Prior to the draft, back in mid-March, I updated my estimated Lions roster to reflect the changes that occurred in free agency and identified 8 “needs” the Lions had to address.
The link to that page is http://www.thenetrat.com/2008%20Depth%20Chart.xls
There you will see that the first three needs were starters at running back, middle linebacker, and defensive end. The next was a starter at right tackle who could eventually push Backus for the left tackle position. Number 5 was a defensive tackle to push Cody for his job and play in the DT rotation (and contribute in that role). The 6th need was a fullback to work with Bradley but the guy would have to take Fitzsimmons job to make the roster. The 7th was someone to challenge Cason for the punt or kick returner job. And finally, a cornerback to challenge last years backups for a job.
Most people agreed with my assessments at the time, maybe not in the order I presented them, but the general needs were pretty much agreed upon, not just by forumites but by the various “professionals” in the field of football.
So the draft begins. The Lions had visited with 50 guys prior to the draft (either at pro-days, at the combine, or invited them to Allen Park). The list (created by LionHawkeye of Mlive.com Lions forum) can be found in my blog at http://thenetrat.blogspot.com/
(where this analysis will also be posted for future reference just like last year’s draft analysis is). The name of the 50th player on this list was not added because prior to the draft it could not be verified…. a WR named Moore. (post-draft we find he met for a long time with Lions officials at his pro day).
The Lions had a list of first round prospects they wanted to draft, ranked in order of desire on their draft board (what their ranks were we will never ever know for sure). DE Derrick Harvey… gone. LB Keith Rivers… gone. MLB Jerod Mayo… gone. OT Chris Williams… gone. Then at pick 15 the Lions are sitting there with the next guy on their board Gosder Cherilus (the Lions rank heavily in favor of hard working, non-stop motor type guys… which makes their board look different then many other teams’ boards… then again, every team ranks heavily in favor of something or other, no two teams are alike). They manage to move down just 2 picks and gain 10 spots in round 3 AND a 5th round pick. With no more trades and the ever increasing threat that Cherilus could be taken by another team, the Lions draft him. Was it a reach? Many think so, but the reality is, another team WAS going to draft Cherilus in round one and the Lions next pick was at #45… Cherilus certainly was not going to make it to that pick. Was it the best player available at the time? Some do not think so, but the Lions ranking is different then “some” others, to them it was the best player available. Cherilus has a very nasty attitude on the football field, takes it personally upon himself to safe guard the QB, and will not quit on a play, ever. I say it was a good pick and the O-Line will be better for it (though Foster may not say the same).
Cross need #4 off my list.
Round 2, the Lions planned on taking any one of a number of players here and they had met many offensive tackles who were likely to be taken in this round but with Cherilus already drafted the need for OT drops those names down the list… they had expected to take Mayo in the first round and there are only 5 linebackers left on their board they have an interest in, most of whom are projects and would not be of immediate help. When the Lions draft LB Jordon Dizon he was one of the best players on their board and he was the player they felt could start this year. It was the right pick. Cross need #3 off my list.
Round 3, the lions made some moves to target guys on their board they wanted. You can’t say they reached for any of them since they meant to move to those spots to take those guys. Right or wrong. The first choice is RB Kevin Smith. This guy was only sixty some yards short of breaking Barry Sanders college single season yardage record. He did break Marcus Allen’s carries record by a good margin. He has great vision, great balance, has a little bit of an ego (very un-Barry like) and has produced results repeatedly. He is likely to be a very special addition to the team. A great pick and cross need #1 off my list.
The further drafting of DT Andre Fluellen and LB/DE Cliff Avril takes care of needs 2 and 5. They still have to challenge vets for jobs and win them. But these two are both high motor, hard working football players. I do not expect them to have any trouble unseating the vets in front of them (who really haven’t produced squat).
The Lions continue with 2 picks in both rounds 5 and 7. The FB Jerome Felton will challenge Fitzsimmons for FB and probably win. The return guy Moore can play WR or RB as well as return kicks. He could take a roster spot away from either Ellis or Cason, depending on how well he does and how poorly the previous return guys do this preseason (one of them is likely to stay as a backup returner should Felton make the team). Needs 6 and 7, off the list. (notice the list says draft someone to challenge them, not necessarily to win the job outright or have the position given to them). The final round brought in another DT Landon Cohen who at least make the practice squad if not the team and a special teams demon and Safety Caleb Campbell who’s services may be needed in Detroit after Pearson recent legal trouble. Campbell will also try to take away the backup SSLB spot from either Lenon or Lewis. He may or may not make the team but he is going to be given a number of chances to do just that.
The Lions didn’t do anything for the backup CB position (my 8th listed need) but I think all things considered I can live with that. My overall grade for this draft is an A-
They got real football players who have produced results. They will work hard for the team and their teammates. They all have a chance to make the team and contribute THIS year. They addressed the first 7 and my 8 listed needs. They did not reach into another round for a player… and they managed a few trades that worked perfectly for them every time. A blue chip draft for a team who didn’t draft in the top 10 finally this year. I applaud them all for getting it right. Now it’s up to the players to win those jobs and play.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
LionHawkeye's list of players the Lions have shown an interest in:
If The player has a star by their name I am still trying to verify source of contact with team. Otherwise the player has met with GM, Coach, Pro day Scout, Combine Interview, or had a Draft Visit with the Lions.
0. Jake Long OT Michigan
1. Keith Rivers OLB USC
2. Derrick Harvey DE FLA
3. Chris Williams OT Vandy
4. Rashard Mendenhall RB ILL
5. Jerod Mayo ILB TENN
6. Jonathan Stewert RB ORE
7. Brandon Albert OG/OT Virginia
8. Felix Jones RB ARK
9. Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
------------------1----------2------------------
10. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston Coll
11. Curtis Lofton ILB Oklahoma
12. Antoine Cason CB Arizona *
13. Carl Nicks OT Nebraska
14. Chris Johnson RB ECU
15. Jamaal Charles RB Texas
16. Cliff Avril DE Purdue
17. Anthony Collins OT Kansas
18. Xavier Adibi LB Virginia Tech *
19. Bruce Davis DE UCLA
-------------2-----------------3----------------
20. Geno Hayes LB Florida State
21. Kendall Langford DE Hampton
22. Letroy Guion DT Florida State
23. Jordon Dizon LB Colorado
24. Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
25. Andre Fluellen DE Florida State
26. Matt Forte RB Tulane
27. Jason Jones DT/DE Eastern Michigan
----------------3--------------4------------------------
28. Johnny Dingle DE West Virginia
29. Jo-Lonn Dunbar LB Boston College
30. Darius Reynaud WR West Virginia
31. Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV
32. Bryan Smith DE Mcneese State
33. William Hayes DE Winston Salem State
----------------4--------------5---------------------------
34. Joey Haynos TE Maryland *
35. Caleb Campbell S Army
36. Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina
37. Tim Hightower RB Richmond
38. Adrian Smith RB Bethel College
39. Landon Cohen DT Ohio
40. Nick Cleaver TE New Mexico State
41. Shawn McMackin OL Hofstra
42. Justin Tryon CB Arizona State
-----------------5----------?--------------------------------
43. Jerome Felton RB Furman
44. Jayson Foster RB Georgia Southern
45. Cory Boyd RB South Carolina
46. Dan Ziedman P Idaho State
47. Kalvin Mcrae RB Ohio *
48. Marcus Buggs OLB Vanderbilt
49. Brian Johnson DE Gardner Webb
0. Jake Long OT Michigan
1. Keith Rivers OLB USC
2. Derrick Harvey DE FLA
3. Chris Williams OT Vandy
4. Rashard Mendenhall RB ILL
5. Jerod Mayo ILB TENN
6. Jonathan Stewert RB ORE
7. Brandon Albert OG/OT Virginia
8. Felix Jones RB ARK
9. Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
------------------1----------2------------------
10. Gosder Cherilus OT Boston Coll
11. Curtis Lofton ILB Oklahoma
12. Antoine Cason CB Arizona *
13. Carl Nicks OT Nebraska
14. Chris Johnson RB ECU
15. Jamaal Charles RB Texas
16. Cliff Avril DE Purdue
17. Anthony Collins OT Kansas
18. Xavier Adibi LB Virginia Tech *
19. Bruce Davis DE UCLA
-------------2-----------------3----------------
20. Geno Hayes LB Florida State
21. Kendall Langford DE Hampton
22. Letroy Guion DT Florida State
23. Jordon Dizon LB Colorado
24. Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
25. Andre Fluellen DE Florida State
26. Matt Forte RB Tulane
27. Jason Jones DT/DE Eastern Michigan
----------------3--------------4------------------------
28. Johnny Dingle DE West Virginia
29. Jo-Lonn Dunbar LB Boston College
30. Darius Reynaud WR West Virginia
31. Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV
32. Bryan Smith DE Mcneese State
33. William Hayes DE Winston Salem State
----------------4--------------5---------------------------
34. Joey Haynos TE Maryland *
35. Caleb Campbell S Army
36. Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina
37. Tim Hightower RB Richmond
38. Adrian Smith RB Bethel College
39. Landon Cohen DT Ohio
40. Nick Cleaver TE New Mexico State
41. Shawn McMackin OL Hofstra
42. Justin Tryon CB Arizona State
-----------------5----------?--------------------------------
43. Jerome Felton RB Furman
44. Jayson Foster RB Georgia Southern
45. Cory Boyd RB South Carolina
46. Dan Ziedman P Idaho State
47. Kalvin Mcrae RB Ohio *
48. Marcus Buggs OLB Vanderbilt
49. Brian Johnson DE Gardner Webb
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Some draft thoughts.
LB. The Lions "could" start the season with Lewis at SSLB and Lenon at MLB, similar to last year. They want to and need to upgrade at least one of those positions, but, Marinelli tends to not start rookies at key positions. Thus, I truly believe they will draft a LB that can start at SSLB assuming he can beat out Lewis for that job, then he will get moved to MLB next year. I truly believe that Lenon IS the MLB this year unless the draft pick is stellar and beats Lenon out (moving Lenon to SSLB). Mayo, Rivers and Connor seem to have "it" but I am not ready to bet the farm on that just yet.
DE. The Lions "could" play White, Smith, 5-0 and DeVries but that combo didn't get a decent pass rush at all last year. A pass rush is CRITICAL to this defense. Fixing the LB and CB spots won't matter if there is no pass rush. Again, Marinelli has a tendency to not start rookies, and rookie DEs tend to not be dominate their first year. I'm looking for a ready made immediate starter like Harvey, Gholston or Long... or someone who will be lucky to be activated and rotate in this year.
RB. Calhoun and Cason as depth behind Bell is a horrid thought. The lions must MUST get another RB and the guy HAS TO beat out either Calhoun or Cason for a job... then preferably be able to take the job away from Bell as well. Rookies can play RB fairly well (except for blitz pickups usually) and of any draft pick I would think the RB has the best chance of actually becoming a starter.
RT. The Lions are set at Guard. A drafted guard has almost no chance of making the roster. They like Raoila. They love Backus. That leaves RT. They have Foster and Scott. They may not play a rookie here anyway. The Oline is pretty much set (in the Lions' eyes, not mine) but they will get a tackle for depth and we can only hope the guy can earn a starting job sometime this year.
DT. I do not see a solid DT group on the team. I truly feel they need to draft a decent DT who can first make the team, then make the active roster for the games, then help in the rotation.
I see no reason to draft a TE, Guard, Center, WR, S or CB unless the guy has a reasonable chance of taking a roster spot away from someone who is more or less nearly guaranteed to make the team. That last WR or CB spot who can be the return guy does have some potential, and I hope they do try to go that route.
LB, DE, RB, RT, DT and a return guy. Potentially 2 starters (RB and Return guy) potentially 2 rotate in (DE, DT) and the LB will need to be VERY good to see the field (barring injuries).
I'm not trying to be "down" on the Lions. This is truly how I see it.
DE. The Lions "could" play White, Smith, 5-0 and DeVries but that combo didn't get a decent pass rush at all last year. A pass rush is CRITICAL to this defense. Fixing the LB and CB spots won't matter if there is no pass rush. Again, Marinelli has a tendency to not start rookies, and rookie DEs tend to not be dominate their first year. I'm looking for a ready made immediate starter like Harvey, Gholston or Long... or someone who will be lucky to be activated and rotate in this year.
RB. Calhoun and Cason as depth behind Bell is a horrid thought. The lions must MUST get another RB and the guy HAS TO beat out either Calhoun or Cason for a job... then preferably be able to take the job away from Bell as well. Rookies can play RB fairly well (except for blitz pickups usually) and of any draft pick I would think the RB has the best chance of actually becoming a starter.
RT. The Lions are set at Guard. A drafted guard has almost no chance of making the roster. They like Raoila. They love Backus. That leaves RT. They have Foster and Scott. They may not play a rookie here anyway. The Oline is pretty much set (in the Lions' eyes, not mine) but they will get a tackle for depth and we can only hope the guy can earn a starting job sometime this year.
DT. I do not see a solid DT group on the team. I truly feel they need to draft a decent DT who can first make the team, then make the active roster for the games, then help in the rotation.
I see no reason to draft a TE, Guard, Center, WR, S or CB unless the guy has a reasonable chance of taking a roster spot away from someone who is more or less nearly guaranteed to make the team. That last WR or CB spot who can be the return guy does have some potential, and I hope they do try to go that route.
LB, DE, RB, RT, DT and a return guy. Potentially 2 starters (RB and Return guy) potentially 2 rotate in (DE, DT) and the LB will need to be VERY good to see the field (barring injuries).
I'm not trying to be "down" on the Lions. This is truly how I see it.
Friday, January 4, 2008
They fired Martz?!?!?!? And promoted who?!?!?
I can understand wanting to keep the system. I really can.
I can understand that it's not likely anyone can do this system as well as Martz has.
I can understand not going outside the team for an OC if they don't want to give someone a long term contract (which be a requisite from higher up, it would have to be, Marinelli certainly didn't decide this part of it).
I can understand covering up for a guy's inadequacies by promoting a 2nd guy to help out in some manner. I mean, you got to cover as many bases as you can if you are stuck.
I can NOT understand firing Martz (or coming to an agreement on it) in the first place unless the team is rebelling against him... and if the "team" is primarily Backus and Raoila (it sure aint' Kitna, Roy or McDonald) and I find out ever that it was, I may go totally phycho. In fact, for my sanity, I better never find out any of this had anything to do with Backus and Raoila (for they should be gone, not Martz).
I can not understand promoting the inexperienced in the NFL bad college OC to the Lions OC and not promoting the experienced NFL OC, unless his job is actually ABOVE OC.
I can not understand why they, or anyone else, thinks that any of this is a good idea.
I also, for the life of me, can NOT understand why Kwam is still a Lions coach.
I can understand that it's not likely anyone can do this system as well as Martz has.
I can understand not going outside the team for an OC if they don't want to give someone a long term contract (which be a requisite from higher up, it would have to be, Marinelli certainly didn't decide this part of it).
I can understand covering up for a guy's inadequacies by promoting a 2nd guy to help out in some manner. I mean, you got to cover as many bases as you can if you are stuck.
I can NOT understand firing Martz (or coming to an agreement on it) in the first place unless the team is rebelling against him... and if the "team" is primarily Backus and Raoila (it sure aint' Kitna, Roy or McDonald) and I find out ever that it was, I may go totally phycho. In fact, for my sanity, I better never find out any of this had anything to do with Backus and Raoila (for they should be gone, not Martz).
I can not understand promoting the inexperienced in the NFL bad college OC to the Lions OC and not promoting the experienced NFL OC, unless his job is actually ABOVE OC.
I can not understand why they, or anyone else, thinks that any of this is a good idea.
I also, for the life of me, can NOT understand why Kwam is still a Lions coach.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
2008 Roster / Depth Chart
I have created a 2008 Roster / Depth Chart based on the current 2007 one. Names in red are free agents, names in blue are restricted free agents and would need to be tendered an offer, and guys in black are already signed for 2008. The blank yellow boxes are the "holes" that need to be filled, preferably in free agency (I prefer to use the draft for depth and for competition to the guys already on the roster... let them win the job and the whole team is better for it).
http://www.thenetrat.com/2008%20Depth%20Chart.xls ( a link to which can be found at http://www.thenetrat.com )
DE being the number one need. Backup DT (to rotate in) being important as well. MLB and SSLB and RCB all should be found in free agency, the current roster doesn't contain anyone I would wish to start in 2008 at those positions.
I truly hope that Woody gets re-signed to play RT. He is better at it with no training camp and little practice then anyone the Lions have had playing there in at least a decade, longer actually.
http://www.thenetrat.com/2008%20Depth%20Chart.xls ( a link to which can be found at http://www.thenetrat.com )
DE being the number one need. Backup DT (to rotate in) being important as well. MLB and SSLB and RCB all should be found in free agency, the current roster doesn't contain anyone I would wish to start in 2008 at those positions.
I truly hope that Woody gets re-signed to play RT. He is better at it with no training camp and little practice then anyone the Lions have had playing there in at least a decade, longer actually.
Saturday, December 1, 2007
Couple thoughts... on 2007 and 2008
First, the Lions are not winning or losing the games I expected them to, and at this point in time I had them at 7-4, losing the next 3, and winning only one more. Instead, they are 6-5, and can potentially win more then 2 more and make the playoffs. It won't be easy, but they have lost some games this year they could have won with better play from various members of the team.
Having said that, my first thoughts of the coming off season are like this:
In free agency look to retain some of the current depth who will hit free agency without new contracts, and also look around the league for a starting cornerback, a starting linebacker, and a starting right tackle. It is unlikely they will be able to do this all in one year, but it sure would take care of some "holes".
After that, go into the draft trading and targeting players to take the job of starting DE (bye-bye Kalimba Edwards), potentially (as in eventually) starting linebackers, O-Tackle (bye-bye Backus), Center (bye-bye Raoila), and cornerback.
That'll leave a few picks to locate an honest to goodness speedy, dependable, return man.
Now, this is all going to change as things progress of course, but this is my preliminary line of thinking on the 1st of December 2007.
Oh, and why am I thinking that the only two reliable players on the O-Line need to be replaced? Because the O-Line has stunk for all 7 Millen years and there are only two constants ... Backus and Raoila. Mulitalo is doing very well, so neither can use the excuse that the LG needed help.
Having said that, my first thoughts of the coming off season are like this:
In free agency look to retain some of the current depth who will hit free agency without new contracts, and also look around the league for a starting cornerback, a starting linebacker, and a starting right tackle. It is unlikely they will be able to do this all in one year, but it sure would take care of some "holes".
After that, go into the draft trading and targeting players to take the job of starting DE (bye-bye Kalimba Edwards), potentially (as in eventually) starting linebackers, O-Tackle (bye-bye Backus), Center (bye-bye Raoila), and cornerback.
That'll leave a few picks to locate an honest to goodness speedy, dependable, return man.
Now, this is all going to change as things progress of course, but this is my preliminary line of thinking on the 1st of December 2007.
Oh, and why am I thinking that the only two reliable players on the O-Line need to be replaced? Because the O-Line has stunk for all 7 Millen years and there are only two constants ... Backus and Raoila. Mulitalo is doing very well, so neither can use the excuse that the LG needed help.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Forgot to post my Win / Loss Prediction online (game by game)
Sunday, September 9 at Oakland Raiders FOX 4:15 p.m. Win
Sunday, September 16 MINNESOTA VIKINGS FOX 4:05 p.m. Win
Sunday, September 23 at Philadelphia Eagles FOX 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, September 30 CHICAGO BEARS FOX 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, October 7 at Washington Redskins FOX 1:00 p.m. Win
Sunday, October 14 *** BYE WEEK ***
Sunday, October 21 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS FOX 1:00 p.m Win.
Sunday, October 28 at Chicago Bears FOX 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, November 4 DENVER BRONCOS CBS 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, November 11 at Arizona Cardinals FOX 4:15 p.m. Win
Sunday, November 18 NEW YORK GIANTS FOX 4:15 p.m.* Win
Thursday, November 22 GREEN BAY PACKERS FOX # 12:30 p.m. Win
Sunday, December 2 at Minnesota Vikings FOX 1:00 p.m.* Lose
Sunday, December 9 DALLAS COWBOYS FOX 1:00 p.m.* Lose
Sunday, December 16 at San Diego Chargers FOX 4:15 p.m.* Lose
Sunday, December 23 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS CBS 1:00 p.m.* Win
Sunday, December 30 at Green Bay Packers FOX 1:00 p.m.* Lose
Total = 8-8
(hopefully I'm being conservative)
Sunday, September 16 MINNESOTA VIKINGS FOX 4:05 p.m. Win
Sunday, September 23 at Philadelphia Eagles FOX 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, September 30 CHICAGO BEARS FOX 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, October 7 at Washington Redskins FOX 1:00 p.m. Win
Sunday, October 14 *** BYE WEEK ***
Sunday, October 21 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS FOX 1:00 p.m Win.
Sunday, October 28 at Chicago Bears FOX 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, November 4 DENVER BRONCOS CBS 1:00 p.m. Lose
Sunday, November 11 at Arizona Cardinals FOX 4:15 p.m. Win
Sunday, November 18 NEW YORK GIANTS FOX 4:15 p.m.* Win
Thursday, November 22 GREEN BAY PACKERS FOX # 12:30 p.m. Win
Sunday, December 2 at Minnesota Vikings FOX 1:00 p.m.* Lose
Sunday, December 9 DALLAS COWBOYS FOX 1:00 p.m.* Lose
Sunday, December 16 at San Diego Chargers FOX 4:15 p.m.* Lose
Sunday, December 23 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS CBS 1:00 p.m.* Win
Sunday, December 30 at Green Bay Packers FOX 1:00 p.m.* Lose
Total = 8-8
(hopefully I'm being conservative)
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