard one to predict. The Lions haven't had to sign a top tier player (non draft pick) to a new contract in a very long time and most certainly not by Mayhew, Lewand and Schwartz. I'm not entirely sure how they'll handle it. CJ's agent will look at the Larry Fitzgerald contract for the minimum numbers... 8 years, $120 million which included:
$20 million fully guaranteed
$25 million guaranteed for injury
Workout Bonus: $250,000
2012 Option Bonus: $15 million
De-escalators for less than 80 rec.
There was no signing bonus but the Lions are cap strapped so can't afford to do it the same way the Cardinals did. Plus the Lions are already on the hook for $18.5 mill this year in actual paychecks so that would be added to whatever deal could be worked out. The other thing is the Lions tend to like guaranteed money more then signing bonuses and they tend to go shorter periods but may not in this case.
My best guess (and it is a total guess) is this:
6 Year Contract with 5 year Extension. $100 million. $47 million guaranteed. $16.67 million average per year.
2012 Salary $1 million. Signing Bonus $24 million. Cap charge 2012 $5 million plus whats on the books already of roughly $3.2 million for a total cap hit of about $8.2 million. A savings to the Lions of nearly $13.5 million in cap. CJ gets $6.5 mill more in his pocket this year then old contract would've paid... part of his incentive to do it... the $25 mill is all guaranteed.
2013 Salary $3 million. Option Bonus (advance on guaranteed future money or an acceleration bonus) $20 million. Cap charge 2013 $11 million. (first year of new contract, was already under contract for 2012). All $23 million also guaranteed.
2014 Salary $6.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2014 of $15 million.
2015 Salary $13.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2015 of $22 million.
2016 Salary $14.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2016 of $23 million.
2017 Salary $15.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2017 of $24 million.
2018 Free Agent
Now having said all this, the Lions could go in an entirely different direction but I think the contract will have to exceed $15 mill a year average to beat Fitzgerald plus still include what he would've made in 2012 without signing.
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That's a hard one to predict. The Lions haven't had to sign a top tier player (non draft pick) to a new contract in a very long time and most certainly not by Mayhew, Lewand and Schwartz. I'm not entirely sure how they'll handle it. CJ's agent will look at the Larry Fitzgerald contract for the minimum numbers... 8 years, $120 million which included:
$20 million fully guaranteed
$25 million guaranteed for injury
Workout Bonus: $250,000
2012 Option Bonus: $15 million
De-escalators for less than 80 rec.
There was no signing bonus but the Lions are cap strapped so can't afford to do it the same way the Cardinals did. Plus the Lions are already on the hook for $18.5 mill this year in actual paychecks so that would be added to whatever deal could be worked out. The other thing is the Lions tend to like guaranteed money more then signing bonuses and they tend to go shorter periods but may not in this case.
My best guess (and it is a total guess) is this:
6 Year Contract with 5 year Extension. $100 million. $47 million guaranteed. $16.67 million average per year.
2012 Salary $1 million. Signing Bonus $24 million. Cap charge 2012 $5 million plus whats on the books already of roughly $3.2 million for a total cap hit of about $8.2 million. A savings to the Lions of nearly $13.5 million in cap. CJ gets $6.5 mill more in his pocket this year then old contract would've paid... part of his incentive to do it... the $25 mill is all guaranteed.
2013 Salary $3 million. Option Bonus (advance on guaranteed future money or an acceleration bonus) $20 million. Cap charge 2013 $11 million. (first year of new contract, was already under contract for 2012). All $23 million also guaranteed.
2014 Salary $6.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2014 of $15 million.
2015 Salary $13.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2015 of $22 million.
2016 Salary $14.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2016 of $23 million.
2017 Salary $15.5 million. Workout Bonus $500,000. Cap charge 2017 of $24 million.
2018 Free Agent
Now having said all this, the Lions could go in an entirely different direction but I think the contract will have to exceed $15 mill a year average to beat Fitzgerald plus still include what he would've made in 2012 without signing.
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
A 2nd update to the Lions 2012 Salary Cap picture
In my never ending quest to improve my Lions Salary Cap numbers I took some time these past few days to try to locate more accurate information. Mostly I was looking for Calvin Johnson information but as usually happens I came across a few tweaks to other players contracts as well.
What hasn't changed: At this point in time I still have the Lions with 46 players under contract and the salaries for those 46 players hasn't changed (yet). The 46 players salaries still add up to $85,665,750.
What changed a little: My signing bonus allocations were off by approximately $250,000 with there being some corrections made to Delmas, Cherilus, and CJ's contract numbers (and there might have been a few others as well, didn't keep a log book of the changes made). The signing bonus allocations (a number that can not be reduced even if the player is cut or restructures) is now at $22,256,769.
What changed a lot: Other bonuses went from around $5.25 million to $9,068,928 with the majority of that coming from Calvin Johnson's contract. Apparently his much advertised $4.5 million bonus from last year wasn't a NLTBE bonus but was instead an incentive that affects this year's cap via a roster bonus. I assume it's guaranteed. He already had a roster bonus due, but because he hit his various targets last year it increased to $4.5 million.
The good news, the Lions cap won't be adjusted downwards $4.5 million as I had expected (at least, I do not believe it will be, there is still that super outside chance that CJ gets both bonuses, it's just very very unlikely).
The bad news, my new number that the Lions have tied up into the cap is $116,991,447
Which is quite obviously not the reported $122.8 million some have quoted. Near as I can tell, everyone is reporting the same number from the same source ... too bad that source wasn't me, then they would all be reporting a different number. That said, the other source may be right, or I may be right, or more likely, the real number falls somewhere in between. I'm okay with that. I know my numbers could be off and constantly am looking out for more information to improve my accuracy. I will never submit to anyone my numbers are totally accurate.
So how much cap space do the Lions have? Depends on what numbers you want to use (I hate that answer too). Let's say the 2012 base cap number per team is $123 million. The Lions have a $1.47 million cap carryover from 2011 coming to add to that. They will also probably borrow $1.5 million from 2015-2017 in cap space and that would make it $125,970,000 or the base might be $120 mill, making the number just under $123 mill. I may be missing some bonus money still (even after triple checking everything). If I'm close, then take whichever number above you want, say the $125.97 number and subtract what I think they are in for (the $116,991,447 number) and you get they have available just under $9 million in cap space.
Hold up! They also have 7 draft picks (1 in each of rounds 1 through 5 and 2 picks in round 7) that'll probably cost them $4.3 million (at least it cost the teams who picked in those spots that much last year).
They have 4 RFA (restricted free agents) they may tender. The tender amounts are not yet set but estimates are $1,260,000 for an Original Round tender, $1,927,000 for a Second Round tender, and $2,742,000 for a First Round tender.
All this and they still haven't signed a single free agent; guys like Avril, and Tulloch, and Wright and Backus, even Muhlback and Hill or Stanton.
One good thing to note, they have 46 under contract so after signing 5 more then for each new contract the lowest one (#52) drops off the cap (only the top 51 contracts count during the off season). So after the next 5 guys are signed number 6 causes $390,000 and eventually more to drop off the cap. Not a lot but it helps.
One thing becomes clear, reducing Calvin Johnson's cap number by getting him a new extended contract would help, and re-structuring other vets to cap friendlier contracts (which hurt future years by however much it helps this year) becomes more and more important as the date of March 13th draws closer.
What hasn't changed: At this point in time I still have the Lions with 46 players under contract and the salaries for those 46 players hasn't changed (yet). The 46 players salaries still add up to $85,665,750.
What changed a little: My signing bonus allocations were off by approximately $250,000 with there being some corrections made to Delmas, Cherilus, and CJ's contract numbers (and there might have been a few others as well, didn't keep a log book of the changes made). The signing bonus allocations (a number that can not be reduced even if the player is cut or restructures) is now at $22,256,769.
What changed a lot: Other bonuses went from around $5.25 million to $9,068,928 with the majority of that coming from Calvin Johnson's contract. Apparently his much advertised $4.5 million bonus from last year wasn't a NLTBE bonus but was instead an incentive that affects this year's cap via a roster bonus. I assume it's guaranteed. He already had a roster bonus due, but because he hit his various targets last year it increased to $4.5 million.
The good news, the Lions cap won't be adjusted downwards $4.5 million as I had expected (at least, I do not believe it will be, there is still that super outside chance that CJ gets both bonuses, it's just very very unlikely).
The bad news, my new number that the Lions have tied up into the cap is $116,991,447
Which is quite obviously not the reported $122.8 million some have quoted. Near as I can tell, everyone is reporting the same number from the same source ... too bad that source wasn't me, then they would all be reporting a different number. That said, the other source may be right, or I may be right, or more likely, the real number falls somewhere in between. I'm okay with that. I know my numbers could be off and constantly am looking out for more information to improve my accuracy. I will never submit to anyone my numbers are totally accurate.
So how much cap space do the Lions have? Depends on what numbers you want to use (I hate that answer too). Let's say the 2012 base cap number per team is $123 million. The Lions have a $1.47 million cap carryover from 2011 coming to add to that. They will also probably borrow $1.5 million from 2015-2017 in cap space and that would make it $125,970,000 or the base might be $120 mill, making the number just under $123 mill. I may be missing some bonus money still (even after triple checking everything). If I'm close, then take whichever number above you want, say the $125.97 number and subtract what I think they are in for (the $116,991,447 number) and you get they have available just under $9 million in cap space.
Hold up! They also have 7 draft picks (1 in each of rounds 1 through 5 and 2 picks in round 7) that'll probably cost them $4.3 million (at least it cost the teams who picked in those spots that much last year).
They have 4 RFA (restricted free agents) they may tender. The tender amounts are not yet set but estimates are $1,260,000 for an Original Round tender, $1,927,000 for a Second Round tender, and $2,742,000 for a First Round tender.
All this and they still haven't signed a single free agent; guys like Avril, and Tulloch, and Wright and Backus, even Muhlback and Hill or Stanton.
One good thing to note, they have 46 under contract so after signing 5 more then for each new contract the lowest one (#52) drops off the cap (only the top 51 contracts count during the off season). So after the next 5 guys are signed number 6 causes $390,000 and eventually more to drop off the cap. Not a lot but it helps.
One thing becomes clear, reducing Calvin Johnson's cap number by getting him a new extended contract would help, and re-structuring other vets to cap friendlier contracts (which hurt future years by however much it helps this year) becomes more and more important as the date of March 13th draws closer.
Saturday, February 11, 2012
An Update to the Lions Salary Cap Picture
Since so many sites are quoting a number that I am not quoting, I figured I'd present my information and see if anyone can add (or subtract) from it.
First, the facts:
I (nor anyone else) still don't have any idea what the 2012 salary cap (unadjusted) will be for all 32 teams... yet. I'm going to guess $125.5 million which is the high end of all the guesses out there.
All 32 teams have the option of carrying over their unused cap from last year. Who has and how much has not been released yet. I suspect the Lions will but I suspect they have only $1.5 mill or less to carryover.
All 32 teams will have an adjustment to their cap. They will have all LTBE (likely to be earned) bonuses that were NOT met added to their cap and all NLTBE (not likely to be earned) bonuses that WERE met subtracted from their cap. I already know that CJ hit one of his NLTBE bonuses for around $4.5 million... I don't know if anyone else did or if anyone missed their LTBE bonuses.
I know all 32 teams have the option of borrowing from the future $1.5 million in cap for some veterans on the team (as long as they don't get cut). I suspect the Lions will do this.
I know the Lions have 46 players signed and I know exactly what their salaries (only salaries, not bonuses or any allocations) equal. These are:
Player Name Position Compensation
Bell, Joique RB $540,000
Berry, Aaron CB $415,000
Best, Jahvid RB $640,500
Burleson, Nate WR $4,000,000
Carey, Don CB $540,000
Cherilus, Gosder OL $2,310,000
Chinasa, Ugo DE $390,000
Culbreath, Johnny OL $390,000
Delmas, Louis S $973,250
Donahue, Ryan P/K $465,000
Durant, Justin LB $1,750,000
Fairley, Nick DT $824,500
Fox, Jason OL $490,000
Gandy, Dylan OL $850,000
Gerberry, Dan OL $390,000
Hanson, Jason P/K $2,550,000
Harris, Marcus WR $390,000
Heller, Will TE $900,000
Hogue, Doug LB $465,000
Houston, Chris CB $3,000,000
Hughes, Nate WR $465,000
Jackson, Lawrence DE $915,000
Johnson, Calvin WR $14,000,000
LeShoure, Mikel RB $465,000
Logan, Stefan WR $615,000
McClendon, Jacques OL $540,000
Norris, Slade DE $540,000
Overbay, Nathan TE $390,000
Peterman, Stephen OL $2,725,000
Pettigrew, Brandon TE $1,062,500
Raiola, Dominic OL $3,400,000
Scheffler, Tony TE $1,550,000
Silva, Ricardo S $465,000
Sims, Rob OL $1,500,000
Smith, Alphonso CB $695,000
Spievey, Amari S $490,000
Stafford, Matthew QB $11,500,000
Suh, Ndamukong DT $9,250,000
Toliver, Terrence WR $390,000
Vanden Bosch, Kyle DE $5,000,000
Weaver, Ross CB $390,000
Wendling, John S $700,000
Williams, Corey DT $4,900,000
Williams, Keiland RB $490,000
Young, Titus WR $465,000
Young, Willie DE $490,000
Total salaries only for these 46 players = $85,665,750
Now for a couple of more guesses... I think the 46 players have various roster and workout bonuses that will cost the cap $5,254,728
I think the 46 players have signing bonus allocations (from prior years that are being allocated over the life of their contracts) that will cost the 2012 cap $22,568,156
So when I add up $85,665,750 which is accurate to $5,254,728 which is a semi-solid guesstimate to the $22,568,156 allocations which is also only a semi-solid guesstimate I come up with $113,488,634 in cap space used up.
Now I take my guesstimate of the unadjusted salary cap for all 32 teams of $125.5 million, the Lions carryover from 2011 guesstimate of $1.5 million, the Lions LTBE and NLTBE cap adjustment guesstimate of negative $4.5 mill and I guesstimate the Lions will borrow the full $1.5 mill from the future cap and I get an adjusted cap available of $124 million.
So taking my $124 million available guess and subtracting my $113,488,634 in cap space used guess I come up with the Lions have available $10,511,366.
Some sites are guessing the cap will be $120 million, not $125.5 million. That's a $5.5 mill swing. Maybe the Lions only have $5 million in cap available, that would be the low end of the guesstimates.
Some sites may or may not be including the adjustments or the carryovers, I've no way of knowing. Some might be including the adjustments as cap hits when it's not really that even if it has the same affect on the cap available. But no matter how I figure it, I can not come up with the Lions being into the cap for $122.8 million that one site stated and all the others copied (or so I assume they all copied it).
That's not to say it isn't true, only that I've absolutely no information that leads me to believe they are correct and I am not. No information at all. So I guess I'll keep looking in case I did miss something.
ps. I still believe the Lions could add as much as $15 million in cap space by restructuring 5 contracts and I still believe that they may do it, not because they have a record doing it, they only did it last year to a couple of contracts and not much before that, but because they did say they are going to be making a superbowl run and you can bet the farm they will be betting the farm.
First, the facts:
I (nor anyone else) still don't have any idea what the 2012 salary cap (unadjusted) will be for all 32 teams... yet. I'm going to guess $125.5 million which is the high end of all the guesses out there.
All 32 teams have the option of carrying over their unused cap from last year. Who has and how much has not been released yet. I suspect the Lions will but I suspect they have only $1.5 mill or less to carryover.
All 32 teams will have an adjustment to their cap. They will have all LTBE (likely to be earned) bonuses that were NOT met added to their cap and all NLTBE (not likely to be earned) bonuses that WERE met subtracted from their cap. I already know that CJ hit one of his NLTBE bonuses for around $4.5 million... I don't know if anyone else did or if anyone missed their LTBE bonuses.
I know all 32 teams have the option of borrowing from the future $1.5 million in cap for some veterans on the team (as long as they don't get cut). I suspect the Lions will do this.
I know the Lions have 46 players signed and I know exactly what their salaries (only salaries, not bonuses or any allocations) equal. These are:
Player Name Position Compensation
Bell, Joique RB $540,000
Berry, Aaron CB $415,000
Best, Jahvid RB $640,500
Burleson, Nate WR $4,000,000
Carey, Don CB $540,000
Cherilus, Gosder OL $2,310,000
Chinasa, Ugo DE $390,000
Culbreath, Johnny OL $390,000
Delmas, Louis S $973,250
Donahue, Ryan P/K $465,000
Durant, Justin LB $1,750,000
Fairley, Nick DT $824,500
Fox, Jason OL $490,000
Gandy, Dylan OL $850,000
Gerberry, Dan OL $390,000
Hanson, Jason P/K $2,550,000
Harris, Marcus WR $390,000
Heller, Will TE $900,000
Hogue, Doug LB $465,000
Houston, Chris CB $3,000,000
Hughes, Nate WR $465,000
Jackson, Lawrence DE $915,000
Johnson, Calvin WR $14,000,000
LeShoure, Mikel RB $465,000
Logan, Stefan WR $615,000
McClendon, Jacques OL $540,000
Norris, Slade DE $540,000
Overbay, Nathan TE $390,000
Peterman, Stephen OL $2,725,000
Pettigrew, Brandon TE $1,062,500
Raiola, Dominic OL $3,400,000
Scheffler, Tony TE $1,550,000
Silva, Ricardo S $465,000
Sims, Rob OL $1,500,000
Smith, Alphonso CB $695,000
Spievey, Amari S $490,000
Stafford, Matthew QB $11,500,000
Suh, Ndamukong DT $9,250,000
Toliver, Terrence WR $390,000
Vanden Bosch, Kyle DE $5,000,000
Weaver, Ross CB $390,000
Wendling, John S $700,000
Williams, Corey DT $4,900,000
Williams, Keiland RB $490,000
Young, Titus WR $465,000
Young, Willie DE $490,000
Total salaries only for these 46 players = $85,665,750
Now for a couple of more guesses... I think the 46 players have various roster and workout bonuses that will cost the cap $5,254,728
I think the 46 players have signing bonus allocations (from prior years that are being allocated over the life of their contracts) that will cost the 2012 cap $22,568,156
So when I add up $85,665,750 which is accurate to $5,254,728 which is a semi-solid guesstimate to the $22,568,156 allocations which is also only a semi-solid guesstimate I come up with $113,488,634 in cap space used up.
Now I take my guesstimate of the unadjusted salary cap for all 32 teams of $125.5 million, the Lions carryover from 2011 guesstimate of $1.5 million, the Lions LTBE and NLTBE cap adjustment guesstimate of negative $4.5 mill and I guesstimate the Lions will borrow the full $1.5 mill from the future cap and I get an adjusted cap available of $124 million.
So taking my $124 million available guess and subtracting my $113,488,634 in cap space used guess I come up with the Lions have available $10,511,366.
Some sites are guessing the cap will be $120 million, not $125.5 million. That's a $5.5 mill swing. Maybe the Lions only have $5 million in cap available, that would be the low end of the guesstimates.
Some sites may or may not be including the adjustments or the carryovers, I've no way of knowing. Some might be including the adjustments as cap hits when it's not really that even if it has the same affect on the cap available. But no matter how I figure it, I can not come up with the Lions being into the cap for $122.8 million that one site stated and all the others copied (or so I assume they all copied it).
That's not to say it isn't true, only that I've absolutely no information that leads me to believe they are correct and I am not. No information at all. So I guess I'll keep looking in case I did miss something.
ps. I still believe the Lions could add as much as $15 million in cap space by restructuring 5 contracts and I still believe that they may do it, not because they have a record doing it, they only did it last year to a couple of contracts and not much before that, but because they did say they are going to be making a superbowl run and you can bet the farm they will be betting the farm.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Lions Cap Space & Free Agency
The Lions have a lot of cap space tied up into their current (2012) roster. By my count the team has 37 players signed and they are using up $108,702,884 in salary cap space. Now that looks like an exact number but it's not, it is my calculated guess. The Lions do not divulge salary information so all calculations must be pieced together from various sources, sources that aren't always correct, and even with that there are times when educated guesses are still required. At this point in the off season if I'm within a million dollars I feel I'm doing fairly well. Updates to my cap chart can and often do happen weekly as new information presents itself.
The above salary cap number includes the $1 million escalation that Matthew Stafford earned in his base salary by finishing in the top 5 at QB but it does not include the $4.5 million NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonus that Calvin Johnson earned. That figure will be a cap adjustment for the Lions (meaning their available cap space will be reduced by that amount). All teams have the option of carrying over unused cap from 2011 and I expect the Lions to do so. All teams have the option of "borrowing" up to $1.5 million in cap from a future period simply by asking, I expect the Lions may take advantage of that as well. The actual base salary cap figure for each team (the unadjusted salary cap figure) has not yet been released, so there's another guess. Taking all my guesses into consideration I believe the Lions will have close to an adjusted salary cap figure of $124 million.
The sum total of these guess means the Lions have about $15.3 million in cap space available to re-sign their free agents or see them go elsewhere. They also need to have enough for their draft picks and they always go into the season with at least $2 million in space available.
So how are they going to do that? First, they will try to sign Calvin Johnson to a contract extension. If it's worked right, even though it's going to be the largest contract ever for a wide receiver, it could free up some cap space in 2012. CJ has a salary of $14 million in 2012 and by the Lions reducing that figure but paying a large signing bonus (that gets spread over the length of the new contract for cap purposes) it's possible to free up some cap space this year.
The Lions can also restructure some contracts to free up space. These five players have large salaries in 2012 and are all candidates for this move: Burleson, Raiola, Stafford, KVB and Suh. I'm not talking a pay cut, I'm talking about taking most of their salary for 2012 and paying it all at once as an advance, which then in turn would spread the cap hit out over the rest of their contract. For example; reduce Nate Burleson's salary down to $1 million from $4 million but pay him the $3 million as a signing bonus. The $3 million gets spread out over the remaining 3 years of his contract (a million dollars per year). The end result is he still gets $4 million in 2012, $3 million all at once the rest weekly during the season, but the cap hit goes from $4 million in 2012 to $2 million and adds $1 million in cap hits to 2013 and 2014.
Doing these restructures costs future caps as much as it saves in 2012, so a team doesn't want to do more then is necessary... but having the option gives the Lions room to work if need be. In fact, between the contract extension for CJ and contract re-structures for as many as 5 players, the Lions could free up well over $15 million, or double what they currently have available.
With that money (err.. cap space) the Lions need to re-sign (or find the replacements for):
Cliff Avril DE UFA
Jeff Backus T UFA
Bobby Carpenter LB UFA
Erik Coleman S UFA
Rashied Davis WR UFA
Leonard Davis T UFA
Isaiah Ekejiuba LB UFA
Andre Fluellen DT UFA
Ben Graham P UFA
Chris Harris S UFA
Jerome Harrison RB UFA
Shaun Hill QB UFA
Stefan Logan WR UFA
Brandon McDonald CB UFA
Maurice Morris RB UFA
Don Muhlbach C UFA
Kevin Smith RB UFA
Drew Stanton QB UFA
Maurice Stovall WR UFA
Stephen Tulloch LB UFA
Eric Wright CB UFA
Sammie Lee Hill DT RFA
Corey Hilliard T RFA
DeAndre Levy LB RFA
Ashlee Palmer LB RFA
It might be easier to see what work the Lions have to do if presented in a different format. I have a spreadsheet called "depth chart" that visually (by putting the above players in pale yellow) just how the team would be gutted if the Lions don't re-sign a large number of these players. The spreadsheet can be found at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html
I also have a spreadsheet with my salary cap computations on it on that same site (go to salary cap instead of depth chart in the menu system).
Next up, who should the Lions try to keep and who should they let go? After that, and something that also applies to the depth chart, is the 2012 draft. Stay tuned.
The above salary cap number includes the $1 million escalation that Matthew Stafford earned in his base salary by finishing in the top 5 at QB but it does not include the $4.5 million NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonus that Calvin Johnson earned. That figure will be a cap adjustment for the Lions (meaning their available cap space will be reduced by that amount). All teams have the option of carrying over unused cap from 2011 and I expect the Lions to do so. All teams have the option of "borrowing" up to $1.5 million in cap from a future period simply by asking, I expect the Lions may take advantage of that as well. The actual base salary cap figure for each team (the unadjusted salary cap figure) has not yet been released, so there's another guess. Taking all my guesses into consideration I believe the Lions will have close to an adjusted salary cap figure of $124 million.
The sum total of these guess means the Lions have about $15.3 million in cap space available to re-sign their free agents or see them go elsewhere. They also need to have enough for their draft picks and they always go into the season with at least $2 million in space available.
So how are they going to do that? First, they will try to sign Calvin Johnson to a contract extension. If it's worked right, even though it's going to be the largest contract ever for a wide receiver, it could free up some cap space in 2012. CJ has a salary of $14 million in 2012 and by the Lions reducing that figure but paying a large signing bonus (that gets spread over the length of the new contract for cap purposes) it's possible to free up some cap space this year.
The Lions can also restructure some contracts to free up space. These five players have large salaries in 2012 and are all candidates for this move: Burleson, Raiola, Stafford, KVB and Suh. I'm not talking a pay cut, I'm talking about taking most of their salary for 2012 and paying it all at once as an advance, which then in turn would spread the cap hit out over the rest of their contract. For example; reduce Nate Burleson's salary down to $1 million from $4 million but pay him the $3 million as a signing bonus. The $3 million gets spread out over the remaining 3 years of his contract (a million dollars per year). The end result is he still gets $4 million in 2012, $3 million all at once the rest weekly during the season, but the cap hit goes from $4 million in 2012 to $2 million and adds $1 million in cap hits to 2013 and 2014.
Doing these restructures costs future caps as much as it saves in 2012, so a team doesn't want to do more then is necessary... but having the option gives the Lions room to work if need be. In fact, between the contract extension for CJ and contract re-structures for as many as 5 players, the Lions could free up well over $15 million, or double what they currently have available.
With that money (err.. cap space) the Lions need to re-sign (or find the replacements for):
Cliff Avril DE UFA
Jeff Backus T UFA
Bobby Carpenter LB UFA
Erik Coleman S UFA
Rashied Davis WR UFA
Leonard Davis T UFA
Isaiah Ekejiuba LB UFA
Andre Fluellen DT UFA
Ben Graham P UFA
Chris Harris S UFA
Jerome Harrison RB UFA
Shaun Hill QB UFA
Stefan Logan WR UFA
Brandon McDonald CB UFA
Maurice Morris RB UFA
Don Muhlbach C UFA
Kevin Smith RB UFA
Drew Stanton QB UFA
Maurice Stovall WR UFA
Stephen Tulloch LB UFA
Eric Wright CB UFA
Sammie Lee Hill DT RFA
Corey Hilliard T RFA
DeAndre Levy LB RFA
Ashlee Palmer LB RFA
It might be easier to see what work the Lions have to do if presented in a different format. I have a spreadsheet called "depth chart" that visually (by putting the above players in pale yellow) just how the team would be gutted if the Lions don't re-sign a large number of these players. The spreadsheet can be found at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html
I also have a spreadsheet with my salary cap computations on it on that same site (go to salary cap instead of depth chart in the menu system).
Next up, who should the Lions try to keep and who should they let go? After that, and something that also applies to the depth chart, is the 2012 draft. Stay tuned.
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