Game 4 Analysis

There is only 1 more day until the curse of Bobby Lane ends http://www.curseofbobbylayne.com/ and last week Ford Sr ended the curse of Matt Millen by firing him (or he was asked to step down, not sure how it actually went down). But neither thing was enough to get the Lions to play even half way decently following their bye week. Despite all that has happened, had the Lions won today they'd only be 1 game out of first place in the mighty NFC North. But instead, Orton had a career day (that sure does happen a lot this year during Lions games) and the Lions managed to score only 1 TD before losing 34-7.

What was even worse then the play on the field was the body language of the players during the game. There was a very brief upsurge in energy when the offense went to 4 wide and got play calls that Kitna, Roy and others actually believe in... only to drain away within a few plays. Bodden looked like he was being forced to play in an ugly dress and Redding continually tried to get the Bears fans to get loud when the Lions defense was on the field. (Apparently he didn't recognise all the Bears jerseys in the seats).

The wonderous OC Colletto has totally lost the skilled players on offense. The equally wonderous DC Barry is losing the D players in chunks, and the STC Kwam looks as lost as ever (to be fair, I truly think that he was born that way, but I can not be certain). The best plays on the field involved Avril, or Kevin Smith, or Felton. Does that mean the head coach (and lead idiot in this group of idiots) will play the rest of the rookies next week? No, probably not.

The Lions have lost 11 of their last 12 games (stretching back to last year) and they are still playing 6 of their front seven from last year on defense. They recognized a need, drafted for it, and then proceeded to not play them except grudgingly. Well, that has to stop! If you are not capable of recognizing that fact then do a Bobby Ross and go home.

So here are my suggestions for next week. First, demote Colletto. He is a barely adequate (at the extreme most) offensive line coach. Promote Kippy to OC. Tell Jefferson he needs to have extra study sesssions with the WRs all week (until they learn the plays). Open up the offense so that the players start to believe again. Promote Stanton to #2 QB, give him the last half of the blow out games (all of which might be blow outs depending on what actually changes). Do not inactivate Cohen, Fluellen or Dizon next week. Play them. In fact, Start Them! If they mess up too much, then sit them for stretches at a time. But get them reps in the game and see if they truly are worse then the starters (note: it would be VERY hard to be worse then the starters). Inactivate Moore, Cody, and McDonald or Furrey (you need Middelton for returns, but you only need one slot WR, especially if you can't ever do anything on offense).

Then, blitz more. You don't like to Blitz? Tough! You're a lame duck coach with no chance of ever getting a gig like this again for the rest of your life. Blitz. Attack. Do what you are not doing because what you are doing sucks.

If you're just going to keep pounding your rock you are just going to keep sucking on Sundays (and I'm not talking ice cream here). Change it up. Now. Or forever wish you had done something else.

Game 3 Analysis

Can we now put the Mike Martz hatred to rest? We all know J.T. O'Sullivan is not a better QB then Kitna, but it is quite evident now who is the better OC (as if I haven't been saying that all year long). Remember, San Fran is a worse team then the Lions the past couple years. They have a new OC and new QB. Atlanta had a new front office, new QB, new lots of things. Green Bay had a new QB. The Lions have no excuses at all for the coaching or the lack of talent on the field. None. You can not come up with a single one that will hold water.

The wide receivers to a man can no longer catch. Kitna no longer is as accurate. Why? Because they've lost interest. They do not like the play calling. They do not believe the coaches. If you don't see it you will, as they continue to self destruct. Remember, this is the EASY part of the schedule. That was said all off season. So is it going to get worse? Yep.

Unless.

Unless the players are suddenly going to start buying into what the coaches are saying. That is, assuming that what the coaches are saying is even close to being correct. Barry may very well have the worst defense in the league for the 2nd year in a row. They are horrid. And for some insane reason they will not play the newcomers... sure they aren't seasoned vets. But they have energy. They still beleive in the coaches. What will happen if they play? The Lions lose? Ha! They are anyway. Play Dizon until he messes up so much you have to play Lenon instead. Play Cohen until you can't take it any more then put Cody or Darby or whoever back in. Try them THEN decide if they can't do it.

The offense has zero faith in the defense and are in zero agreement with the offensive play calling. At this point, as things stand right now, the Lions will not win a game in 2008. The coaches now have an uphill battle this next two weeks. Can they get through to the players?

Maybe.

If they do, the Lions might maybe win 5 games this year. If they don't. One win would be a minor miracle.

Will it get better next year? No. It won't.

It is time. Time to ask for Millen's resignation. Time to hire a for real, honest to god, front office experienced CEO (who is probably right now the 2nd in command to a real CEO). Someone already high up in a successful organization... like the Cowboys, or the Patriots. Someone who can come in and clean house... from the lousy scouting department to the lousy cap managers to the terrible disconnected PR people... to the head coach. Time for said new head coach to hire real coorindators, for offense, for defense, for special teams.

The cupboard is not bare. There are a few decent players on the team actually worth keeping. But, like Miami, or Atlanta, it is time to start over with real staff.

So Mr Ford, ask for Millen's resignation. Let all know you have an opening. Then inform the coaching staff to play the new talent so they gain experience and can be properly evaluated by the next coaching staff. Save us a year's worth of time by doing this... and then look at all the options and get a real true blue (and silver) CEO who can turn this embarrasment around.

No one is going to blame you for doing it. They already are blaming you for not doing it earlier. Do the right thing. Do it now. Get rid of Millen.

Game 2 Analysis

What a game!

Lions defense started out giving up score after score, again, allowing a 21 to 0 score. But the Lions (FINALLY!) started playing more of the "new talent", namely Cherilus, Dizon (some), Alma-Francis (some), and a little Pearson now and then... and caught up then passed the Packers with a small lead mid-way through the 4th quarter. So, do they try to drain the clock and go with run plays? No. Then the defense allows another field goal so that the Packers take the lead. So again, do the Lions take a time consuming trip down the field to score a game winning field goal? Nope. They try to pick on the wounded CB Woodson, who has enough pain killer to keep a horse running on two legs, and Kitna loses his patience (or concentration, or both) and throws a pick for a TD.

Down 2 scores Kitna truly blows it by throwing yet another TD ... and eventually doing it again when it no longer mattered any more.

Did Kitna lose the game? Yep. Sure did.

But.

The defense can not be excused for the 24 points before the interceptions. The coaching staff can not be excused for failing to protect the lead and drain the clock with plays called for that specific purpose.

So, keep playing the new talent, and thank you ever so much for getting Middleton back on the team... but learn when to hurry up, when to spread out the offense, when to call the run and the short safe passes to drain the clock... and it wouldn't hurt to learn how to settle down your QB when he gets flustered either.

So, blame Kitna, I am... but don't let the defense or the coaches off the hook.

Game 1 Analysis.

Okay, I skipped the blog updates all summer as I was trying to avoid my being so negative, but now that game 1 is out of the way I don't find a reason to continue to avoid it.

I wasn't happy about the cuts, but was happy about the Rudi Johnson and Nece pickups. Though I think cutting Gardner and keeping Cannon would've been the smarter choice. I didn't like that they cut all the returners, but the new guy, Thomas, may have a future in it IF he quits hesitating and just goes full bore, thinking and cutting while on the fly. I didn't like the loss of Buster Davis, or going into the season with the exact same starting Linebackers, they are just too important in the T2 defense to stop the run. I didn't like keeping 11 dlinemen... there was no need, 3 of them will be inactive every week anyway... most likely. I didn't like only having 4 WRs and 4 TEs. I also HATE that the rookies they do keep aren't being promoted to starter status over the ineffective starters. Despite what they think, the problems on offense was not Martz and the problems on defense was not all S. Rogers.

Okay, so Game 1. Did they mix the run and pass effectively? No. Was it because of the running backs? No. Was it the 4 tight ends on the roster? Nope. Was it the play calling? Nope. It was the inability of the offensive line to block. Period. Same problem as last year. And what do you know, the starting line is the exact same starting line as last year. Golly. Hard to figure out why they can't run.

Smith is a keeper though, did you see him throw his body in a fake at the goal line so that Kitna could complete an easy pass to Fitz? Wow. Rudi is no slouch either, he just needs time (lots of it) to learn the plays. That is normal and another small complaint I had to those who were okay with keeping two RBs and hoping the Lions would pick up another or suggesting they must be planning it, as if the Lions could know that a worthy one would be available and would actually sign with them.

The Falcons completed 9 passes. That's it. That's all they needed anyway though. Those quick passes into the middle will be a problem all year with the current LB corp (just like last year). But the Falcons scoring that many points using the run is inexcusable. The tackling was terrible. The run fits were a joke. The dline, despite keeping 11 on the roster, sucked. The linebackers, despite keeping the "vets" over any rookies, sucked. And playing Fisher over Bodden is STUPID.

Kitna, not wanting to be left out, managed to add a number of dumb plays in the 3rd quarter to the film. Raoila started bobbing his head just before every snap again. The blocking by the offensive tackles was amazingly ineffective, despite keeping 4 TEs on the roster to help them. The play calling was suspect at first, and didn't matter later on. No sense of urgency when behind in the late 3rd quarter. No hurry up offense. No help from any of the coordinators (that's offense, defense and special teams). And a head coach that will "fix it" after seeing the film. Well, you were supposed to "fix it" before the season started, and you could always try "fixing it" during the game too, it's not unheard of.

So, the plusses? The RB and WR positions aren't bad. One TE is capable of staying healthy and not bad. The guys on the bench are well rested. That's about it I think. Oh, Jason and Nick are still good kickers. Okay, that's it for the positives.

Can they win the 7 games I predicted they would come away with this season? It won't be easy, since this was one of the 7 games I predicted they'd win. Next week is a very good Favreless GB team. I don't go much for the QB being the bigger half of the team, and I don't think that highly of Favre, so I think that Green Bay is still likely the division dominating team (with the Vikings coming in 2nd) but it is a home game and maybe, just maybe, they'll try harder to tackle after a solid week of getting yelled at by the so far terrible coaching staff.

Maybe.

NetRat’s draft analysis.

Prior to the draft, back in mid-March, I updated my estimated Lions roster to reflect the changes that occurred in free agency and identified 8 “needs” the Lions had to address.

The link to that page is http://www.thenetrat.com/2008%20Depth%20Chart.xls

There you will see that the first three needs were starters at running back, middle linebacker, and defensive end. The next was a starter at right tackle who could eventually push Backus for the left tackle position. Number 5 was a defensive tackle to push Cody for his job and play in the DT rotation (and contribute in that role). The 6th need was a fullback to work with Bradley but the guy would have to take Fitzsimmons job to make the roster. The 7th was someone to challenge Cason for the punt or kick returner job. And finally, a cornerback to challenge last years backups for a job.

Most people agreed with my assessments at the time, maybe not in the order I presented them, but the general needs were pretty much agreed upon, not just by forumites but by the various “professionals” in the field of football.

So the draft begins. The Lions had visited with 50 guys prior to the draft (either at pro-days, at the combine, or invited them to Allen Park). The list (created by LionHawkeye of Mlive.com Lions forum) can be found in my blog at http://thenetrat.blogspot.com/
(where this analysis will also be posted for future reference just like last year’s draft analysis is). The name of the 50th player on this list was not added because prior to the draft it could not be verified…. a WR named Moore. (post-draft we find he met for a long time with Lions officials at his pro day).

The Lions had a list of first round prospects they wanted to draft, ranked in order of desire on their draft board (what their ranks were we will never ever know for sure). DE Derrick Harvey… gone. LB Keith Rivers… gone. MLB Jerod Mayo… gone. OT Chris Williams… gone. Then at pick 15 the Lions are sitting there with the next guy on their board Gosder Cherilus (the Lions rank heavily in favor of hard working, non-stop motor type guys… which makes their board look different then many other teams’ boards… then again, every team ranks heavily in favor of something or other, no two teams are alike). They manage to move down just 2 picks and gain 10 spots in round 3 AND a 5th round pick. With no more trades and the ever increasing threat that Cherilus could be taken by another team, the Lions draft him. Was it a reach? Many think so, but the reality is, another team WAS going to draft Cherilus in round one and the Lions next pick was at #45… Cherilus certainly was not going to make it to that pick. Was it the best player available at the time? Some do not think so, but the Lions ranking is different then “some” others, to them it was the best player available. Cherilus has a very nasty attitude on the football field, takes it personally upon himself to safe guard the QB, and will not quit on a play, ever. I say it was a good pick and the O-Line will be better for it (though Foster may not say the same).

Cross need #4 off my list.
Round 2, the Lions planned on taking any one of a number of players here and they had met many offensive tackles who were likely to be taken in this round but with Cherilus already drafted the need for OT drops those names down the list… they had expected to take Mayo in the first round and there are only 5 linebackers left on their board they have an interest in, most of whom are projects and would not be of immediate help. When the Lions draft LB Jordon Dizon he was one of the best players on their board and he was the player they felt could start this year. It was the right pick. Cross need #3 off my list.

Round 3, the lions made some moves to target guys on their board they wanted. You can’t say they reached for any of them since they meant to move to those spots to take those guys. Right or wrong. The first choice is RB Kevin Smith. This guy was only sixty some yards short of breaking Barry Sanders college single season yardage record. He did break Marcus Allen’s carries record by a good margin. He has great vision, great balance, has a little bit of an ego (very un-Barry like) and has produced results repeatedly. He is likely to be a very special addition to the team. A great pick and cross need #1 off my list.

The further drafting of DT Andre Fluellen and LB/DE Cliff Avril takes care of needs 2 and 5. They still have to challenge vets for jobs and win them. But these two are both high motor, hard working football players. I do not expect them to have any trouble unseating the vets in front of them (who really haven’t produced squat).

The Lions continue with 2 picks in both rounds 5 and 7. The FB Jerome Felton will challenge Fitzsimmons for FB and probably win. The return guy Moore can play WR or RB as well as return kicks. He could take a roster spot away from either Ellis or Cason, depending on how well he does and how poorly the previous return guys do this preseason (one of them is likely to stay as a backup returner should Felton make the team). Needs 6 and 7, off the list. (notice the list says draft someone to challenge them, not necessarily to win the job outright or have the position given to them). The final round brought in another DT Landon Cohen who at least make the practice squad if not the team and a special teams demon and Safety Caleb Campbell who’s services may be needed in Detroit after Pearson recent legal trouble. Campbell will also try to take away the backup SSLB spot from either Lenon or Lewis. He may or may not make the team but he is going to be given a number of chances to do just that.

The Lions didn’t do anything for the backup CB position (my 8th listed need) but I think all things considered I can live with that. My overall grade for this draft is an A-

They got real football players who have produced results. They will work hard for the team and their teammates. They all have a chance to make the team and contribute THIS year. They addressed the first 7 and my 8 listed needs. They did not reach into another round for a player… and they managed a few trades that worked perfectly for them every time. A blue chip draft for a team who didn’t draft in the top 10 finally this year. I applaud them all for getting it right. Now it’s up to the players to win those jobs and play.

LionHawkeye's list of players the Lions have shown an interest in:

If The player has a star by their name I am still trying to verify source of contact with team. Otherwise the player has met with GM, Coach, Pro day Scout, Combine Interview, or had a Draft Visit with the Lions.
0. Jake Long OT Michigan

1. Keith Rivers OLB USC

2. Derrick Harvey DE FLA

3. Chris Williams OT Vandy

4. Rashard Mendenhall RB ILL

5. Jerod Mayo ILB TENN

6. Jonathan Stewert RB ORE

7. Brandon Albert OG/OT Virginia

8. Felix Jones RB ARK

9. Leodis McKelvin CB Troy

------------------1----------2------------------

10. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston Coll

11. Curtis Lofton ILB Oklahoma

12. Antoine Cason CB Arizona *

13. Carl Nicks OT Nebraska

14. Chris Johnson RB ECU

15. Jamaal Charles RB Texas

16. Cliff Avril DE Purdue

17. Anthony Collins OT Kansas

18. Xavier Adibi LB Virginia Tech *

19. Bruce Davis DE UCLA

-------------2-----------------3----------------

20. Geno Hayes LB Florida State

21. Kendall Langford DE Hampton

22. Letroy Guion DT Florida State

23. Jordon Dizon LB Colorado

24. Kevin Smith RB Central Florida

25. Andre Fluellen DE Florida State

26. Matt Forte RB Tulane

27. Jason Jones DT/DE Eastern Michigan

----------------3--------------4------------------------

28. Johnny Dingle DE West Virginia

29. Jo-Lonn Dunbar LB Boston College

30. Darius Reynaud WR West Virginia

31. Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV

32. Bryan Smith DE Mcneese State

33. William Hayes DE Winston Salem State

----------------4--------------5---------------------------

34. Joey Haynos TE Maryland *

35. Caleb Campbell S Army

36. Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina

37. Tim Hightower RB Richmond

38. Adrian Smith RB Bethel College

39. Landon Cohen DT Ohio

40. Nick Cleaver TE New Mexico State

41. Shawn McMackin OL Hofstra

42. Justin Tryon CB Arizona State

-----------------5----------?--------------------------------

43. Jerome Felton RB Furman

44. Jayson Foster RB Georgia Southern

45. Cory Boyd RB South Carolina

46. Dan Ziedman P Idaho State

47. Kalvin Mcrae RB Ohio *

48. Marcus Buggs OLB Vanderbilt

49. Brian Johnson DE Gardner Webb

Some draft thoughts.

LB. The Lions "could" start the season with Lewis at SSLB and Lenon at MLB, similar to last year. They want to and need to upgrade at least one of those positions, but, Marinelli tends to not start rookies at key positions. Thus, I truly believe they will draft a LB that can start at SSLB assuming he can beat out Lewis for that job, then he will get moved to MLB next year. I truly believe that Lenon IS the MLB this year unless the draft pick is stellar and beats Lenon out (moving Lenon to SSLB). Mayo, Rivers and Connor seem to have "it" but I am not ready to bet the farm on that just yet.

DE. The Lions "could" play White, Smith, 5-0 and DeVries but that combo didn't get a decent pass rush at all last year. A pass rush is CRITICAL to this defense. Fixing the LB and CB spots won't matter if there is no pass rush. Again, Marinelli has a tendency to not start rookies, and rookie DEs tend to not be dominate their first year. I'm looking for a ready made immediate starter like Harvey, Gholston or Long... or someone who will be lucky to be activated and rotate in this year.

RB. Calhoun and Cason as depth behind Bell is a horrid thought. The lions must MUST get another RB and the guy HAS TO beat out either Calhoun or Cason for a job... then preferably be able to take the job away from Bell as well. Rookies can play RB fairly well (except for blitz pickups usually) and of any draft pick I would think the RB has the best chance of actually becoming a starter.

RT. The Lions are set at Guard. A drafted guard has almost no chance of making the roster. They like Raoila. They love Backus. That leaves RT. They have Foster and Scott. They may not play a rookie here anyway. The Oline is pretty much set (in the Lions' eyes, not mine) but they will get a tackle for depth and we can only hope the guy can earn a starting job sometime this year.

DT. I do not see a solid DT group on the team. I truly feel they need to draft a decent DT who can first make the team, then make the active roster for the games, then help in the rotation.

I see no reason to draft a TE, Guard, Center, WR, S or CB unless the guy has a reasonable chance of taking a roster spot away from someone who is more or less nearly guaranteed to make the team. That last WR or CB spot who can be the return guy does have some potential, and I hope they do try to go that route.

LB, DE, RB, RT, DT and a return guy. Potentially 2 starters (RB and Return guy) potentially 2 rotate in (DE, DT) and the LB will need to be VERY good to see the field (barring injuries).

I'm not trying to be "down" on the Lions. This is truly how I see it.