Monday, May 14, 2012
Let the (2012 Camp) Battles Begin!!!
I have just recently finished updating my Detroit Lions Salary Cap and Estimated Depth Charts, both of which are available for your review ... links to which are on my website http://www.theNetRat.com, and in doing so I noted a number of interesting camp battles about to begin.
There are so many in fact that it is difficult to know where to start. Guess I'll start with the completely unknown. That is to say, the Lions have room on their roster for at least 1 more body. Whoever gets signed will be competing against someone on the roster for a job and a chance to make the final 53. In addition to that, at any given moment the Lions could sign someone else and cut a body to make room for him, creating even more competition. Needless to say, being the last guy (#90) on the roster is not a safe place to be! All the undrafted guys need to make sure they are not that 90th (or as the case may be right now, the 89th) guy or their NFL career could be over before the next set of OTA's if not sooner. The most expendable guy will always be competing against every player available in free agency, the rest of the unsigned undrafted ranks, and any player cut at any time by any other team. Like I said though, the Lions still have one spot available so unless they go ahead and sign two new names, the last guy on the roster (that is to say, the last guy on the non-existent depth chart) may get just a little more time to move up ahead of someone else.
Leaving off the mystery guy for now, what other hiccups are there? Well, Avril hasn't signed his franchise tag or a long term deal yet but his tag counts against the salary cap so I'm including him in my analysis. Riley Reiff hasn't signed his contract yet but he counts against the 90 maximum players a team can have in preseason so he's also being included. In fact, as the Lions first round pick this year he's guaranteed a roster spot already, it's just a matter of which roster spot. More on this in a little bit.
Now to switch gears and look at the least complicated position group. The Lions typically keep 3 quarterbacks on their 53 man roster. Obviously Matt Stafford isn't going anywhere, they re-signed veteran Shaun Hill to be his backup, and Drew Stanton who left for greener pastures (that's another story) was apparently replaced by Kellen Moore, an undrafted free agent. At this point, the Lions have no other guys who play quarterback under contract so unless something happens, these 3 players make the team and are in that order on the depth chart.
The next least complicated position group is the dedicated special teams players. 3 of the 5 will make the final roster and 2 of those 3 are practically a given. As the only long snapper on the team (that I know of) the newly re-signed Lions veteran Don Muhlbach makes the final cut. One kicker makes the team, between Jason Hanson and Derek Dimke, my money is on Jason Hanson... no matter what anyone says, as long as he can do the job he is the Kicker for the Lions. I didn't see any sign of age catching up to him and the only struggles came from having to switch place holders 3 times during the early part of the season. As for the place holder/punter, it's between Ryan Donahue who beat out Harris last year (only to get injured) and his replacement who finished the season for him, veteran Ben Graham. I prefer Ben Graham myself, I'm just not so sure the Lions do.
Since we have the quarterback situation settled let's finish up the offense.
Running back is complicated because of injury concerns with all the probable starters and the unfinished products of their backups. I think I'm looking at the RB situation a little differently then most though, I don't see it as 7 or 8 guys fighting for 3 or 4 (or even 5) spots. I see two burners in Jahvid Best and Stephfon Greene with Best making the team unless his concussions end his career. Stephfon Greene wasn't drafted and might survive the waiver wire after cuts to make the practice squad. I see two, shall we call them tanks?, in Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. If (and this is a mighty big if) Mikel Leshoure is completely healed up and can play at the level he was drafted for he will make the final team as the ying to Best/Greene's yang. If he isn't able to go, then Bell takes the ying. Then there's the 3rd RB, the utility guy who can do some of this, some of that, yet not quite a burner or a tank, but can catch the ball and run somewhat as well. Kevin Smith, Keiland Williams and Jerome Harrison will be fighting it out for that spot with Smith being my "most likely to make the team" pick. Could they keep more then 3 running backs? Sure, but then the guy is no longer competing against his own position group but a player from another position group as well (what I mean will become clearer further on).
Did I forget fullback James Bryant in my running back analysis? Nope, actually, I consider his primary competition to be Will Heller, Nathan Overbay, Alez Gottleib, and Austin Wells. The Tight Ends. Brandon Pettigrew makes the team and I just don't see any of these guys beating out Tony Schefler for the #2 spot. However, blocking TE, the 3rd string TE, could easily be a full back. So while Heller has the inside track of making the team, I would put James Bryant as his primary competition for the job, then stick in Overbay, Gottleib and Wells after that. One of these guys could easily be the 90th dude that no one wants to be as well (see previous discussion above on that topic). Overbay, Gottleib and Wells all need to prove very quickly why the brass needs to look at them more.
The Lions have 12 wide receivers under contract. They typically carry 5 into the season but could go to six if someone beats out a player from another position group. I'm going to assume 5 for now. Calvin Johnson has the new contract extension, the Madden curse target on his back, and a guaranteed roster spot. Nate Burleson is a favorite of the OC, a leader on the team, still very productive, and will make the final roster. Titus Young was drafted last year and shown tremendous talent when most rookies do not at wide receiver, so he'll make the team. Ryan Broyles was drafted by the Lions in round 2, was just paid a signing bonus of around $1.1 million and is going to make the team (and if he heals up, he may be the kick returner this year as well). That leaves WR#5. While Stefan Logan held this spot for 2 years running he hasn't shown much versatility in the run or passing game so it's very very possible someone else takes the spot from him this year. I'd say, at this point in time, the two most likely suspects are undrafted free agent Patrick Edwards (who can return punts too) and Nate Hughes (the Lions keep him around every year giving him chance after chance). That still leaves 5 guys fighting it out against Logan, Edwards and Hughes (and potential injured player who goes on IR and/or a possible 6th spot). In order of my most likely we got Lance Long, Marcus Harris, Terrence Toliver, Jared Karsteffer, and Troy Burell. Also note, to date Rashied Davis hasn't signed with a team and is available in free agency.
The last of the offensive roster belongs to the offensive line. Either 8 or 9 guys will make the team. The only three I guarantee will make the final roster is guard Rob Sims, center Dominic Raiola and this year's first round draft pick Riley Reiff. Where or if Reiff starts is what makes this position group so hard to guesstimate. If Reiff starts at Left Tackle it likely means that Jeff Backus is finally unable to start in which case he probably retires. If Backus is healthy and hasn't succumbed to age, then no one will be taking his job from him this year. I see it playing out that way so I'm putting Jeff Backus in as the left tackle barring further developments. Unless Rob Sims gets moved to right guard so that Reiff plays left guard I say that Sims makes the team as the starting left guard. If Sims starts at right guard then I think Peterman fails to make the team. If Reiff ends up the starting right tackle it could mean the end of Gosder Cherilus as a Lion, or Goz could move over to right guard challenging Peterman for the starting job and for a spot on the final roster. The likelihood of Reiff taking Petermans' job outright appears to me to be remote. If Reiff doesn't take a starting job away from someone, he will definitely take a backup job away from someone, and probably at left tackle as he learns from Jeff Backus. The next most likely player to make the final roster is Corey Hilliard, due to his experience and his versatility. It is likely either Jason Fox or Johnny Culbreath makes the final roster as depth at the tackle position if not both of them. That leaves 1, 2 or maybe 3 spots for Jacques McClendon, Dylan Gandy, Dan Gerberry, Quinn Barham, Patrick Boyle, Rodney Austin and JC Oram to fight for. This position group is far and away the most in flux on the offense and the training camp battle for the OLine jobs should prove to be most formidable. Who would've thought just one draft pick could cause this much turmoil.
On to the defense.
At defensive end Cliff Avril has been franchise tagged and the Lions will probably try to work out a long term contract with him sometime in July. He'll make the team one way or the other, I can't believe he wouldn't sign the tag and play the one year for $10.6 million at the very least. KVB bookmarks the DE position unless age kicks his butt this off season. Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson rotate in a lot and both will make the team. The Lions' 4th round draft pick Ronnell Lewis will also make the team and likely push Andre Fluellen off the roster. I don't see much hope for Ugo Chinasa, or Everette Brown or Slade Norris making the team unless someone retires or gets injured, but any of them might make the practice squad.
At defensive tackle the Lions likely keep 4 and they will be Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams, Nick Fairley, and Sammie Lee Hill. Like I said above, Fluellen probably lost his spot to Lewis. Michael Cosgrove and Eddie McClam are also practice squad candidates. I do believe Cory Williams is 32 this year, so it's possible someone younger can steal a roster spot but boy that rookie would have to be very good to do it (and that wouldn't be a bad thing for the team anyway so go for it guys!). There's always a possibility the Lions could keep 10 dlineman instead of 9 this year, but once again, the player would be competing against all the other position groups as well as his own.
The starting linebackers will likely remain the same, at least to start the preseason. DeAndre Levy, Stephen Tulloch and Justin Durant are the guys to beat to earn a starting job. It sounds as though Travis Lewis the Lions 7th round draft pick may end up a backup at MLB behind Tulloch. It's also likely that Tahir Whitehead the 5th round draft pick also makes the final roster. That leaves 1 or maybe 2 spots available for (vets) Ashlee Palmer, Doug Hogue, (and undrafted free agents) Carmen Messina and Ronnie Snead. Special Teams could determine who wins the day.
At Safety the Lions are entering the preseason a little thin unless one or more of the cornerbacks moves to safety. Presently the Lions have Louis Delmas and Amari Spievey starting with Erik Coleman and John Wendling backing up. The depth from there consists of two names; Alonzo Lawrence and Ricardo Silva. Other then Louis Delmas, I'd say that not only is the backup jobs but one starting job available for competition. The Lions may keep 4 or 5 safeties this year. The 5th safety would be competing against the potential 6th cornerback first and for the much coveted position group battle spot second.
With Eric Wright leaving in free agency, the only starting job that is guaranteed to be manned by someone new is at cornerback. Presently it appears as though Chris Houston and Aaron Berry are the starters. The Nickel and Dime positions are open for battle as is a potential 5th and 6th position group roster spot. Fighting for these jobs are Jacob Lacey late of the Colts, 3rd round draft pick Dwight Bentley, 5th round draft pick Chris Greenwood, 6th round draft pick Jonte Green, vets Alphonso Smith, Don Carey, and undrafted player Ross Weaver. If Jonte Green is too "green" as a rookie he would make a good practice squad candidate. The other two draft picks likely make the roster. That leaves only 1 or 2 spots for the rest of the group.
The above makes for 22 offense, 24 defense, 3 special teams, and 4 spots that could be any position fighting against each other and not just their position group for a roster spot. If none of the final roster winners can return kicks and/or punts then Logan makes the team. I am fairly confident that the final roster will consist of at least 3 QB's, 5 WR's, 3 RB's, 3 TE's, 8 OL (total of 22) along with 9 DL, 6 LB's, 9 DB's (total of 24). Last year the roster consisted of 24 O and 26 D for most of the year with brief periods of 23 O and 27 D. My best guess is two spots will go to offense with 1 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE/FB, and 1 OL fighting for those 2 spots. On defense the two spots could be Dline, LB, CB or Safety (obviously)... but if a 3rd guy is better then all the Offensive options they will keep a heavier defensive lopsided roster. Special teams will help determine those last 4 spots.
Of course, even when the Lions cut it back to 53 the bottom of the roster is now susceptible to being replaced by any player cut by any other team. The competition doesn't end on the final cut down day.
As I stated before in my blog, going to my website and selecting depth chart from the menu then clicking on the link to the spreadsheet for my estimated depth chart will bring up the often updated page (assuming you can open excel spreadsheets) at which point you can save a copy to your own computer for your own editing. It is much easier to see the scenarios available in the layout I use (once you get used to it). Please though, do not post your version online without permission from yours truly.
Good luck to the roughly 37 current Lions who are in the 2012 camp battle with the 53 who will make the team, whoever you may be.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Lions 2012 Draft, Day 3, Rounds 4 - 7
With the 117th pick in the NFL 2012 Draft the Detroit Lions... trade their pick to San Francisco for pick #125 (moving down 8 spots in round 4) and acquiring pick #196 (a 6th rounder). With pick number 125 the Detroit Lions select OLB/DE Ronnell Lewis from Oklahoma.
At 6'1.6" tall and weighing in at 253 pounds Ronnell has some work ahead of him. However, with a 4.65 40 time and a great motor he has the tools to become a good NFL DE in the wide 9 defense. Had he excelled at school and applied himself to developing his talents a little more he may have been drafted in round 2. With good coaching and a good locker room he should blossom mentally and physically in a couple of years... which is about how long it takes a DE to learn the NFL position and start to excel at it.
Links:
#10 on the list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=15
http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/02/de-ronnell-lewis-scouting-report/
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/ronnell-lewis-56/
http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/2012/olb/ronnell-lewis/
You're going to like this one on "the Hammer"
I should note here that I had Ronnell Lewis ranked 61 on my top 100 board, higher then their 2nd or their 3rd round picks.
The Detroit Lions trade their 2013 4th round pick and their 2012 pick #219 in the 7th round to the Minnesota Vikings and acquire pick #138 in round 5 and pick #223 in the 7th round (moving down 4 spots in round 7). With the 138th pick the Lions select OLB Tahir Whitehead from Temple.
Links:
#19 on the list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=15
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/tahir-whitehead-2/
The Detroit Lions trade up to pick #148 in round 5, giving the Oakland Raiders pick #158 (moving up 10 spots) and giving away pick #230 in round 7. With the 148th pick the Lions select CB Chris Greenwood from Albion
Links:
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/chris-greenwood-2/
The Detroit Lions use their 196th pick in round 6 (acquired from San Francisco) on DB Jonte Green of New Mexico State University.
Links:
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/jonte-green-1/ http://www.nmstatesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=1900&ATCLID=3646556 Okay, so, I'm not finding much on Jonte. Not sure if this was a flyer or a good investment of a draft pick. For whatever reason the Lions had him ranked and didn't want to risk losing him in the 7th round, so we'll have to go with that for now.
The Detroit Lions use their 223rd pick acquired from the Minnesota Vikings to select LB Travis Lewis from Oklahoma (this is the 3rd player from Oklahoma drafted by the Lions this year).
Travis was expected to be drafted as high as the 4th round. He's just over 6'1" tall, weights in at 246 pounds and projects to be a weakside or middle linebacker in the 4-3 defense. He played his entire senior year with a broken toe wearing a special shoe to be able to do it. Holds the tackling record at Oklahoma.
Links:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=14
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2010/06/travis-lewis-scouting-report.html
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/travis-lewis-28/
I should note here that I had Travis Lewis ranked 96 on my top 100 board, higher then the Lions 5th and 6th round picks and higher then their 2nd round pick.
The Lions took players from small schools and some others with questionable off field personalities on day 3, all in an effort to find a diamond or two, or so it would appear to me. Based on how teams, and I mean all of them not just the Lions, reached for players throughout the draft it would seem that many front offices weren't entirely impressed with their options this year. Gunny is going to have his work cut for him but if half or more of the defensive draft picks turn out this could end up being one of the best drafts the Lions have had in years if not decades. However, if most or if all of these players selected to play defense fail to make the grade, this could easily end up as one of the worst. The talent is there... now it's up to the players and the coaches to form the clay into NFL football players.
At 6'1.6" tall and weighing in at 253 pounds Ronnell has some work ahead of him. However, with a 4.65 40 time and a great motor he has the tools to become a good NFL DE in the wide 9 defense. Had he excelled at school and applied himself to developing his talents a little more he may have been drafted in round 2. With good coaching and a good locker room he should blossom mentally and physically in a couple of years... which is about how long it takes a DE to learn the NFL position and start to excel at it.
Links:
#10 on the list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=15
http://www.buffalobillsdraft.com/2012/02/de-ronnell-lewis-scouting-report/
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/ronnell-lewis-56/
http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/2012/olb/ronnell-lewis/
You're going to like this one on "the Hammer"
I should note here that I had Ronnell Lewis ranked 61 on my top 100 board, higher then their 2nd or their 3rd round picks.
The Detroit Lions trade their 2013 4th round pick and their 2012 pick #219 in the 7th round to the Minnesota Vikings and acquire pick #138 in round 5 and pick #223 in the 7th round (moving down 4 spots in round 7). With the 138th pick the Lions select OLB Tahir Whitehead from Temple.
Links:
#19 on the list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=15
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/tahir-whitehead-2/
The Detroit Lions trade up to pick #148 in round 5, giving the Oakland Raiders pick #158 (moving up 10 spots) and giving away pick #230 in round 7. With the 148th pick the Lions select CB Chris Greenwood from Albion
Links:
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/chris-greenwood-2/
The Detroit Lions use their 196th pick in round 6 (acquired from San Francisco) on DB Jonte Green of New Mexico State University.
Links:
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/jonte-green-1/ http://www.nmstatesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=1900&ATCLID=3646556 Okay, so, I'm not finding much on Jonte. Not sure if this was a flyer or a good investment of a draft pick. For whatever reason the Lions had him ranked and didn't want to risk losing him in the 7th round, so we'll have to go with that for now.
The Detroit Lions use their 223rd pick acquired from the Minnesota Vikings to select LB Travis Lewis from Oklahoma (this is the 3rd player from Oklahoma drafted by the Lions this year).
Travis was expected to be drafted as high as the 4th round. He's just over 6'1" tall, weights in at 246 pounds and projects to be a weakside or middle linebacker in the 4-3 defense. He played his entire senior year with a broken toe wearing a special shoe to be able to do it. Holds the tackling record at Oklahoma.
Links:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=14
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2010/06/travis-lewis-scouting-report.html
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/travis-lewis-28/
I should note here that I had Travis Lewis ranked 96 on my top 100 board, higher then the Lions 5th and 6th round picks and higher then their 2nd round pick.
The Lions took players from small schools and some others with questionable off field personalities on day 3, all in an effort to find a diamond or two, or so it would appear to me. Based on how teams, and I mean all of them not just the Lions, reached for players throughout the draft it would seem that many front offices weren't entirely impressed with their options this year. Gunny is going to have his work cut for him but if half or more of the defensive draft picks turn out this could end up being one of the best drafts the Lions have had in years if not decades. However, if most or if all of these players selected to play defense fail to make the grade, this could easily end up as one of the worst. The talent is there... now it's up to the players and the coaches to form the clay into NFL football players.
Lions 2012 Draft, Day 2, Rounds 2 and 3
With the 54th pick of the 2012 NFL Draft the Lions select Oklahoma Wide Receiver Ryan Broyles.
And the crowd goes wild. Not because everyone wanted Ryan Broyles. Not because everyone wanted a wide receiver. But because everyone expected something else, anything else or should I say, anyone else... no, that's not it, any defensive position. Some were bracing themselves just in case the Lions went running back, or better yet, guard or center but most expected some kind of defensive help. Instead the Lions stayed true to their board and drafted the injured Oklahoma wide receiver.
I had him ranked 107th. Probable 4th rounder. But, truth to tell, almost all the teams drafted waaayyyyy outside the rankings this year. At one point early in the 3rd round I watched as 5 guys, in a row, were drafted, that I had ranked as undrafted free agents or at most, 7th rounders (none of those 5 were to the Lions). One scout had Broyles ranked at 48, that was the highest I saw him ranked. The Lions had him ranked as the best player at that point in the draft. Probably due to his versatility (wideout and returner). One profile compares him to Wes Welker in as far as the type of player he is. If you think of him as just the 4th Wide Receiver on the team replacing Rashied Davis then he's not exactly worthy of a 2nd round pick. If you think of him as the eventual replacement for Burleson (in a few years) he still wouldn't be worthy of a 2nd round pick this year. If you think of him as a punt returner and possibly replacing Logan this year or next, he still isn't worthy of a 2nd round pick. If you think of him as all of these added together, he just might be worthy of a 2nd round pick. Throw in just one injury to any of the other wide receivers and he becomes very critical for 2012 (and for those who believe in the Madden curse, this year depth is going to be needed big time!).
Ryan Broyles is one of the top collegiate receivers of all time production-wise. He did for Oklahoma what Calvin Johnson did for the Lions last year, holding the record for catches, yards and touchdowns. He's apparently a very good route runner and good at YACs (Yards after the catch). Not afraid to and pretty efficient at playing slot. Tore his left ACL November 11, 2011 and is just now starting to get back into practicing. NFL conditioning and rehab will probably bring him back the rest of the way before camp starts. Had he not injured his ACL his draft stock would've been upper 2nd round easily. So, in one reality, he was not a reach, he was not a bad choice, he just wasn't the expected choice... especially considering who was still on the board (other people's boards, not the Lions board) at that point in time. Many of those supposedly better players went in round 3 not 2 and some still aren't drafted as I type this.
So, some links:
#12 WR: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=3
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/ryan-broyles-85/
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2010/08/ryan-broyles-scouting-report.html
6th best WR here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ar0S-ku6SFH7dEtXWndkcVg2YzNmS29kR1Uxc29XRlE&gid=0
Confession time. I didn't see this pick coming. Wasn't happy at the time of the pick either. But, like most of the Lions player moves, it's growing on me. I think I would've still drafted Vinny Curry but they didn't ask me so we'll see how this works out.
With the 85th pick of the 2012 NFL Draft the Lions select Louisiana-Lafayette Cornerback Dwight (Bill) Bentley.
Immediately after this selection I was thinking I had never heard of this guy. Who is Dwight Bentley? Part of that was that he goes by the name of Bill... Bill Bentley. Part of it was I wasn't paying attention to my board because once again I was expecting a different pick by the Lions. I had 3 cornerbacks on my board that were on the list of Lions contacts and I was expecting one of those to be picked. One was ranked 51, one was at 70, and the other was at 99. I never noticed the guy sitting at 93... one Dwight aka Bill Bentley.
The Huddle Report had him at 67, Sideline Scouting at 78 and NFP at 117 just to name a few. I have no doubt he was also the top dude on the Lions draft board at this point in the draft, though I'm not sure why he was ahead of players such as RB Jamal Miller and the like, but all the other teams are passing on these guys too, so there must be a valid reason even if I'm unaware of what that reason is.
Dwight's contact with the team was pretty much his Senior Bowl film. He showed skills that were mostly never used in college and impressed the Lions greatly. His 4.43 speed is impressive. His ballhawking skills are fairly well developed though he does need to control his angle of attack a bit better. He needs coaching but the potential and the speed is there. This is probably a better pick then it seemed at first... no, I'm quite sure this is a better pick then it seemed... now it's up to Gunther and company to get him NFL ready... the guy has a very high ceiling.
Now for some links:
11th CB: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=17
http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/2012/cb/dwight-bentley/
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/dwight-bentley-5/
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2012/03/dwight-bentley-scouting-report.html
One more confession. Wasn't expecting this pick but not upset with it either, especially after reading the above links (plus others I can not post a link to). Since I have enough players on my board remaining to fill the entire 4th round with picks without taking a player ranked 4th round (in other words, I have almost 32 second and third rounders on my board left to be drafted) this draft is turning out to be one of the most confusing ones ever. Lions still need or might end up with a defensive end, running back, clipboard holder (ie: 3rd QB), and maybe a linebacker... along with some more OLine help. Look for guys who are versatile, can play special teams or multiple positions, because so far, ALL the Lions picks are one or the other!
And the crowd goes wild. Not because everyone wanted Ryan Broyles. Not because everyone wanted a wide receiver. But because everyone expected something else, anything else or should I say, anyone else... no, that's not it, any defensive position. Some were bracing themselves just in case the Lions went running back, or better yet, guard or center but most expected some kind of defensive help. Instead the Lions stayed true to their board and drafted the injured Oklahoma wide receiver.
I had him ranked 107th. Probable 4th rounder. But, truth to tell, almost all the teams drafted waaayyyyy outside the rankings this year. At one point early in the 3rd round I watched as 5 guys, in a row, were drafted, that I had ranked as undrafted free agents or at most, 7th rounders (none of those 5 were to the Lions). One scout had Broyles ranked at 48, that was the highest I saw him ranked. The Lions had him ranked as the best player at that point in the draft. Probably due to his versatility (wideout and returner). One profile compares him to Wes Welker in as far as the type of player he is. If you think of him as just the 4th Wide Receiver on the team replacing Rashied Davis then he's not exactly worthy of a 2nd round pick. If you think of him as the eventual replacement for Burleson (in a few years) he still wouldn't be worthy of a 2nd round pick this year. If you think of him as a punt returner and possibly replacing Logan this year or next, he still isn't worthy of a 2nd round pick. If you think of him as all of these added together, he just might be worthy of a 2nd round pick. Throw in just one injury to any of the other wide receivers and he becomes very critical for 2012 (and for those who believe in the Madden curse, this year depth is going to be needed big time!).
Ryan Broyles is one of the top collegiate receivers of all time production-wise. He did for Oklahoma what Calvin Johnson did for the Lions last year, holding the record for catches, yards and touchdowns. He's apparently a very good route runner and good at YACs (Yards after the catch). Not afraid to and pretty efficient at playing slot. Tore his left ACL November 11, 2011 and is just now starting to get back into practicing. NFL conditioning and rehab will probably bring him back the rest of the way before camp starts. Had he not injured his ACL his draft stock would've been upper 2nd round easily. So, in one reality, he was not a reach, he was not a bad choice, he just wasn't the expected choice... especially considering who was still on the board (other people's boards, not the Lions board) at that point in time. Many of those supposedly better players went in round 3 not 2 and some still aren't drafted as I type this.
So, some links:
#12 WR: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=3
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/ryan-broyles-85/
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2010/08/ryan-broyles-scouting-report.html
6th best WR here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ar0S-ku6SFH7dEtXWndkcVg2YzNmS29kR1Uxc29XRlE&gid=0
Confession time. I didn't see this pick coming. Wasn't happy at the time of the pick either. But, like most of the Lions player moves, it's growing on me. I think I would've still drafted Vinny Curry but they didn't ask me so we'll see how this works out.
With the 85th pick of the 2012 NFL Draft the Lions select Louisiana-Lafayette Cornerback Dwight (Bill) Bentley.
Immediately after this selection I was thinking I had never heard of this guy. Who is Dwight Bentley? Part of that was that he goes by the name of Bill... Bill Bentley. Part of it was I wasn't paying attention to my board because once again I was expecting a different pick by the Lions. I had 3 cornerbacks on my board that were on the list of Lions contacts and I was expecting one of those to be picked. One was ranked 51, one was at 70, and the other was at 99. I never noticed the guy sitting at 93... one Dwight aka Bill Bentley.
The Huddle Report had him at 67, Sideline Scouting at 78 and NFP at 117 just to name a few. I have no doubt he was also the top dude on the Lions draft board at this point in the draft, though I'm not sure why he was ahead of players such as RB Jamal Miller and the like, but all the other teams are passing on these guys too, so there must be a valid reason even if I'm unaware of what that reason is.
Dwight's contact with the team was pretty much his Senior Bowl film. He showed skills that were mostly never used in college and impressed the Lions greatly. His 4.43 speed is impressive. His ballhawking skills are fairly well developed though he does need to control his angle of attack a bit better. He needs coaching but the potential and the speed is there. This is probably a better pick then it seemed at first... no, I'm quite sure this is a better pick then it seemed... now it's up to Gunther and company to get him NFL ready... the guy has a very high ceiling.
Now for some links:
11th CB: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AstbiM26zqkmdEV5OWxkNDJEc2Rsa0RTcHdheXlBb2c&gid=17
http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/2012/cb/dwight-bentley/
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/dwight-bentley-5/
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2012/03/dwight-bentley-scouting-report.html
One more confession. Wasn't expecting this pick but not upset with it either, especially after reading the above links (plus others I can not post a link to). Since I have enough players on my board remaining to fill the entire 4th round with picks without taking a player ranked 4th round (in other words, I have almost 32 second and third rounders on my board left to be drafted) this draft is turning out to be one of the most confusing ones ever. Lions still need or might end up with a defensive end, running back, clipboard holder (ie: 3rd QB), and maybe a linebacker... along with some more OLine help. Look for guys who are versatile, can play special teams or multiple positions, because so far, ALL the Lions picks are one or the other!
Friday, April 27, 2012
Lions 2012 Draft, Round 1
With the 23rd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft the Detroit Lions select Iowa Offensive Tackle Riley Reiff.
I'd have to really dig, but I think most pundits have been assuming the Lions would take a left tackle in the draft in the first round for almost a decade, most definitely for the past few years, and the Lions never did. When the Lions re-signed Jeff Backus this year to a 2 year contract many thought they might go in a different direction this year... so surprise! They take who they say they had ranked as the 2nd best tackle in the draft (and I believe them). Neither the Lions nor I expected Reiff to be there at 23 and drafting an offensive tackle isn't the sexy pick that a cornerback, defensive end, or even a running back would've been... but adding talent is what the draft is all about and the Lions now have added talent to the offensive line corp.
But what kind of talent is he? Unless you watched Iowa play for the past few years or live in South Dakota and visited him at his farm you probably don't know any more then I did and thus you get your information from the internet and television. As I have found out, that's all well and good, but the various sources aren't exactly saying the same things. Heck, one source posted the measurables from his pro day and the combine and the measurements of the dudes hands and arms, height and weight are all different. Now I can understand a persons weight changing over a couple of weeks time, but I thought only OJ Simpson could change his hand size at will (sorry, had to throw that in there for some reason). If the measurables aren't even the same what do you suppose the rest of the immeasurables are like? Yeah, that's about it too... way different depending on who you read or listen to. One site will say he has long arms, the next will say short arms, in reality... they are at or just slightly below average (say within 3/4"). One site says he's been well coached, another says he may not take to coaching very well. Some sites were obvious that they maybe watched one or two games and wrote a player profile, while others watched multiple games and were a bit more thorough. Near as I can tell from the mess I went through, Riley Reiff is a tenacious, hard working, versatile offensive lineman who could use some NFL coaching but is also ready to start if need be. He is no stranger to the film room. He is no stranger to the weight room. He's also not afraid to play any position on the line if he's asked to. He also apparently doesn't like to be beat on a play, not at all. In other words, he is very talented if a bit raw and has an attitude to match.
When you think about it, what more could an offensive line coach ask for? Here is some highlights of his play:
And now, some links to some of the non-pay profiles I've read. This isn't all by any means, but I can't post the pdf's I've paid for or the material on the pay sites I subscribe to, perhaps you have others you have found. I wouldn't take any as gospel though, read them all and try to formulate your own thoughts from it... I think you'll find that the Lions have some quality material to work with.
Josh Norris scouting report can be read here (2nd best OT):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?....dheXlBb2c&gid=7
Now this one, which is the complete opposite of most regarding arm length and strength and such... no two sites are describing him the same... and after I read it I noticed the date posted, prior to combine by a lot:
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2011/12/riley-reiff-scouting-report.html
Then there's PFW's which may be a little more accurate:
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/riley-reiff-77/
Another scouting report:
http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/2012/ot/riley-reiff/
NFP's:
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/coll....ml&player=37712
Other aspects of the pick which isn't helping fans get enthusiastic for the Lions choice is; where will he play? How does it help the team? Where is the upgrade or who is he replacing?
The answer is... they don't know yet. Oh, I'm sure they have an idea, and if it works out that way great, but until the OTA's and camps are over, they can't possibly know for sure if he'll be doing plan A, or plan B, or plan C, etc.
Riley Reiff will be tried out at both tackle positions, both guard positions, maybe even center... but I'm pretty sure the plan is to play him at tackle if he's able to handle the duties. Now, will he be pushing (or replacing) Gosder Cherilus at right tackle or just learning the left tackle position to be Jeff Backus' eventual replacement is uncertain. I assume, if he's talented enough, he could supplant Goz at RT either permanently or temporarily until Backus retires. Being that Reiff is versatile and willing to play any position he has a lot to learn, then it will be up to him to earn his roster spot. Right or Left, Tackle or Guard, Now or "Down the Road".
He has a ton of drive... sitting on the bench isn't going to be his idea of fun... so the current starters best go all out as Reiff is going to be in their rear view mirror and he'll definitely be closer then he appears.
We fans also get to do something we're not comfortable with... watching our team develop an offensive lineman. It's not sexy, it's not thrilling, but it's a very necessary evil.
I'd have to really dig, but I think most pundits have been assuming the Lions would take a left tackle in the draft in the first round for almost a decade, most definitely for the past few years, and the Lions never did. When the Lions re-signed Jeff Backus this year to a 2 year contract many thought they might go in a different direction this year... so surprise! They take who they say they had ranked as the 2nd best tackle in the draft (and I believe them). Neither the Lions nor I expected Reiff to be there at 23 and drafting an offensive tackle isn't the sexy pick that a cornerback, defensive end, or even a running back would've been... but adding talent is what the draft is all about and the Lions now have added talent to the offensive line corp.
But what kind of talent is he? Unless you watched Iowa play for the past few years or live in South Dakota and visited him at his farm you probably don't know any more then I did and thus you get your information from the internet and television. As I have found out, that's all well and good, but the various sources aren't exactly saying the same things. Heck, one source posted the measurables from his pro day and the combine and the measurements of the dudes hands and arms, height and weight are all different. Now I can understand a persons weight changing over a couple of weeks time, but I thought only OJ Simpson could change his hand size at will (sorry, had to throw that in there for some reason). If the measurables aren't even the same what do you suppose the rest of the immeasurables are like? Yeah, that's about it too... way different depending on who you read or listen to. One site will say he has long arms, the next will say short arms, in reality... they are at or just slightly below average (say within 3/4"). One site says he's been well coached, another says he may not take to coaching very well. Some sites were obvious that they maybe watched one or two games and wrote a player profile, while others watched multiple games and were a bit more thorough. Near as I can tell from the mess I went through, Riley Reiff is a tenacious, hard working, versatile offensive lineman who could use some NFL coaching but is also ready to start if need be. He is no stranger to the film room. He is no stranger to the weight room. He's also not afraid to play any position on the line if he's asked to. He also apparently doesn't like to be beat on a play, not at all. In other words, he is very talented if a bit raw and has an attitude to match.
When you think about it, what more could an offensive line coach ask for? Here is some highlights of his play:
And now, some links to some of the non-pay profiles I've read. This isn't all by any means, but I can't post the pdf's I've paid for or the material on the pay sites I subscribe to, perhaps you have others you have found. I wouldn't take any as gospel though, read them all and try to formulate your own thoughts from it... I think you'll find that the Lions have some quality material to work with.
Josh Norris scouting report can be read here (2nd best OT):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?....dheXlBb2c&gid=7
Now this one, which is the complete opposite of most regarding arm length and strength and such... no two sites are describing him the same... and after I read it I noticed the date posted, prior to combine by a lot:
http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2011/12/riley-reiff-scouting-report.html
Then there's PFW's which may be a little more accurate:
http://cache.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/riley-reiff-77/
Another scouting report:
http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/2012/ot/riley-reiff/
NFP's:
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/coll....ml&player=37712
Other aspects of the pick which isn't helping fans get enthusiastic for the Lions choice is; where will he play? How does it help the team? Where is the upgrade or who is he replacing?
The answer is... they don't know yet. Oh, I'm sure they have an idea, and if it works out that way great, but until the OTA's and camps are over, they can't possibly know for sure if he'll be doing plan A, or plan B, or plan C, etc.
Riley Reiff will be tried out at both tackle positions, both guard positions, maybe even center... but I'm pretty sure the plan is to play him at tackle if he's able to handle the duties. Now, will he be pushing (or replacing) Gosder Cherilus at right tackle or just learning the left tackle position to be Jeff Backus' eventual replacement is uncertain. I assume, if he's talented enough, he could supplant Goz at RT either permanently or temporarily until Backus retires. Being that Reiff is versatile and willing to play any position he has a lot to learn, then it will be up to him to earn his roster spot. Right or Left, Tackle or Guard, Now or "Down the Road".
He has a ton of drive... sitting on the bench isn't going to be his idea of fun... so the current starters best go all out as Reiff is going to be in their rear view mirror and he'll definitely be closer then he appears.
We fans also get to do something we're not comfortable with... watching our team develop an offensive lineman. It's not sexy, it's not thrilling, but it's a very necessary evil.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Lions Draft Board
The Pro days are over, player visits are done, teams are now preparing in house for the draft which is less then a week away. The Lions are compiling their notes and preparing to mock draft scenarios out to determine a game plan that will probably be thrown out within an hour after the Draft starts.
No one knows who the Lions will draft or who will be available when they pick. Will they target a player and trade up or will they trade down... the sheer range of options is, well, intriguing (not quite overwhelming, ha!).
Too bad there isn't a way to trim the list of options down a bit. Well, it just so happens there might be a way to do that.
For the past couple of years I've been working out various methods to rank players just to see if I can get closer to possibly how the Lions rank their players. At the same time, someone from my forum http://badnetrat.proboards.com named LionHawk has been creating a contact list each year. Last year, every single player drafted by the Lions was on that contact list. He can explain how he comes up with the contact list better then I, but it accounts for pro-days, Combine, Allen Park visits, and Senior bowl. It is roughly 100 names long.
Sometimes a contact is made to verify health issues. Sometimes to ask about another player. Sometimes the team sends a DB coach to actually watch WRs. There is almost a science to it, determining who is a potential Lions draft pick and who is not. Plus, you never can tell if you have all the information or not. But since that's all I have to work with, and since it was 100% accurate for the 2011 draft, I'm ready to go with it.
What can this contact list tell us this year? A lot of things really. In no particular order we got...
The only Long Snapper (1) and Tight End (1) on the list are expected to be UDFAs.
Just about every Running Back expected to be drafted in the top 3 rounds are on the list (only exception appears to be Bernard Pierce from Temple, if he's considered a 3rd rounder).
Just 2 Safeties that will get drafted are on the list, with 4 more UDFAs.
All 7 of the LBs on the list are expected to be drafted.
There are as many DEs on the list as CBs, WRs, OTs, and RBs. Many of each position in the first 3 rounds. However, while DEs, CBs, OTs and RBs have 7 each in the top 100 only 3 WRs made the list leaving 11 WRs for rounds 4 through Undrafted.
QB does not appear on the list, however, I suspect they may have done that on purpose so no team will know who their hopeful project QB is... but that's just my guess.
There are 16 on the list who could go in round 1, 13 from round 2 and 13 from round 3. That's only 8 shy of half the entire list. 30 are not expected to get drafted and will become UDFAs (undrafted free agents). That leaves less then 30 names on the list for rounds 4 through 7.
6 of the possible 16 first rounders on the list are in my top 15 and thus shouldn't be there when the Lions pick at 23... if the Lions stay put at pick 23.
Of the 10 first rounders not in the top 15 you have (1) Safety, (2) Cornerbacks, (1) Defensive End, (1) Center, (1) Guard (1) Guard/Tackle, (1) Tackle, and (2) Running Backs. Or if you prefer; (3) DBs, (1) DE, (4) OLine, and (2) RBs. Most say the (2) RBs will fall into round 2 or at least the very bottom of round 1 (trade down?).
That's enough of my interpretation of Lionshawk's list, you can visit the forum to discuss it further if you wish. However, that's not going to stop me from using it and my top 100 ranking to give up 5 names in each of the first 3 rounds that I envision the Lions drafting if they are still there (and don't trade out of their spots).
1st Round
Mark Barron SS Alabama
Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Nick Perry DE USC
2nd Round
Amini Silatolu OG Midwestern State (Texas)
Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Zach Brown OLB North Carolina
Brandon Boykin CB-KR Georgia
Kelechi Osemele OT-OG Iowa State
3rd Round
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
Marvin Jones WR California
Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois
Ben Jones C Georgia
As an FYI, I'm all for any of these players being drafted, plus some names not listed here... but I got to say, a draft of...
Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
Devon Wylie WR Fresno State (round 4)
...would pretty much make my day.
No one knows who the Lions will draft or who will be available when they pick. Will they target a player and trade up or will they trade down... the sheer range of options is, well, intriguing (not quite overwhelming, ha!).
Too bad there isn't a way to trim the list of options down a bit. Well, it just so happens there might be a way to do that.
For the past couple of years I've been working out various methods to rank players just to see if I can get closer to possibly how the Lions rank their players. At the same time, someone from my forum http://badnetrat.proboards.com named LionHawk has been creating a contact list each year. Last year, every single player drafted by the Lions was on that contact list. He can explain how he comes up with the contact list better then I, but it accounts for pro-days, Combine, Allen Park visits, and Senior bowl. It is roughly 100 names long.
Sometimes a contact is made to verify health issues. Sometimes to ask about another player. Sometimes the team sends a DB coach to actually watch WRs. There is almost a science to it, determining who is a potential Lions draft pick and who is not. Plus, you never can tell if you have all the information or not. But since that's all I have to work with, and since it was 100% accurate for the 2011 draft, I'm ready to go with it.
What can this contact list tell us this year? A lot of things really. In no particular order we got...
The only Long Snapper (1) and Tight End (1) on the list are expected to be UDFAs.
Just about every Running Back expected to be drafted in the top 3 rounds are on the list (only exception appears to be Bernard Pierce from Temple, if he's considered a 3rd rounder).
Just 2 Safeties that will get drafted are on the list, with 4 more UDFAs.
All 7 of the LBs on the list are expected to be drafted.
There are as many DEs on the list as CBs, WRs, OTs, and RBs. Many of each position in the first 3 rounds. However, while DEs, CBs, OTs and RBs have 7 each in the top 100 only 3 WRs made the list leaving 11 WRs for rounds 4 through Undrafted.
QB does not appear on the list, however, I suspect they may have done that on purpose so no team will know who their hopeful project QB is... but that's just my guess.
There are 16 on the list who could go in round 1, 13 from round 2 and 13 from round 3. That's only 8 shy of half the entire list. 30 are not expected to get drafted and will become UDFAs (undrafted free agents). That leaves less then 30 names on the list for rounds 4 through 7.
6 of the possible 16 first rounders on the list are in my top 15 and thus shouldn't be there when the Lions pick at 23... if the Lions stay put at pick 23.
Of the 10 first rounders not in the top 15 you have (1) Safety, (2) Cornerbacks, (1) Defensive End, (1) Center, (1) Guard (1) Guard/Tackle, (1) Tackle, and (2) Running Backs. Or if you prefer; (3) DBs, (1) DE, (4) OLine, and (2) RBs. Most say the (2) RBs will fall into round 2 or at least the very bottom of round 1 (trade down?).
That's enough of my interpretation of Lionshawk's list, you can visit the forum to discuss it further if you wish. However, that's not going to stop me from using it and my top 100 ranking to give up 5 names in each of the first 3 rounds that I envision the Lions drafting if they are still there (and don't trade out of their spots).
1st Round
Mark Barron SS Alabama
Stephon Gilmore CB South Carolina
Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Riley Reiff OT Iowa
Nick Perry DE USC
2nd Round
Amini Silatolu OG Midwestern State (Texas)
Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Zach Brown OLB North Carolina
Brandon Boykin CB-KR Georgia
Kelechi Osemele OT-OG Iowa State
3rd Round
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
Marvin Jones WR California
Zebrie Sanders OT Florida State
A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois
Ben Jones C Georgia
As an FYI, I'm all for any of these players being drafted, plus some names not listed here... but I got to say, a draft of...
Janoris Jenkins CB North Alabama
Vinny Curry DE Marshall
Isaiah Pead RB Cincinnati
Devon Wylie WR Fresno State (round 4)
...would pretty much make my day.
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
The Detroit Lions' Draft Plan
Most draftnics and Lions fans continue to mock draft for the Lions based on need, or based on depth of the draft, or based on value for a pick, or any of a number of other incorrect methods that won't get them close. Others will simply say BPA (Best Player Available) and then try to wedge someone onto the roster still based on need but insisting that "such and such player" IS the best player available for the Lions to pick. Still others will say they (the Lions) can get a -insert position here- later in the draft and won't draft this or that player at this or that draft spot. And finally, there's the group that says the Lions won't draft this or that player because they don't need a player at that position or that particular player because of his history.
Somewhere in that mix there are a few who realize that the Lions won't draft certain players because those specific players don't fit what they do or if they do fit what they do, there is no roster spot for the player. Now even though that small group is closer to correct then the rest, they are still off on one thing, if a high enough ranked player drops to the Lions and they can't get decent value to trade out of their spot they will take said player. Should you have read all my blog posts you would probably figure I fit into this last group (and you would be right) and you would also know I got caught being wrong when the Lions DID in fact draft a defensive tackle last year despite my insistence they would not.
Hold up, say the BPA crowd, taking Fairley was what they should've done. But BPA means they won't package picks and trade up to target LeShoure, or Jahvid Best the year before. The Lions did not wait until it was their turn and then take the BPA, they targeted a specific player and went after him. How does that fit in with BPA?
Just what is the Lions draft plan?
In order to figure that out, you need to change the way you think about the draft.
The Lions do not see the draft as a way to fill a need, the Lions see it as a way to add talent to the roster... the entire roster.
Unlike free agency the salary cap isn't a part of the equation and so the Lions are free to add whatever talent they can acquire. They want the best they can possibly get whenever they draft a player.
You also have to drop the notion that the Lions aren't set at a position. That they have holes in the roster. As far as the front office is concerned, the Lions can and would field a team based on their current roster. That doesn't mean the current roster are guaranteed jobs, in fact, they are not (well, most of the players are not anyway). Some contracts guarantee certain players will in fact make the final roster but the majority of the team have no such guarantee. So while they would field a team of 53 from their current set of contracts they aren't against upgrading anywhere they can.
Then, you have to drop the notion that the Lions ARE set at a position. As far as the front office is concerned, any position is upgradeable and will attempt to give a player a chance to win a job from another be that player a free agent or a draft pick.
This is the part most do not get. The Lions are perfectly happy with their roster as is, right now, without more free agency and/or without a draft. The Lions are also perfectly happy to upgrade any position on the team right now, no matter what player would have to fight for his job or risk being cut (or traded). Because they are happy with their current roster they will often times take the best player available (based on their ranking criteria) and allow that player to compete for a job. However, because they are perfectly willing to upgrade any position on the roster they will target certain players who they have ranked substantially higher then their current roster and position themselves (via trade) to take that player.
Either way, they are in fact adding talent to the roster. Someone gets added, someone else doesn't make the final roster (or gets traded away). The team as a whole improves.
Yeah, that might mean they draft a DT, a RB, and a WR when they "need" a CB, OT, and LB. In the end though, the team as a whole improved talent-wise even if a specific position group did not. You keep doing that and you keep fielding a team with talent... instead of a team with no talent who goes 0-16.
The players on the roster have been ranked. The players in the draft are being ranked. The Lions will be looking to add talent to their roster in the draft, whether they target a specific player and go get him or take the BPA that falls to them at their draft spot remains to be seen. At some point it is simply not worth trading (up or down) if the "dance partner" wants too much (or is offering too little) so the "plan" is somewhat dependent on what others will do (and who others take).
When the draft is over, the Lions will continue to add to the roster with players who can compete with the current roster of names in an attempt to further upgrade any and every position, even if that position is 3rd string QB or 5th string WR. An upgrade is an upgrade, the 51st through 53rd ranked guys on the roster will never ever be safe... the Lions will always be looking to get better, even if one position group suffers (a little) for a season while they build on another.
No team has a perfect roster. No team has 53 pro-bowlers. Every team has holes. As long as your team is constantly upgrading, constantly improving, they will do better then they did before. If you draft the very best player you possibly can every time you pick in the draft, you get better as a team as well. In the end, what more can you ask for?
Okay, back to the 2012 draft. Applying the Lions "draft plan" to the hundreds of draftable players and what do we get? First, the Lions may target a specific player and try to trade up to get him. If the "cost" is too high they will not pull the trigger. If the "cost" is acceptable, they trade up and pick the guy they really want. You can bet that player is an immediate starter and a definite upgrade to the current starter if it's in the first round. Someone who will be an improvement to the team for years to come. Since it's very rare to get that great trade or player in that way, it's more likely the Lions will have a group of 4 to 8 guys they want at pick #23 and will wait to see who is still there when they are on the clock. If all 4 to 8 guys are there, they will entertain offers to trade down... 3 to 7 spots... so that they can still get one of their guys. If no trades look decent, they pick... the BPA out of the group they predetermined they want. As so it'll go for each round. If it's later in the draft, the draft pick will be an option to upgrade a backup position. ALL backup positions are supposed to constantly be competing to be the starter, both right now and eventually on down the road.
The things that help a potential draft pick be ranked higher include (in no particular order) a hard worker, a strong guy, a fast player, a smart player, a leader, someone who gets along with others who are hard workers, and of course... talent. Health, be it physical or mental, are negatives. Talent still trumps physical and mental health though, so at some point even a player with negatives becomes the best player available. Some players are simply not suited to the Lions style of play and are more or less exempt from consideration.
Find a player who is very talented, a hard worker, who is strong and fast and smart, someone who is a leader and fits the Lions scheme and you probably found a player the Lions will try to move up for in order to draft him. If the cost is too much, they will simply wait and take someone else who is nearly ranked as high. If you can figure out what the other teams will do and who is left then continue looking at talent and effort and strength and speed and leadership and of course one who fits the Lions schemes and you have the pick... you had better have completely forgotten about what position that player plays as you can be sure the Lions did... at least as far as need goes. The one caveat here is that the pick must be ranked as high or higher then the current player on the roster... so unless the 23rd pick is a QB ranked higher then Stafford that QB isn't going to be picked... or a TE higher then Pettigrew... or a WR higher then Calvin Johnson... etc.
What I mean is, at pick #23, the player taken could be a CB, or a Safety, or a LB, or a DE, or a Guard, or a Tackle as long as said player is ranked higher then the current Lion holding that position. The 1st rounder is considered to be a starter, later rounds, a backup, so the ranking must match the player the draft pick will be competing against for a roster spot. What position is needed more then another is irrelevant.
The Lions draft plan is to increase the talent level of the 53 man roster. Nothing more, and most definitely, nothing less.
Somewhere in that mix there are a few who realize that the Lions won't draft certain players because those specific players don't fit what they do or if they do fit what they do, there is no roster spot for the player. Now even though that small group is closer to correct then the rest, they are still off on one thing, if a high enough ranked player drops to the Lions and they can't get decent value to trade out of their spot they will take said player. Should you have read all my blog posts you would probably figure I fit into this last group (and you would be right) and you would also know I got caught being wrong when the Lions DID in fact draft a defensive tackle last year despite my insistence they would not.
Hold up, say the BPA crowd, taking Fairley was what they should've done. But BPA means they won't package picks and trade up to target LeShoure, or Jahvid Best the year before. The Lions did not wait until it was their turn and then take the BPA, they targeted a specific player and went after him. How does that fit in with BPA?
Just what is the Lions draft plan?
In order to figure that out, you need to change the way you think about the draft.
The Lions do not see the draft as a way to fill a need, the Lions see it as a way to add talent to the roster... the entire roster.
Unlike free agency the salary cap isn't a part of the equation and so the Lions are free to add whatever talent they can acquire. They want the best they can possibly get whenever they draft a player.
You also have to drop the notion that the Lions aren't set at a position. That they have holes in the roster. As far as the front office is concerned, the Lions can and would field a team based on their current roster. That doesn't mean the current roster are guaranteed jobs, in fact, they are not (well, most of the players are not anyway). Some contracts guarantee certain players will in fact make the final roster but the majority of the team have no such guarantee. So while they would field a team of 53 from their current set of contracts they aren't against upgrading anywhere they can.
Then, you have to drop the notion that the Lions ARE set at a position. As far as the front office is concerned, any position is upgradeable and will attempt to give a player a chance to win a job from another be that player a free agent or a draft pick.
This is the part most do not get. The Lions are perfectly happy with their roster as is, right now, without more free agency and/or without a draft. The Lions are also perfectly happy to upgrade any position on the team right now, no matter what player would have to fight for his job or risk being cut (or traded). Because they are happy with their current roster they will often times take the best player available (based on their ranking criteria) and allow that player to compete for a job. However, because they are perfectly willing to upgrade any position on the roster they will target certain players who they have ranked substantially higher then their current roster and position themselves (via trade) to take that player.
Either way, they are in fact adding talent to the roster. Someone gets added, someone else doesn't make the final roster (or gets traded away). The team as a whole improves.
Yeah, that might mean they draft a DT, a RB, and a WR when they "need" a CB, OT, and LB. In the end though, the team as a whole improved talent-wise even if a specific position group did not. You keep doing that and you keep fielding a team with talent... instead of a team with no talent who goes 0-16.
The players on the roster have been ranked. The players in the draft are being ranked. The Lions will be looking to add talent to their roster in the draft, whether they target a specific player and go get him or take the BPA that falls to them at their draft spot remains to be seen. At some point it is simply not worth trading (up or down) if the "dance partner" wants too much (or is offering too little) so the "plan" is somewhat dependent on what others will do (and who others take).
When the draft is over, the Lions will continue to add to the roster with players who can compete with the current roster of names in an attempt to further upgrade any and every position, even if that position is 3rd string QB or 5th string WR. An upgrade is an upgrade, the 51st through 53rd ranked guys on the roster will never ever be safe... the Lions will always be looking to get better, even if one position group suffers (a little) for a season while they build on another.
No team has a perfect roster. No team has 53 pro-bowlers. Every team has holes. As long as your team is constantly upgrading, constantly improving, they will do better then they did before. If you draft the very best player you possibly can every time you pick in the draft, you get better as a team as well. In the end, what more can you ask for?
Okay, back to the 2012 draft. Applying the Lions "draft plan" to the hundreds of draftable players and what do we get? First, the Lions may target a specific player and try to trade up to get him. If the "cost" is too high they will not pull the trigger. If the "cost" is acceptable, they trade up and pick the guy they really want. You can bet that player is an immediate starter and a definite upgrade to the current starter if it's in the first round. Someone who will be an improvement to the team for years to come. Since it's very rare to get that great trade or player in that way, it's more likely the Lions will have a group of 4 to 8 guys they want at pick #23 and will wait to see who is still there when they are on the clock. If all 4 to 8 guys are there, they will entertain offers to trade down... 3 to 7 spots... so that they can still get one of their guys. If no trades look decent, they pick... the BPA out of the group they predetermined they want. As so it'll go for each round. If it's later in the draft, the draft pick will be an option to upgrade a backup position. ALL backup positions are supposed to constantly be competing to be the starter, both right now and eventually on down the road.
The things that help a potential draft pick be ranked higher include (in no particular order) a hard worker, a strong guy, a fast player, a smart player, a leader, someone who gets along with others who are hard workers, and of course... talent. Health, be it physical or mental, are negatives. Talent still trumps physical and mental health though, so at some point even a player with negatives becomes the best player available. Some players are simply not suited to the Lions style of play and are more or less exempt from consideration.
Find a player who is very talented, a hard worker, who is strong and fast and smart, someone who is a leader and fits the Lions scheme and you probably found a player the Lions will try to move up for in order to draft him. If the cost is too much, they will simply wait and take someone else who is nearly ranked as high. If you can figure out what the other teams will do and who is left then continue looking at talent and effort and strength and speed and leadership and of course one who fits the Lions schemes and you have the pick... you had better have completely forgotten about what position that player plays as you can be sure the Lions did... at least as far as need goes. The one caveat here is that the pick must be ranked as high or higher then the current player on the roster... so unless the 23rd pick is a QB ranked higher then Stafford that QB isn't going to be picked... or a TE higher then Pettigrew... or a WR higher then Calvin Johnson... etc.
What I mean is, at pick #23, the player taken could be a CB, or a Safety, or a LB, or a DE, or a Guard, or a Tackle as long as said player is ranked higher then the current Lion holding that position. The 1st rounder is considered to be a starter, later rounds, a backup, so the ranking must match the player the draft pick will be competing against for a roster spot. What position is needed more then another is irrelevant.
The Lions draft plan is to increase the talent level of the 53 man roster. Nothing more, and most definitely, nothing less.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Lions' Salary Cap Picture as of March 30th 2012
When it comes to the Detroit Lions salary cap situation it is very rare when you get real and accurate information. Every nugget is precious and helps me to more accurately track their cap situation... that is when the new information doesn't confuse the issue. Yesterday I received a link to some of that accurate information and after studying it I'm left with only a couple of questions.
First, the information: http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/03/30/salary-cap-situation-for-each-team/
Now the specific Lions info from that link:
Detroit Lions
Current contracts: 47
Previous year carryover: $1,364,071.00
Adjustments: $2,802,484.00
Adjusted cap: $124,766,555.00
Team cap: $120,246,822.00
Cap room: $4,519,733.00
Team cash: $117,573,300.00
And now the explanation (or my interpretation) of that info going line by line. The information is based on the top 51 contracts as those are the only ones that currently count against the salary cap until the season starts. The Lions Current Contracts number is 47 because there are 4 unsigned tenders that also count against the cap. Avril's franchise tag, Levy's Hilliard's and Sammie Lee Hill's restricted free agent tenders.
It was reported elsewhere multiple times that the Lions carryover from 2011 was $1.3 million. The accurate number is actually $1,364,071.00 (a great example of why it's so hard to be accurate). This was information I did not have until yesterday.
The Lions have Adjustments of $2,802,484.00. This number would normally consist of LTBE (Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were not earned last year and thus carried over to this year along with NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were actually earned last year and thus have to come off of this year's cap figure. This year it also includes a $1.6 million addition courtesy of the Redskins and Cowboys. What I don't know and my question is, does it include the $1.5 million a team can borrow from 2015-2017? Did the Lions do that yet or are they saving it? I can not deduce that from the information provided so I will assume it does not yet include this number. I'm guessing. I could be in error. But I have nothing to go on other then that the Lions are likely to wait until they absolutely need it before they do it.
The Adjusted cap figure of $124,766,555.00 is the original team cap figure of $120.6 million plus the carryover plus the adjustments. I had the Lions at $125 million even counting the borrowing from the future, so this is actually a better figure then I had IF they haven't yet borrowed from the future.
Team cap of $120,246,822.00 is how much cap space the top 51 contracts are taking up. This number is $1.919 million different then what I had. This brings up questions for me as far as what did I miss? It could be one or more roster bonuses or workout bonuses that I didn't have. It could be one or more LTBE bonuses for 2012 that I don't know about. It could be some other kind of bonus not reported. Or, it could be any combination of those things. Since I do not know what I missed I had to throw the number into the "unknown bonus" cell of my chart and count it in. Even though I don't have the missing info I do now at least know exactly what number I am looking for, that's new, I did not know exactly what I was missing before. So while I don't know yet what it pertains to, I do at least know exactly how much I'm looking for.
Cap room of $4,519,733.00. This is how much salary cap space the Lions currently have to work with. It also happens to be just over what is going to be needed to sign their draft picks. They can still sign players to fill up their 80 man roster but it will have to be contracts that fall in or near the bottom of cap usage column since only the top 51 contracts count. One other point on this figure, I assume it's before the Kevin Smith contract is factored in since his numbers are not yet available from NFLPA and I assume that is where the team cap numbers I linked to came from originally. (There I go, assuming again).
Update: When those draft picks sign, they will likely land in the top 51, freeing up cap space when the same number of players who currently count stop counting. This actually means the Lions have a little more to spend on Free Agency then I let on.
The Team cash figure of $117,573,300.00 is a new number teams, or more accurately the NFL, has to keep track of to prove to the NFLPA that the new CBA is being followed as far as the floor of what has to be spent is concerned.
So there you have it. The Detroit Lions have $4,519,733.00 in cap space available which may or may not include Kevin Smith's contract which may or may not matter (if he does or doesn't hit the top 51 contracts) and it may or may not include borrowing the $1.5 million from the future that a team is allowed to do any time before the season starts.
It also means I am on the look out for cap info to explain the $1.919 million I was off, be it roster or workout bonuses, LTBE bonuses, or other bonuses for the top 51 player contracts.
First, the information: http://blogs.nfl.com/2012/03/30/salary-cap-situation-for-each-team/
Now the specific Lions info from that link:
Detroit Lions
Current contracts: 47
Previous year carryover: $1,364,071.00
Adjustments: $2,802,484.00
Adjusted cap: $124,766,555.00
Team cap: $120,246,822.00
Cap room: $4,519,733.00
Team cash: $117,573,300.00
And now the explanation (or my interpretation) of that info going line by line. The information is based on the top 51 contracts as those are the only ones that currently count against the salary cap until the season starts. The Lions Current Contracts number is 47 because there are 4 unsigned tenders that also count against the cap. Avril's franchise tag, Levy's Hilliard's and Sammie Lee Hill's restricted free agent tenders.
It was reported elsewhere multiple times that the Lions carryover from 2011 was $1.3 million. The accurate number is actually $1,364,071.00 (a great example of why it's so hard to be accurate). This was information I did not have until yesterday.
The Lions have Adjustments of $2,802,484.00. This number would normally consist of LTBE (Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were not earned last year and thus carried over to this year along with NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonuses that were actually earned last year and thus have to come off of this year's cap figure. This year it also includes a $1.6 million addition courtesy of the Redskins and Cowboys. What I don't know and my question is, does it include the $1.5 million a team can borrow from 2015-2017? Did the Lions do that yet or are they saving it? I can not deduce that from the information provided so I will assume it does not yet include this number. I'm guessing. I could be in error. But I have nothing to go on other then that the Lions are likely to wait until they absolutely need it before they do it.
The Adjusted cap figure of $124,766,555.00 is the original team cap figure of $120.6 million plus the carryover plus the adjustments. I had the Lions at $125 million even counting the borrowing from the future, so this is actually a better figure then I had IF they haven't yet borrowed from the future.
Team cap of $120,246,822.00 is how much cap space the top 51 contracts are taking up. This number is $1.919 million different then what I had. This brings up questions for me as far as what did I miss? It could be one or more roster bonuses or workout bonuses that I didn't have. It could be one or more LTBE bonuses for 2012 that I don't know about. It could be some other kind of bonus not reported. Or, it could be any combination of those things. Since I do not know what I missed I had to throw the number into the "unknown bonus" cell of my chart and count it in. Even though I don't have the missing info I do now at least know exactly what number I am looking for, that's new, I did not know exactly what I was missing before. So while I don't know yet what it pertains to, I do at least know exactly how much I'm looking for.
Cap room of $4,519,733.00. This is how much salary cap space the Lions currently have to work with. It also happens to be just over what is going to be needed to sign their draft picks. They can still sign players to fill up their 80 man roster but it will have to be contracts that fall in or near the bottom of cap usage column since only the top 51 contracts count. One other point on this figure, I assume it's before the Kevin Smith contract is factored in since his numbers are not yet available from NFLPA and I assume that is where the team cap numbers I linked to came from originally. (There I go, assuming again).
Update: When those draft picks sign, they will likely land in the top 51, freeing up cap space when the same number of players who currently count stop counting. This actually means the Lions have a little more to spend on Free Agency then I let on.
The Team cash figure of $117,573,300.00 is a new number teams, or more accurately the NFL, has to keep track of to prove to the NFLPA that the new CBA is being followed as far as the floor of what has to be spent is concerned.
So there you have it. The Detroit Lions have $4,519,733.00 in cap space available which may or may not include Kevin Smith's contract which may or may not matter (if he does or doesn't hit the top 51 contracts) and it may or may not include borrowing the $1.5 million from the future that a team is allowed to do any time before the season starts.
It also means I am on the look out for cap info to explain the $1.919 million I was off, be it roster or workout bonuses, LTBE bonuses, or other bonuses for the top 51 player contracts.
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