Monday, January 16, 2012

Lions Cap Space & Free Agency

The Lions have a lot of cap space tied up into their current (2012) roster. By my count the team has 37 players signed and they are using up $108,702,884 in salary cap space. Now that looks like an exact number but it's not, it is my calculated guess. The Lions do not divulge salary information so all calculations must be pieced together from various sources, sources that aren't always correct, and even with that there are times when educated guesses are still required. At this point in the off season if I'm within a million dollars I feel I'm doing fairly well. Updates to my cap chart can and often do happen weekly as new information presents itself.

The above salary cap number includes the $1 million escalation that Matthew Stafford earned in his base salary by finishing in the top 5 at QB but it does not include the $4.5 million NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonus that Calvin Johnson earned. That figure will be a cap adjustment for the Lions (meaning their available cap space will be reduced by that amount). All teams have the option of carrying over unused cap from 2011 and I expect the Lions to do so. All teams have the option of "borrowing" up to $1.5 million in cap from a future period simply by asking, I expect the Lions may take advantage of that as well. The actual base salary cap figure for each team (the unadjusted salary cap figure) has not yet been released, so there's another guess. Taking all my guesses into consideration I believe the Lions will have close to an adjusted salary cap figure of $124 million.

The sum total of these guess means the Lions have about $15.3 million in cap space available to re-sign their free agents or see them go elsewhere. They also need to have enough for their draft picks and they always go into the season with at least $2 million in space available.

So how are they going to do that? First, they will try to sign Calvin Johnson to a contract extension. If it's worked right, even though it's going to be the largest contract ever for a wide receiver, it could free up some cap space in 2012. CJ has a salary of $14 million in 2012 and by the Lions reducing that figure but paying a large signing bonus (that gets spread over the length of the new contract for cap purposes) it's possible to free up some cap space this year.

The Lions can also restructure some contracts to free up space. These five players have large salaries in 2012 and are all candidates for this move: Burleson, Raiola, Stafford, KVB and Suh. I'm not talking a pay cut, I'm talking about taking most of their salary for 2012 and paying it all at once as an advance, which then in turn would spread the cap hit out over the rest of their contract. For example; reduce Nate Burleson's salary down to $1 million from $4 million but pay him the $3 million as a signing bonus. The $3 million gets spread out over the remaining 3 years of his contract (a million dollars per year). The end result is he still gets $4 million in 2012, $3 million all at once the rest weekly during the season, but the cap hit goes from $4 million in 2012 to $2 million and adds $1 million in cap hits to 2013 and 2014.

Doing these restructures costs future caps as much as it saves in 2012, so a team doesn't want to do more then is necessary... but having the option gives the Lions room to work if need be. In fact, between the contract extension for CJ and contract re-structures for as many as 5 players, the Lions could free up well over $15 million, or double what they currently have available.

With that money (err.. cap space) the Lions need to re-sign (or find the replacements for):

Cliff Avril DE UFA
Jeff Backus T UFA
Bobby Carpenter LB UFA
Erik Coleman S UFA
Rashied Davis WR UFA
Leonard Davis T UFA
Isaiah Ekejiuba LB UFA
Andre Fluellen DT UFA
Ben Graham P UFA
Chris Harris S UFA
Jerome Harrison RB UFA
Shaun Hill QB UFA
Stefan Logan WR UFA
Brandon McDonald CB UFA
Maurice Morris RB UFA
Don Muhlbach C UFA
Kevin Smith RB UFA
Drew Stanton QB UFA
Maurice Stovall WR UFA
Stephen Tulloch LB UFA
Eric Wright CB UFA

Sammie Lee Hill DT RFA
Corey Hilliard T RFA
DeAndre Levy LB RFA
Ashlee Palmer LB RFA

It might be easier to see what work the Lions have to do if presented in a different format. I have a spreadsheet called "depth chart" that visually (by putting the above players in pale yellow) just how the team would be gutted if the Lions don't re-sign a large number of these players. The spreadsheet can be found at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html

I also have a spreadsheet with my salary cap computations on it on that same site (go to salary cap instead of depth chart in the menu system).

Next up, who should the Lions try to keep and who should they let go? After that, and something that also applies to the depth chart, is the 2012 draft. Stay tuned.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Wildcard Playoff Game 1 @ New Orlean Saints

No Holds Barred.

The Lions finally make it into the NFL playoffs for the first time since 1999. You remember 1999 right? Y2K, 56k Modems, and the Lions holding practice in Saginaw (sans Barry Sanders). Well, in keeping with the 90's the Lions saw fit to lose in the first round of the playoffs with a score of 28-45 after leading the game at half time.

So what happened? Simple really, the strength of the Lions D, and in fact the entire base principle of the defense, is a strong pass rush from the 4 on the D-Line, and that was totally negated, not by anything other then the refs allowing the players to play. In other words, they never called holding on the Saints, not once, despite repeated holds. Now it's true a hold could probably be called on every play, and it's also true that the Lions didn't get called as often as they held, but the Saints OLine took it to a new level and completely neutralized the Lions strength of their defense by holding all game long, blatantly, and with no repercussions.

That left it a shoot out, and a shoot out it was. The Lions are in the playoffs with a rookie WR, a 23 year old QB, and a ton of pressure. Still, until the mistakes started piling up in the 3rd and 4th quarter things were going rather well (for the offense). Stafford ended up 28 of 43 for 380 yards 3 TDs (and 1 Rushing TD) but with 2 INTs. Compare that to Brees' 33 for 43 for 466 yards and 3 TD's with no INTs. Calvin Johnson had 12 catches for 211 yards and 2 TDs, however, the entire Lions team managed only 32 yards rushing, that's not going to win you many games in the playoffs.

The Lions will need to address the run game somehow this off season, be it OLine, RBs, scheme, whatever. They will also need to work on the D some more (but we already knew that). There's a lot of work to do this off season with free agents (not so much getting free agents but not losing free agents) and then there's the draft where the Lions will be drafting somewhere in the early 20's. I've heard calls for replacing the DC but I don't think it's the scheme so much as continuing to build the talent on defense.

The Lions need to be able to play no holds barred football, and they need to do it against referees who bar no holds.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Game 16: Lions at Green Bay Packers

Nearly.

The now 10-6 Detroit Lions nearly broke the 20 year losing streak at Lambeau Field today where they lost to the Green Bay Packers 41-45.

Matthew Stafford was 36 of 59 for 520 yards, 5 TD's and 2 INT's. That brought Staffords total passing yards this season to 5,038... nearly enough to break Dan Marino's 1984 record of 5,084 yards. Never mind that both Drew Brees AND Tom Brady both broke Dan Marino's record this year... it was a tremendous season for a Detroit Lion Quarterback any way you want to look at it. Stafford did break another Bobby Lane record though, most games in a single season with 3 or more TD's (Stafford = 7, Layne = 6).

Calvin Johnson had 11 receptions for 244 yards and a TD today which was nearly enough for him to break Herman Moore's single season reception yardage record established in 2005, just 15 yards short.

Titus Young had 4 catches for 24 yards and 2 TD's, nearly had 3 TD's but the refs incorrectly called his other one complete out of bounds and because of a couple earlier bad calls by the officials the Lions were out of challenges. The Lions did get a field goal out of it but they could've used those 4 points (see final score).

So how did the Lions lose this game? The Lions defense was unable to keep pressure on backup quarterback Matt Flynn who threw for 480 yards, 6 TD's and 1 INT. It's that simple. But why weren't they able to keep pressure on Flynn? A number of reasons and you have to add them all up to get the result the Lions got.

1. Flynn may be a backup but he doesn't hold the ball forever before throwing it, he has a similar release to Rodgers and fits well in their scheme.

2. The Wide Receivers and Tight Ends that played in Green Bay are able to get open and get yards after the catch, that isn't news, everyone knows they are good at that.

3. Lions defense is entirely dependent on getting a pass rush from the front 4. They were unable to create that pressure on a regular basis this game. Note: Williams was unable to play this game, Fairley isn't close to 100%, and Hill started out strong but faded away later in the game.

4. Delmas didn't play and others are playing hurt. However, that shouldn't matter as the Packers didn't play some of their starters either and others may be banged up a bit. Difference here is the Packers are a little deeper in secondary depth, the Lions can't afford to be without that many starters on D if they are to play against a top notch O, which everyone knows the Packers are. Despite all that, the Lions nearly beat the Packers in Lambeau... the Lions D was no worse then the Packers D, not really.

It's possible (if the Lions can get past the New Orleans Saints this coming Saturday) that the Lions could end up playing the Packers in Lambeau again this post season, and this time it might be for a chance to play in the superbowl... so as far as breaking records go, I'd much prefer the Lions to win THAT game then THIS game... should it come to that.

All the Lions lost today was their 5th seed spot in the playoffs, they are the 6th seed and are playing toe to toe with the big boys, because even if it's hard for us fans to grasp it, the Lions are now one of the big boys too.

Don't believe me? Well, let's take a look at the quarterback passing record... and see where the Lions 23 year old QB is on the list...

1. Drew Brees: 5,476 yards in 2011
2. Tom Brady: 5,235 yards in 2011
3. Dan Marino: 5,084 yards in 1984
4. Drew Brees: 5,069 yards in 2008
5. Matthew Stafford: 5,038 yards in 2011

That's not a typo, that's not a fluke, that's real numbers that are real hard to get unless you are one of the big boys.

Anyway, for 20 teams their season is over. They are flipping coins to determine their draft order (if they are tied with anyone else) and getting ready to fire coaches.

The Lions are not one of those teams. They are getting ready to play the Saints again this year in New Orleans and they have just as good a chance of winning that game as the Saints do. It'll be loud, it'll be tough, but it's not nearly the impossible task that it used to be. In fact, the Saints are going to have their hands full, especially after the Lions coaches get done challenging the Lions defensive players all week.

In preseason (you can go see my September blog post) I predicted the Lions would go 10-6 this year, take 2nd in the division, and make the playoffs. I was wrong on two games, they won one I thought they'd lose and lost one I thought they'd win, but as for the rest of it I'm dead one. So here's my first post season prediction...

Lions beat the Saints in New Orleans with a score of 30 to 28.

Things aren't nearly as bad as some seem to think.

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Game 15 San Diego Chargers @ Home

That's a record.

The Detroit Lions MAKE THE PLAYOFFS!!! By defeating the Chargers 38-10 the 10-5 Lions have secured a wildcard spot in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (when they did the same thing with an 8-8 record).

Matt Stafford was 29 of 36 for 373 yards 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. That was enough to set three new single season Lions quarterback records... most pass attempts in a single season, most pass completions in a single season, most passing yards in a single season. Stafford already set the single season record for touchdowns in one year last week.

Calvin Johnson had 1 TD which ties Cloyce Box (1952) with 15 TDs for a Lions single season wide receiver TD record.

Brandon Pettigrew set the record for most Lions TE receptions in a single season. He already held the record for most receiving yards by a TE but now has both 1st and 2nd place (as far as I can tell from the info I have).

The Lions lead the league in defensive points scored this year if I recall what the announcers said during the game correctly (I haven't been able to verify that online yet). There could be other records broken today as well, I will try to post them when I find out about them down the road.

Speaking of the road, the Lions now travel to Green Bay next week for their final regular season game. It's quite likely that both teams will sit their starters long before half time so it remains to be seen if the Lions depth can win the first game at Lambeau Field since before Jason Hanson was drafted.

The primary goal of that game though will be (for both teams) to come out healthy.

Just noted another record on twitter, attendance at Lions game in 2011 set a record with 509,949 total people attending games. (Via the @DetroitLionsNFL)

There is one more record I would like to see the Lions break this season though, they have won four national championships but since the Super Bowl began they have never played in one. Time to break that record.

Merry Christmas to Lions fans everywhere!

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Game 14: Lions at Oakland Raiders

Megafantastic.

It's been awhile since the Lions had me literally on the edge of my seat at the end of a game. Today's 28-27 win over the Oakland Raiders was just such a game. I would like to thank Suh and his Suh sized thumb for catching a piece of that football while it was on it's way for what would've been an NFL record long field goal (and a win). What a fantastic play.

The Lions were down 14-27 well past the halfway mark of the 4th quarter when another fantastic player took the conservative gloves off and starting driving his team down the field. Stafford ended up 29 of 52 for 391 yards and 4 TD's. That puts him at 33 TD's so far on the year and THAT makes him the quarterback with the most TD's in a season ever for the Detroit Lions (topping the former record holder Scott Mitchell who's 1995 record of 32 is now in 2nd place). Plus there are still 2 more games to play... time to set that bar higher!

Matt Stafford also garnered enough yards to leap Kitna's 2007 yardage record putting him in 3rd place, behind only Kitna's 2006 and Mitchell's 1995 yardage records. My math tells me that Stafford needs only 64 yards to get into 2nd place and 194 yards to take over 1st place. Basically, this means that after next weekends game against the Chargers Matthew Stafford will hold both the yardage and touchdown records for one season for a Lions Quarterback (all time) and he is only 23 years of age. Fantastic!

Several of the receivers dropped passes in the final minutes of the game but eventually the true stars of the game (if not the team) started making the plays needed to score points. Megatron (Calvin Johnson) eventually took over all the clutch duties as he finishes the game with 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TD's. Most of those fantastic plays were in the final 5 minutes of the game. It's enough yards to rank 3rd most in Lions franchise history and it was the highest total since Richard Johnson had 248 in 1989. Megatron is only 1 TD behind the record best Wide Receiver in Lions history with the most TDs in a single season (Cloyce Box has 15 and the record he set back in 1952). While CJ may break the single season TD record for a Lions WR he is quite a ways behind the yardage record holder, Herman Moore, who set that bar in 1995 with 1686 yards (CJ is currently at 1335 and is now in 4th place behind Herman Moore, Brett Perriman and Germane Crowell).

Jason Hanson kicked all 4 extra points and didn't get a chance to kick any field goals, but he too set a mega-record when he became only the 6th player in NFL History with 2,000 career points. He is the first player to score 2,000 points with 1 franchise. He is also the only player on the Lions roster originally drafted by the Lions who has had a winning season before this year. The Lions are at 9-5, their first winning season since 1999, and the first winning season for guys like Backus, Raiola, and all the rest. Their first winning season in the NFL, ever. That's MEGA-Fantastic!

The team is also setting records, for example, the Lions are the first team in NFL history to come back and win 4 games when down 13(+) points in 1 season.

By the way, if there are any Lions you'd like to see go to the probowl the voting ends Monday Night (19th of December) at http://www.NFL.com/probowl

The Lions now have a 2 game lead over the other teams looking to make the playoffs with the wildcard designation... with only 2 games left they can clinch their spot with one more win. Due to some tiebreaker they have and some they do not they are not yet guaranteed to make the playoffs at 9-7, but they are very very close. If the season ended today they'd have to play their first playoff game in 13 years on the left coast against the San Fransisco 49ers, doesn't that bring back some other 1990ish like memories?

Be that as it may, the next game is in Detroit against the San Diego Chargers who just won a few minutes ago against the Ravens and who are notorious for winning in December, then again, the Lions last regular season game is against the Packers at Lambeau Field, so it's up to the fans to be loud ALL GAME LONG next weekend!!! I don't care what the score is or who did what wrong, the Chargers must be continually harassed by the Detroit Lions Fans all game long. It is CRITICAL!

Let's all give ourselves a Mega-Fantastic Christmas and help the Lions make the playoffs next Saturday!

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Game 13 Minnesota Vikings @ Home

Timely.

Unexpectedly, the Lions whooped on the Vikings 31 - 14 the first half of the game today, only to get whooped 3-14 the second half. Lions do win the game with a final score of 34-28 but it was a near thing. The Lions usually start slow and then pick it up in the 2nd half, it was very timely of the defense to help pad the lead in the first half because the second half wasn't good enough to win the game. The Vikings turnaround began when Ponder was benched for Webb. The Vikings kept attacking the Lions and would've won except for a forced fumble on the final play of the game... a very timely fumble.

All we'll hear about is how the refs missed the facemask penalty that would've voided the fumble and subsequent recovery by the Lions. Never mind all the other missed calls all game long, heck, all season long that hurt the Lions. It just happens that for a change the missed call would've helped the opponent and perhaps allowed them to win the game. You could call it inevitable that sooner or later, one game or another, in one season or another, a timely non-call would help the Lions win a much needed game. Well, most won't think that way but I do. Do I feel bad about it? No, not at all. It wasn't the only missed call of the game that altered the subsequent events for either team, just the most noticeable due to the timing.

The Lions are now 8-5 and in the wildcard hunt. If they win out they are in. If they lose one game they are likely still in due to owning some tie breakers. They could even make it in with only one more win but then would need a lot of help to make it. I'd prefer they not back into the playoffs but keep improving and get in all on their own. It's a very timely point in the season to get better.

Titus Young, he's getting better, managing to lead all the receivers with 87 yards and a TD today. Pettigrew also contributed with 57 yards and a TD. The defense started out the game with style, Avril getting sacks, Alphonso Smith getting interceptions. The Defense wore down as the game went on, especially chasing after Webb, but they just barely did enough to win the game. Matt Stafford? He did a pedestrian 20/29 for 227 yards and 2 TDs, but no interceptions.

It won't be long and I'll be able to post all the Lions records that Matt Stafford broke. He's advancing fast on "most TDs" and should earn "most yards" this season too if he can keep going. That's right, we are seeing a record breaking season by a Lions QB, despite all the miscues. He gets his play improved and he may own these records for decades.

Lions haven't been .500 or better since BM (Before Millen). That's a very long time and it kind of feels good to know that they can not have a losing season this year, but I'm hungry for more.

The Lions travel to the left coast next week to play the Raiders. Suh will be back and hopefully can control his hunger and channel it into great play. Some other injured Lions might be healthy enough to play as well. It's going to be a tough game but I like the matchup and expect another timely win.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Game 12: Lions at New Orlean Saints

Doesn't matter.

I predicted the Lions would lose this game 24-31, I was pretty close, they lost it 17-31. It really doesn't matter that they lost, since I figured the Lions would be 7-5 at this point anyway (which they are) and in the hunt for the wildcard spot (which they are).

There were some things in this game that do matter though, not the least of which is that Stafford is healing up, he played without a glove for the first time in a month and managed 31 of 44 for 408 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. The INT was actually a ball stripped from the hands of the WR who had caught the pass, but that doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter that the Lions were flagged 11 times for 107 yards, what does matter is that nearly half of those were so questionable as to be on the verge of flagrant. It once again affected the mental state of the players who took their frustrations out on opposing players (and in one case the ref) three times which caused 3 of the 11 flags. Somehow the players (and their coaches) need to learn how to twist those emotions into playing harder, not making stupid penalties. If any player should've lost his cool it was Nate Burleson, but he managed to just keep working away eventually leading the team in passing yardage (93 yards total after penalties).

It doesn't matter that Hanson missed a couple of field goals. He goes through this whenever a new holder is on the field, and this makes the 4th holder in less then 4 months.

It doesn't matter that Suh wasn't in the game or that once again a few of the play calls were questionable gambles. The Lions are not yet as polished a team as the Saints. That could change though, fast. Last year the Packers weren't all that polished then right about this time of the year they went on a winning streak that they still haven't broke. It's not too late to turn this around, in fact, this would be the ideal time to do just that.

Time to start playing with a little more discipline, with a little more controlled tenacity, and with some of that "us against the world" teamwork.

All the other teams in the NFC wildcard playoff hunt also lost this weekend, so while it would've been nice to have put a game up on all of them, the Lions at least didn't lose any ground. In the end, this loss didn't matter, but, should they learn from it and improve as a team, it could matter quite a bit... for the good.