NetRat's Lions Blog

Lions Cap Space & Free Agency

2012-01-16T01:05:00.002-05:00

The Lions have a lot of cap space tied up into their current (2012) roster. By my count the team has 37 players signed and they are using up $108,702,884 in salary cap space. Now that looks like an exact number but it's not, it is my calculated guess. The Lions do not divulge salary information so all calculations must be pieced together from various sources, sources that aren't always correct, and even with that there are times when educated guesses are still required. At this point in the off season if I'm within a million dollars I feel I'm doing fairly well. Updates to my cap chart can and often do happen weekly as new information presents itself.

The above salary cap number includes the $1 million escalation that Matthew Stafford earned in his base salary by finishing in the top 5 at QB but it does not include the $4.5 million NLTBE (Not Likely To Be Earned) bonus that Calvin Johnson earned. That figure will be a cap adjustment for the Lions (meaning their available cap space will be reduced by that amount). All teams have the option of carrying over unused cap from 2011 and I expect the Lions to do so. All teams have the option of "borrowing" up to $1.5 million in cap from a future period simply by asking, I expect the Lions may take advantage of that as well. The actual base salary cap figure for each team (the unadjusted salary cap figure) has not yet been released, so there's another guess. Taking all my guesses into consideration I believe the Lions will have close to an adjusted salary cap figure of $124 million.

The sum total of these guess means the Lions have about $15.3 million in cap space available to re-sign their free agents or see them go elsewhere. They also need to have enough for their draft picks and they always go into the season with at least $2 million in space available.

So how are they going to do that? First, they will try to sign Calvin Johnson to a contract extension. If it's worked right, even though it's going to be the largest contract ever for a wide receiver, it could free up some cap space in 2012. CJ has a salary of $14 million in 2012 and by the Lions reducing that figure but paying a large signing bonus (that gets spread over the length of the new contract for cap purposes) it's possible to free up some cap space this year.

The Lions can also restructure some contracts to free up space. These five players have large salaries in 2012 and are all candidates for this move: Burleson, Raiola, Stafford, KVB and Suh. I'm not talking a pay cut, I'm talking about taking most of their salary for 2012 and paying it all at once as an advance, which then in turn would spread the cap hit out over the rest of their contract. For example; reduce Nate Burleson's salary down to $1 million from $4 million but pay him the $3 million as a signing bonus. The $3 million gets spread out over the remaining 3 years of his contract (a million dollars per year). The end result is he still gets $4 million in 2012, $3 million all at once the rest weekly during the season, but the cap hit goes from $4 million in 2012 to $2 million and adds $1 million in cap hits to 2013 and 2014.

Doing these restructures costs future caps as much as it saves in 2012, so a team doesn't want to do more then is necessary... but having the option gives the Lions room to work if need be. In fact, between the contract extension for CJ and contract re-structures for as many as 5 players, the Lions could free up well over $15 million, or double what they currently have available.

With that money (err.. cap space) the Lions need to re-sign (or find the replacements for):

Cliff Avril DE UFA
Jeff Backus T UFA
Bobby Carpenter LB UFA
Erik Coleman S UFA
Rashied Davis WR UFA
Leonard Davis T UFA
Isaiah Ekejiuba LB UFA
Andre Fluellen DT UFA
Ben Graham P UFA
Chris Harris S UFA
Jerome Harrison RB UFA
Shaun Hill QB UFA
Stefan Logan WR UFA
Brandon McDonald CB UFA
Maurice Morris RB UFA
Don Muhlbach C UFA
Kevin Smith RB UFA
Drew Stanton QB UFA
Maurice Stovall WR UFA
Stephen Tulloch LB UFA
Eric Wright CB UFA

Sammie Lee Hill DT RFA
Corey Hilliard T RFA
DeAndre Levy LB RFA
Ashlee Palmer LB RFA

It might be easier to see what work the Lions have to do if presented in a different format. I have a spreadsheet called "depth chart" that visually (by putting the above players in pale yellow) just how the team would be gutted if the Lions don't re-sign a large number of these players. The spreadsheet can be found at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html

I also have a spreadsheet with my salary cap computations on it on that same site (go to salary cap instead of depth chart in the menu system).

Next up, who should the Lions try to keep and who should they let go? After that, and something that also applies to the depth chart, is the 2012 draft. Stay tuned.

Wildcard Playoff Game 1 @ New Orlean Saints

2012-01-07T23:40:00.002-05:00

No Holds Barred.

The Lions finally make it into the NFL playoffs for the first time since 1999. You remember 1999 right? Y2K, 56k Modems, and the Lions holding practice in Saginaw (sans Barry Sanders). Well, in keeping with the 90's the Lions saw fit to lose in the first round of the playoffs with a score of 28-45 after leading the game at half time.

So what happened? Simple really, the strength of the Lions D, and in fact the entire base principle of the defense, is a strong pass rush from the 4 on the D-Line, and that was totally negated, not by anything other then the refs allowing the players to play. In other words, they never called holding on the Saints, not once, despite repeated holds. Now it's true a hold could probably be called on every play, and it's also true that the Lions didn't get called as often as they held, but the Saints OLine took it to a new level and completely neutralized the Lions strength of their defense by holding all game long, blatantly, and with no repercussions.

That left it a shoot out, and a shoot out it was. The Lions are in the playoffs with a rookie WR, a 23 year old QB, and a ton of pressure. Still, until the mistakes started piling up in the 3rd and 4th quarter things were going rather well (for the offense). Stafford ended up 28 of 43 for 380 yards 3 TDs (and 1 Rushing TD) but with 2 INTs. Compare that to Brees' 33 for 43 for 466 yards and 3 TD's with no INTs. Calvin Johnson had 12 catches for 211 yards and 2 TDs, however, the entire Lions team managed only 32 yards rushing, that's not going to win you many games in the playoffs.

The Lions will need to address the run game somehow this off season, be it OLine, RBs, scheme, whatever. They will also need to work on the D some more (but we already knew that). There's a lot of work to do this off season with free agents (not so much getting free agents but not losing free agents) and then there's the draft where the Lions will be drafting somewhere in the early 20's. I've heard calls for replacing the DC but I don't think it's the scheme so much as continuing to build the talent on defense.

The Lions need to be able to play no holds barred football, and they need to do it against referees who bar no holds.

Game 16: Lions at Green Bay Packers

2012-01-01T17:23:00.002-05:00

Nearly.

The now 10-6 Detroit Lions nearly broke the 20 year losing streak at Lambeau Field today where they lost to the Green Bay Packers 41-45.

Matthew Stafford was 36 of 59 for 520 yards, 5 TD's and 2 INT's. That brought Staffords total passing yards this season to 5,038... nearly enough to break Dan Marino's 1984 record of 5,084 yards. Never mind that both Drew Brees AND Tom Brady both broke Dan Marino's record this year... it was a tremendous season for a Detroit Lion Quarterback any way you want to look at it. Stafford did break another Bobby Lane record though, most games in a single season with 3 or more TD's (Stafford = 7, Layne = 6).

Calvin Johnson had 11 receptions for 244 yards and a TD today which was nearly enough for him to break Herman Moore's single season reception yardage record established in 2005, just 15 yards short.

Titus Young had 4 catches for 24 yards and 2 TD's, nearly had 3 TD's but the refs incorrectly called his other one complete out of bounds and because of a couple earlier bad calls by the officials the Lions were out of challenges. The Lions did get a field goal out of it but they could've used those 4 points (see final score).

So how did the Lions lose this game? The Lions defense was unable to keep pressure on backup quarterback Matt Flynn who threw for 480 yards, 6 TD's and 1 INT. It's that simple. But why weren't they able to keep pressure on Flynn? A number of reasons and you have to add them all up to get the result the Lions got.

1. Flynn may be a backup but he doesn't hold the ball forever before throwing it, he has a similar release to Rodgers and fits well in their scheme.

2. The Wide Receivers and Tight Ends that played in Green Bay are able to get open and get yards after the catch, that isn't news, everyone knows they are good at that.

3. Lions defense is entirely dependent on getting a pass rush from the front 4. They were unable to create that pressure on a regular basis this game. Note: Williams was unable to play this game, Fairley isn't close to 100%, and Hill started out strong but faded away later in the game.

4. Delmas didn't play and others are playing hurt. However, that shouldn't matter as the Packers didn't play some of their starters either and others may be banged up a bit. Difference here is the Packers are a little deeper in secondary depth, the Lions can't afford to be without that many starters on D if they are to play against a top notch O, which everyone knows the Packers are. Despite all that, the Lions nearly beat the Packers in Lambeau... the Lions D was no worse then the Packers D, not really.

It's possible (if the Lions can get past the New Orleans Saints this coming Saturday) that the Lions could end up playing the Packers in Lambeau again this post season, and this time it might be for a chance to play in the superbowl... so as far as breaking records go, I'd much prefer the Lions to win THAT game then THIS game... should it come to that.

All the Lions lost today was their 5th seed spot in the playoffs, they are the 6th seed and are playing toe to toe with the big boys, because even if it's hard for us fans to grasp it, the Lions are now one of the big boys too.

Don't believe me? Well, let's take a look at the quarterback passing record... and see where the Lions 23 year old QB is on the list...

1. Drew Brees: 5,476 yards in 2011
2. Tom Brady: 5,235 yards in 2011
3. Dan Marino: 5,084 yards in 1984
4. Drew Brees: 5,069 yards in 2008
5. Matthew Stafford: 5,038 yards in 2011

That's not a typo, that's not a fluke, that's real numbers that are real hard to get unless you are one of the big boys.

Anyway, for 20 teams their season is over. They are flipping coins to determine their draft order (if they are tied with anyone else) and getting ready to fire coaches.

The Lions are not one of those teams. They are getting ready to play the Saints again this year in New Orleans and they have just as good a chance of winning that game as the Saints do. It'll be loud, it'll be tough, but it's not nearly the impossible task that it used to be. In fact, the Saints are going to have their hands full, especially after the Lions coaches get done challenging the Lions defensive players all week.

In preseason (you can go see my September blog post) I predicted the Lions would go 10-6 this year, take 2nd in the division, and make the playoffs. I was wrong on two games, they won one I thought they'd lose and lost one I thought they'd win, but as for the rest of it I'm dead one. So here's my first post season prediction...

Lions beat the Saints in New Orleans with a score of 30 to 28.

Things aren't nearly as bad as some seem to think.

Game 15 San Diego Chargers @ Home

2011-12-24T22:24:00.002-05:00

That's a record.

The Detroit Lions MAKE THE PLAYOFFS!!! By defeating the Chargers 38-10 the 10-5 Lions have secured a wildcard spot in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 (when they did the same thing with an 8-8 record).

Matt Stafford was 29 of 36 for 373 yards 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. That was enough to set three new single season Lions quarterback records... most pass attempts in a single season, most pass completions in a single season, most passing yards in a single season. Stafford already set the single season record for touchdowns in one year last week.

Calvin Johnson had 1 TD which ties Cloyce Box (1952) with 15 TDs for a Lions single season wide receiver TD record.

Brandon Pettigrew set the record for most Lions TE receptions in a single season. He already held the record for most receiving yards by a TE but now has both 1st and 2nd place (as far as I can tell from the info I have).

The Lions lead the league in defensive points scored this year if I recall what the announcers said during the game correctly (I haven't been able to verify that online yet). There could be other records broken today as well, I will try to post them when I find out about them down the road.

Speaking of the road, the Lions now travel to Green Bay next week for their final regular season game. It's quite likely that both teams will sit their starters long before half time so it remains to be seen if the Lions depth can win the first game at Lambeau Field since before Jason Hanson was drafted.

The primary goal of that game though will be (for both teams) to come out healthy.

Just noted another record on twitter, attendance at Lions game in 2011 set a record with 509,949 total people attending games. (Via the @DetroitLionsNFL)

There is one more record I would like to see the Lions break this season though, they have won four national championships but since the Super Bowl began they have never played in one. Time to break that record.

Merry Christmas to Lions fans everywhere!

Game 14: Lions at Oakland Raiders

2011-12-18T20:15:00.002-05:00

Megafantastic.

It's been awhile since the Lions had me literally on the edge of my seat at the end of a game. Today's 28-27 win over the Oakland Raiders was just such a game. I would like to thank Suh and his Suh sized thumb for catching a piece of that football while it was on it's way for what would've been an NFL record long field goal (and a win). What a fantastic play.

The Lions were down 14-27 well past the halfway mark of the 4th quarter when another fantastic player took the conservative gloves off and starting driving his team down the field. Stafford ended up 29 of 52 for 391 yards and 4 TD's. That puts him at 33 TD's so far on the year and THAT makes him the quarterback with the most TD's in a season ever for the Detroit Lions (topping the former record holder Scott Mitchell who's 1995 record of 32 is now in 2nd place). Plus there are still 2 more games to play... time to set that bar higher!

Matt Stafford also garnered enough yards to leap Kitna's 2007 yardage record putting him in 3rd place, behind only Kitna's 2006 and Mitchell's 1995 yardage records. My math tells me that Stafford needs only 64 yards to get into 2nd place and 194 yards to take over 1st place. Basically, this means that after next weekends game against the Chargers Matthew Stafford will hold both the yardage and touchdown records for one season for a Lions Quarterback (all time) and he is only 23 years of age. Fantastic!

Several of the receivers dropped passes in the final minutes of the game but eventually the true stars of the game (if not the team) started making the plays needed to score points. Megatron (Calvin Johnson) eventually took over all the clutch duties as he finishes the game with 9 receptions for 214 yards and 2 TD's. Most of those fantastic plays were in the final 5 minutes of the game. It's enough yards to rank 3rd most in Lions franchise history and it was the highest total since Richard Johnson had 248 in 1989. Megatron is only 1 TD behind the record best Wide Receiver in Lions history with the most TDs in a single season (Cloyce Box has 15 and the record he set back in 1952). While CJ may break the single season TD record for a Lions WR he is quite a ways behind the yardage record holder, Herman Moore, who set that bar in 1995 with 1686 yards (CJ is currently at 1335 and is now in 4th place behind Herman Moore, Brett Perriman and Germane Crowell).

Jason Hanson kicked all 4 extra points and didn't get a chance to kick any field goals, but he too set a mega-record when he became only the 6th player in NFL History with 2,000 career points. He is the first player to score 2,000 points with 1 franchise. He is also the only player on the Lions roster originally drafted by the Lions who has had a winning season before this year. The Lions are at 9-5, their first winning season since 1999, and the first winning season for guys like Backus, Raiola, and all the rest. Their first winning season in the NFL, ever. That's MEGA-Fantastic!

The team is also setting records, for example, the Lions are the first team in NFL history to come back and win 4 games when down 13(+) points in 1 season.

By the way, if there are any Lions you'd like to see go to the probowl the voting ends Monday Night (19th of December) at http://www.NFL.com/probowl

The Lions now have a 2 game lead over the other teams looking to make the playoffs with the wildcard designation... with only 2 games left they can clinch their spot with one more win. Due to some tiebreaker they have and some they do not they are not yet guaranteed to make the playoffs at 9-7, but they are very very close. If the season ended today they'd have to play their first playoff game in 13 years on the left coast against the San Fransisco 49ers, doesn't that bring back some other 1990ish like memories?

Be that as it may, the next game is in Detroit against the San Diego Chargers who just won a few minutes ago against the Ravens and who are notorious for winning in December, then again, the Lions last regular season game is against the Packers at Lambeau Field, so it's up to the fans to be loud ALL GAME LONG next weekend!!! I don't care what the score is or who did what wrong, the Chargers must be continually harassed by the Detroit Lions Fans all game long. It is CRITICAL!

Let's all give ourselves a Mega-Fantastic Christmas and help the Lions make the playoffs next Saturday!

Game 13 Minnesota Vikings @ Home

2011-12-11T20:38:00.002-05:00

Timely.

Unexpectedly, the Lions whooped on the Vikings 31 - 14 the first half of the game today, only to get whooped 3-14 the second half. Lions do win the game with a final score of 34-28 but it was a near thing. The Lions usually start slow and then pick it up in the 2nd half, it was very timely of the defense to help pad the lead in the first half because the second half wasn't good enough to win the game. The Vikings turnaround began when Ponder was benched for Webb. The Vikings kept attacking the Lions and would've won except for a forced fumble on the final play of the game... a very timely fumble.

All we'll hear about is how the refs missed the facemask penalty that would've voided the fumble and subsequent recovery by the Lions. Never mind all the other missed calls all game long, heck, all season long that hurt the Lions. It just happens that for a change the missed call would've helped the opponent and perhaps allowed them to win the game. You could call it inevitable that sooner or later, one game or another, in one season or another, a timely non-call would help the Lions win a much needed game. Well, most won't think that way but I do. Do I feel bad about it? No, not at all. It wasn't the only missed call of the game that altered the subsequent events for either team, just the most noticeable due to the timing.

The Lions are now 8-5 and in the wildcard hunt. If they win out they are in. If they lose one game they are likely still in due to owning some tie breakers. They could even make it in with only one more win but then would need a lot of help to make it. I'd prefer they not back into the playoffs but keep improving and get in all on their own. It's a very timely point in the season to get better.

Titus Young, he's getting better, managing to lead all the receivers with 87 yards and a TD today. Pettigrew also contributed with 57 yards and a TD. The defense started out the game with style, Avril getting sacks, Alphonso Smith getting interceptions. The Defense wore down as the game went on, especially chasing after Webb, but they just barely did enough to win the game. Matt Stafford? He did a pedestrian 20/29 for 227 yards and 2 TDs, but no interceptions.

It won't be long and I'll be able to post all the Lions records that Matt Stafford broke. He's advancing fast on "most TDs" and should earn "most yards" this season too if he can keep going. That's right, we are seeing a record breaking season by a Lions QB, despite all the miscues. He gets his play improved and he may own these records for decades.

Lions haven't been .500 or better since BM (Before Millen). That's a very long time and it kind of feels good to know that they can not have a losing season this year, but I'm hungry for more.

The Lions travel to the left coast next week to play the Raiders. Suh will be back and hopefully can control his hunger and channel it into great play. Some other injured Lions might be healthy enough to play as well. It's going to be a tough game but I like the matchup and expect another timely win.

Game 12: Lions at New Orlean Saints

2011-12-04T23:51:00.002-05:00

Doesn't matter.

I predicted the Lions would lose this game 24-31, I was pretty close, they lost it 17-31. It really doesn't matter that they lost, since I figured the Lions would be 7-5 at this point anyway (which they are) and in the hunt for the wildcard spot (which they are).

There were some things in this game that do matter though, not the least of which is that Stafford is healing up, he played without a glove for the first time in a month and managed 31 of 44 for 408 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. The INT was actually a ball stripped from the hands of the WR who had caught the pass, but that doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter that the Lions were flagged 11 times for 107 yards, what does matter is that nearly half of those were so questionable as to be on the verge of flagrant. It once again affected the mental state of the players who took their frustrations out on opposing players (and in one case the ref) three times which caused 3 of the 11 flags. Somehow the players (and their coaches) need to learn how to twist those emotions into playing harder, not making stupid penalties. If any player should've lost his cool it was Nate Burleson, but he managed to just keep working away eventually leading the team in passing yardage (93 yards total after penalties).

It doesn't matter that Hanson missed a couple of field goals. He goes through this whenever a new holder is on the field, and this makes the 4th holder in less then 4 months.

It doesn't matter that Suh wasn't in the game or that once again a few of the play calls were questionable gambles. The Lions are not yet as polished a team as the Saints. That could change though, fast. Last year the Packers weren't all that polished then right about this time of the year they went on a winning streak that they still haven't broke. It's not too late to turn this around, in fact, this would be the ideal time to do just that.

Time to start playing with a little more discipline, with a little more controlled tenacity, and with some of that "us against the world" teamwork.

All the other teams in the NFC wildcard playoff hunt also lost this weekend, so while it would've been nice to have put a game up on all of them, the Lions at least didn't lose any ground. In the end, this loss didn't matter, but, should they learn from it and improve as a team, it could matter quite a bit... for the good.

Game 11 Green Bay Packers @ Home

2011-11-24T20:17:00.002-05:00

Didn't help.

The now 7-4 Lions got whooped on by the now 11-0 Green Bay Packers by a score of 15-27 today during the first game of the Thanksgiving NFL football marathon. In preseason I had predicted the Lions would lose this game 24-31 and last night in my forum I altered my prediction to say the team that scores first would win 31-24. I guess you could say I was fairly close in these predictions but it sure didn't help the Lions playoff hopes by losing a game they failed to be even competitive in.

I suppose you could say the defenses were competitive for a large portion of the first half when the score was 0-0 until the Lions lost their composure. A lot will be said about one specific aspect of the game, that being the actions of Ndamukong Suh, but even before that occurred things weren't going well for the Lions. What Suh did didn't help, that is for sure, getting himself evicted from the game and allowing the Packers to score a TD instead of a field goal after the yardage and automatic first down were tacked on... but what Stafford and company was doing didn't help either.

Suh might think he as just trying to get up off the ground... or perhaps he thought he was trying to shake loose from being grasped by the leg (I can't tell if that was true in the one angle from the video I saw or not) but what it appears to most is that Suh smacked the players head into the ground multiple times and then stomped or kicked the arm of said player on his way away from the pile. The appearance of this act is what drew the flag, it's what got him evicted, it's what will get him fined, and it might get him games (as in more then one game) suspended without pay. This link will explain what I mean:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/Ndamukong-Suh-Detroit-Lions-unsportsmanlike-conduct-suspension-112411

Suh comments after the act (but before he has seen the film) make me believe he doesn't know what it looks like to everyone watching. He made a rather odd apology to his "true" fans, teammates and his coaches but nothing about the act itself which doesn't help his case any. I'm not sure what it is he thinks happened or did in fact happen, but take it from me, that won't matter now, it's all about the appearance of what happened so unless someone has a different camera angle or someone in that pile was mic'd, this is going to remain a black mark for a very long time on Suh's reputation and it's going to cost him and the team plenty, now and later.

Now prior to the eviction (and after as well) there were many questionable officiating calls which didn't help the attitude of the players (or this fan) at all. By my count nearly a third of the calls were suspect if not outright wrong. That kind of repeated abuse of power will get most any player upset. It's hard to win if you are upset. It's hard to keep your composure if you're upset. I would've loved to speak at length about each penalty but for the first time in ages I failed to record the game so I can't play it back.

Aside from Suh missing over half the game, the yardage and penalty his flag generated, the poor attitude of the players in general for questionable calls, and the yardage those penalties either gave or killed, there were many other parts of this game that didn't help.

It didn't help that Kevin Smith was injured with what looks like a high ankle sprain and was lost for a lot of the game (and probably the next 3 or 4 games as well).

It didn't help that some of the receivers continue to drop the ball at critical times.

It didn't help to have 3 interceptions regardless of who's fault it was.

It didn't help that Stafford mostly threw short passes and for the third week doesn't appear to be fully devoted to the game being played. Has he lost faith in the play calling? His teammates? The officiating? The fans? The work he has to do now that he's not got a separated shoulder? I don't know what it is, but for whatever reason he just doesn't seem to be as engaged or competitive as he should appear. This of course could just be me... until I have more information I'll leave it at that.

Speaking of facts, let's get back to that... Stafford connected on 32 of his 45 passes for 1 TD, 1 two point conversion, and 3 interceptions. He was credited with 276 yards 81 of which went to Maurice Morris the highest receiver of the day by far (all the check downs didn't help the score in my opinion).

Jason Hanson missed a 47 yard field goal but I'm giving him some slack as he's on his 3rd holder in less then 2.5 weeks. The punting game didn't help with field position though, it sure would be nice to get that part of the game fixed.

There were so many injuries to the defensive backs that Rashied Davis WR played DB for a large portion of the game. That didn't help with the score either, though I'm glad he was able to contribute as much as he did. Perhaps it would be smart to have more then 4 CBs active when you play the best O in the league, but that's just me.

The Lions were 2 for 2 in the redzone, it just didn't help that they only visited the redzone twice. I'm not sure how the coaching staff is going to fix this, but they face the Packers again in week 17 at Lambeau Field and if they are able to get themselves 3 more wins before then, they may have a chance at the playoffs (and may end up facing the Packers a third time) so "it" has to be fixed, whatever "it" is.

I would start making these repairs by fixing the things that didn't help this game.

ps. Coaches, Players, anyone else involved, it's a lot easier to win if you are having fun. Figure that small part out and it'll go a long ways too.

Game 10 Carolina Panthers @ Home

2011-11-20T22:40:00.002-05:00

Record breaking.

The now 7-3 Detroit Lions came from behind to defeat the Carolina Panthers 49-35. Trailing at one point by 17 points early in the game and with a half time score of just 14-27, the Lions managed to come back for the third time this year from 3 scores down to win the game. That kind of come back hasn't happened in a single season in modern NFL history (since there began to be superbowls for example).

Matthew Stafford threw for 335 yards with 5 TDs and 2 INTs completing 28 of 36 throws... and what is truly remarkable, not one of those TD passes was to Calvin Johnson! The 5 TDs went to 5 players though... Burleson, Titus Young, Pettigrew, Scheffler and (drum roll please) Kevin Smith RB. Yes, that Kevin Smith. To go along with his 61 yards receiving, Kevin Smith had 140 yards rushing with two more TDs on only 16 attempts. I think the Lions have found (or re-found if that's a word) their running back.

The Lions generated 495 yards of total offense and allowed the Panthers 409 yards of total offense. This was a good new fashioned shoot out and once the Lions stopped turning the ball over they were able to pound away at the scoreboard and wake the crowd up big time. Hopefully the Lions can skip the slow start next game since it's in only 4 days and against the Green Bay Packers.

Stafford is very quickly closing in on all the Lions passing records. It won't be long until he holds them all, even though this is his only 3rd year in the league (with less then 2 years worth of actual playing time).

I'm looking forward to the nationally televised Thanksgiving Day game this year... there's a chance for the Lions to make another name for themselves by being the team to beat the undefeated Green Bay Packers. They will need to play like they did the 2nd half of this game and not at all like they did last week or in the first quarter this week, but to a man they each know they can do it... they just need to take a deep breath and execute the plays.

If they continue to do that, they will break all kinds of records.

Game 9: Lions at Chicago Bears

2011-11-13T22:36:00.002-05:00

Fix it.

The Lions lose this game before my local television station can get away from the Atlanta-New Orleans game that went into overtime. The final score 13-37 (the Lions game, not the Falcons/Saints game which I didn't want to keep watching but had no choice in the matter). The Lions need to figure out what is wrong and fix it.

You wouldn't think the Lions would be the losing team if all I told you about was Cutler. He managed a dismal 9 completions for 123 yards and no touchdowns. No, it wasn't the run game that killed them; Forte had only 64 yards and 1 TD. Obviously the wide receivers also had no touchdowns. So how did the Lions lose? By allowing their new found punter to kick to Hester and by playing their injured QB who threw not one but two pick sixes.

What was wrong with Stafford you ask? All game long everyone questioned why he needed to wear gloves when it wasn't raining, and wasn't cold. I was pretty sure something was up and sure enough, after the game, it was revealed, here's the link:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/13/stafford-played-with-broken-finger/

I think I can safely blame the coaches for playing their QB with the broken finger instead of one of their other QBs who have 10 good digits. I might even find blame for the coaching in having their fresh-off-the-street punter kick to Hester (who also got a TD today). I can't blame the coaches for allowing my local tv channel for not switching to the Lions game when it started, nor for the two fumbles that occurred during that time when I wasn't able to watch the game. But I'm sure if I re-watched the game I could find many more times to blame the coaches for something.

The 6-3 Lions aren't going to be going to the playoffs if they don't fix a few things. The list is short, yet covers a broad spectrum of "team".

Coaching. Fix it.
Quarterback. Fix it.
Kicking/Punting. Fix it.

Can't do much about the weather and since that affects both sides equally I don't even care. Can't do much about the officiating either, which is much worse then the ever changing weather. But the decisions being made by the coaching staff can be improved. The (by appearances) nonchalant acting quarterback (3 weeks now it seems like) can have a fire lit under his back side and his focus improved. I'm also a little tired with the kicking (most should be in the back of the end zone) and by the punting (why did we get rid of Harris again?). Fix it. All of it.

Get these few (but big) things fixed, then you can begin to work on the little things again. You got 7 weeks to win at least 4 games and none of those games will be a cakewalk. The Bears meanwhile, if you look at their schedule, is pretty much the opposite. Time to focus... every snap, every game, make them all count.

Starting with next weeks game and the one that is only 4 days after that on Thanksgiving day. Speaking of that, being that there are 2 games in the next 11 days, wouldn't it have been wise to sit the QB with the broken finger and... oh never mind, already said it. Once again, coaching, fix it.

Game 8: Lions at Denver Broncos

2011-10-30T18:48:00.002-05:00

What a difference

What a difference a week makes. The Lions took Denver to task (in Denver no less) and won the game decisively 45-10 bringing their record before the bye week to 6-2. For me, I'm just glad it's over, if I had a quarter for every time I heard the words "Tim Tebow" I'd be able to make a house payment.

Matthew Stafford was 21/30 for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. He's still limping (his ankle injury isn't healed up) and it appeared he hurt his hand during the latter part of the game but that didn't stop him from looking much better then the previous couple games. He was sacked twice and hit a number of times more so I'd bet he's looking forward to the time off for the bye week to heal up. Shame the bye week probably won't fix the offensive line which played a little better (or they simply faced a worse defense) then recently.

Speaking of defenses, the Lions defense played much better, sacking TT seven times (I ain't going to type his name no more). He apparently didn't get the memo, or his OC didn't, that the way to beat the lions is to get rid of the ball quick.

While I would love to attribute the win to the Lions playing better, it was more due to the inept Denver O and D. Had Denver played better, the Lions probably still would've won, for they are the more talented team, but it wouldn't have been so lopsided.

Regardless, a win is a win, they all add up the same, and having a win before the bye week makes for a better situation the losing would have.

On special teams, it should be noted that the next Jason Hanson field goal for 50 yards or more will be his 50th such field goal. His one and only field goal today for 50 yards was number 49.

Up after the bye week is the Chicago Bears and a chance for the Lions to get another win adding to their tie breaking situation (which may become very very important at the end of the season). Hopefully the Lions 6 game win streak for away games will continue on. I think the Lions will win it, I just hope the injury situation improves rather then the opposite.

There is one thing that I recalled (and was tweeted repeatedly by others)... the last time the Lions whipped the Broncos to go 6-2 it was 2007 with a score of 44-7, they then went 1-7 the rest of that year then came the 0-16 2008 season. What a difference 4 years make. No one expects anything like 2007 to happen now. Of course, the head coach and offensive coordinator in 2007 for the Lions are now the defensive coordinator and the offensive coordinator in Chicago. Yep, what a difference.

Game 7 Atlanta Falcons @ Home

2011-10-23T20:10:00.003-05:00

No Swag

Seven weeks into the 2011 NFL season the Lions find themselves at 5-2 after losing to the Atlanta Falcons 16-23. Once again (for the second home game in a row) the Lions offense appeared lost, bewildered, lacking swag of any kind. The bad news is that it is spreading. The defense appeared to be losing it as well. Oh, and the fans... the Falcons with the exception of a couple plays had it very easy today... no help, no swag.

Stafford was a meager 15 of 32 for 183 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Pedestrian. CJ had 115 yards and a touchdown, but the #2 WR Burleson had 1 catch for 1 yard and nothing for Titus Young but missed opportunities. Maurice Morris was the only RB to have any completions with a mere 2 catches for 13 yards. TEs Pettigrew, Heller, and Scheffler combined for 7 completions and 54 yards to complete the anemic passing attack. The run game totaled 104 yards which is actually an improvement but it didn't help in the slightest. Stafford had no swag and I've all but lost hope that the OLine can be anything more then mediocre this season.

The defense seems to be losing ground as well. The DLine didn't pressure as often, the new found ways of allowing big plays to happen is getting old, and probably most importantly, nothing happens when the defense does get a turnover. The momentum just dies.

I could go into how disappointing the special teams play is but that was obvious. Making a joke about hearing a pin drop during at least 2 quarters of play at Ford Field also doesn't seem right.

I guess when things aren't going right everyone loses their swag.

Maybe this upcoming away game against the Denver Bronco's is just what is needed... then again, if the Lions lose to Tim Tebow the chances of finding any swag during the rest of 2011 is very much in doubt. The coaching staff and the players simply can not allow that to happen. Someone needs to figure out what is wrong and right it, and I think now would be a very good time for that to happen.

Game 6 San Francisco 49ers @ Home

2011-10-16T21:18:00.002-05:00

Underwhelming

The Detroit Lions lose to the San Fransisco 49ers on their home turf with the final score being 19-25. Both teams are now 5-1. Both teams played hard, very hard, and I'm sure the left coast press will state how overwhelming Gore and the 49ers were but I saw the opposite... that being how underwhelming the Lions played.

At first glance the stats show one thing but having watched the game my eyes saw another. I'd almost think the entire team had their gatorade spiked with sleeping pills during half time... or perhaps they were just dehydrated... either way, Matthew Stafford had a very underwhelming day never really finding his "groove" or even some semblance of consistent accuracy while the defense lost about as much enthusiasm to play as the fans did to make noise. Even the play calling was "sleepy" or perhaps "inadequate" would be a better word. I even wondered a couple times whether both Linehan and Stafford weren't suffering from concussions (or perhaps having sympathy symptoms for Scheffler and Durant). The longer the game wore on, the worse the players got... Backus became old and slow, Stafford looked lost or in the wrong time zone, the receivers started playing less sharp, actually, most everyone on the team played less sharp, not to be outdone the officiating got worse, heck by the end of the game Schwartz forgot he was a head coach on television and lost his cool... and I don't really know the reason for any of it. Monday Night Football hangover perhaps? Sounds too easy.

The winning teams' quarterback had a whopping 17 completions for 145 yards 1 TD and 1 INT. The losing teams' quarterback had 28 completions for 298 yards 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Yet Stafford never really strung more then a couple of passes in a row together with any kind of accuracy. Both teams converted only two 3rd downs.

The safety the 49ers defense got was simply a bad play by Stafford and bad play calling by Linehan, but the 49ers defense got the points whereas the Lions defense got none all game, although the Lions defense did create a fumble on the first 49ers offensive play of the game and an interception later on.

The winning team had 15 penalties for 120 yards, the losing team had 6 penalties for 54 yards.

Both teams had 2 TDs but the Lions went for 2 points at the beginning of the 4th quarter and failed to convert. Jason Hanson also missed a 52 yard field goal making his other two while the 49ers made all 3 of theirs.

The Lions time of possession was just over half the game at 30 minutes 21 seconds.

The officiating was questionable on and off all game long but unless the Lions tanked the game due to being upset at the officiating that isn't why they lost.

No, the reason the Lions lost was due to the next two sentences:

1. Stafford was sacked 5 times (and hurried many more) while Smith was sacked only twice.

2. Lions had 66 yards Rushing, the 49ers had 203.

The Lions defense failed to stop the run, being gored by Gore on two huge plays, and they failed to sack Alex Smith. That is what lost the game.

The Lions offense failed to compensate for the underwhelming defensive play by being, well, average. The offensive line was below average as was the quarterback while the rest of the team was at or above average for the most part.

I had expected more from the offense and a lot more from the defense.

Much was made after the game about the pushing match between the head coaches (apparently Harbaugh said something profane and shoved Schwartz) but while newsworthy to others it meant nothing to me and still doesn't.

What concerns me is the inability to stop the run game by the defense, the inability by the offensive line to protect Stafford, the inability to execute the basic plays efficiently when the officiating is suspect, and the team being out coached by the 49ers.

I blame this loss on coaching and age.

Age: I'm just now starting to wonder if Jeff Backus' age isn't catching up with him, he really didn't have the stamina to play the whole game (I think you'll see that his play in the 4th quarter was simply terrible) while at the same time the defensive tackles are relatively young and failed to play the run on the way to the quarterback a few key times.

Coaching: Reinforce the run defense when struggling during the game. Hydrate your players if they are getting sluggish. Settle down your players when the officiating is suspect. Get short yardage fast when backed up into your own endzone. Save the 2 pointers for the last half of the 4th quarter. And finally, FOCUS.

Hydrate, Communicate, and then Celebrate but never lose focus.

When the coaching is underwhelming the players play that way.

Game 5 Chicago Bears @ Home

2011-10-10T23:49:00.002-05:00

Good days.

The Detroit Lions beat the Chicago Bears 24-13 on Monday Night Football to remain undefeated with a 5 and 0 record.

You will probably need to read the above sentence over and over again for it to really sink in. These are good days people. Sure there is room for improvement (individual play wise) but just stop and go read that sentence again. The last time the Lions started 5-0 it was 1956, as in the good OLD days. The good old days I heard about but wasn't alive for. These are the good NEW days. When the Lions can play away, home, national tv, three scores down or what-have-you, and win. Quit worrying about the game ending collapses that have so ruined our minds and enjoy this. We fans are embarking on a football thrill ride and there are no lines to wait in or a curfew. Scary isn't it.

Records were broken tonight. Some I'm sure of, some I haven't researched but believe accurate. Ford Field attendance of 67,861 has to be a record. Jahvid Best's 88 yard run for a TD was something that, believe it or not, Barry Sanders didn't do. I'm not sure when the Lions last had a WR with 9 TDs in 5 games or when they had a QB with a season rating exceeding 100 (after 5 weeks) but they too could be records. And the fans helped with a record too... the most penalties in an NFL game with 26... which included many false starts by the Bears.

All this fun (or damage if you prefer) was done in less then 21 minutes TOP (Time of Possession). That's right, the Bears had the ball nearly twice as much as the Lions in this game.

You could complain about the penalties the Lions had, or how Stafford missed a few open receivers (some he saw and threw towards, others he missed seeing completely), you could complain about all kinds of things if you wanted to... and be accurate... and be wrong, because now is not the time to complain. Now is the time to enjoy knowing the team has room to get better. They are no where near playing a perfect game and can get even better! Will that be the 49ers game? The Thanksgiving day game? When will they put in that perfect game? Time to get your mind geared that way instead of waiting, holding your breath, hoping that the Lions don't "blow it".

I know that some will not go "all in" just yet. That's okay, I'm sure not everyone was happy in the 50's either, but since most of us were raised knowing the 50's was the Lions good old days, it might be worth getting a little enjoyment out of things right now if you can. Many us enjoyed watching Barry Sanders play in the 90's even in the years the Lions had a losing record, this is more then that (sorry Barry). This is a team playing well. Coaching, players, fans all contributing, heck even Barry Sanders was on hand to flip the coin and introduce the game. A mixture of the two previous "good old days" and now the new.

The Lions went 6-0 back in 1956, their sixth victim being the 49ers, who they just happen to play next week. Yep.. Good days... the old ones AND the new ones.

Enjoy it.

Game 4 Lions at Dallas Cowboys

2011-10-02T19:25:00.002-05:00

More then one.

The Lions played two football games Sunday against Dallas. In the first half they lost 3-20 quite decisively. In the second half the Lions fought for all they were worth and won 31-10, making the final score of the game a Lions victory of 34-30.

The Lions won their second away game in a row today, and won all 3 away games so far this season. Those 3 wins along with the home win a couple of weeks ago puts the Lions tied for 1st place in the NFL at 4-0 along with the Green Bay Packers. It's not unusual to have more then one undefeated team after only 4 weeks of NFL football, but it would have to figure that the Lions best seasonal start since 1980 is a tie with a fellow NFC North team.

The Lions were really getting their butts handed to them in the first half. Stafford was trying way too hard and struggled mightily, as did the OLine, the WRs, basically everyone on the team really. Lucky for them (and us fans) there is more then one half to the game. It was the Lions defense who got the ball rolling so to speak, with two consecutive (as in back-to-back, or more then one) Pick 6s. A pick six being an interception for a touchdown. Those plays took the wind out of the crowd and brought the Lions their much needed kick in the backside. Dallas and their star TE Witten did try to bring the game momentum back to their side, but the Lions were able to crack down just enough to win the day. It is a very good thing that the Lions have more then one playmaker on their team, no one person took control of it, they worked together and got it done.

Stafford didn't crack 50% completions with a 21/43 record, 240 yards, 2 TDs and 1 Int. No one topped 50 yards rushing, no one topped 100 yards receiving. Even the time of possession was subpar at 23:21. But that's not the end of it. Calvin Johnson did get more then one TD again today, bringing his total to 8 TDs in 4 games. His 2 TDs a game means he's on pace for an amazing 32 TD season. Jason Hanson still hasn't missed a field goal or extra point. The coaching staff does not curl up and die during half time but makes functional adjustments that the players follow, the players definitely are imitating the coaching in not giving up.

The Lions are 4-0, I'm 3-1 in my prediction of the Lions season so far, and both records are better then any of my fantasy football teams. I still have time to turn my FFL teams around, after all, if the Lions can come from behind more then once down 3 scores, so can I.

The next game for the Lions is a Monday night game. It's a home game. It's against last year's NFCN division winners. A team that won their first game last year as they defined the Calvin Johnson rule. It's the Bears... coached by a couple of recent former Lions coaches, including the former 0-16 Lions head coach. Does anyone think the Lions won't be playing this one to win?

Hopefully, the Lions won't be trying "too hard" and blow it. Then again, if they do start that way, no matter how far behind they get in the first half, there is more then one half and the Bears won't be safe until the final second expires.

There is even a chance Nick Fairley will get his first plays in the NFL this game. More then one first round defensive tackle on the field for the same team the same night... if this game is as good as I think it will be, perhaps the Lions will get more then one Monday Night game next year.

Game 3 Lions at Minnesota Vikings

2011-09-25T15:39:00.002-05:00

Unexpected.

The Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings in the twin cities in overtime 26-23. The Lions are now 3-0 on the year, and have 11 straight wins going back to last year (counting preseason). The last time the Lions won in Minnesota it was 1997. The last time the Lions were 3-0 to start the season it was 1980. 76% of the teams who start 3-0 make the playoffs. Even with all those "records" the Lions were favored to win this game (first time since 1991 the Lions were favored to win in Minnesota). The thing is, they were behind 0-20 at half time. Unexpectedly, they fought back and won it in overtime thanks to Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and of course, Jason Hanson.

There were a number of other unexpected items of note in this game as well. 20 net yards rushing on 19 attempts by the Lions for example. 4 receptions for 51 yards by Titus Young (and 4th best on the team today). 11 receptions and 112 yards by Pettigrew to lead the team. No INTs by McNabb OR Stafford. Just to name a few.

Some things weren't so unexpected. 2 TDs and 108 yards on 7 receptions by Calvin Johnson. Jason Hanson making a 50 yard field goal plus making 3 others, including the game winner. The refs making some questionable calls. Jeff Backus playing poorly against J. Allen when not 100% healthy (but he won't sit it out, no sir).

One of the best new things to expect of the Lions these days is the half time adjustments. For years there weren't any, now there are. They are not only making half time adjustments, but those adjustments are actually working. I applaud the coaching staff for this, big time.

I also congratulate Linehan and Gunther Cunningham for beating their previous teams in back to back weeks.

Next week the Lions head to Dallas to play the Cowboys. I'd hate to feel Romo's ribs after Suh and company get done with him. It will be a challenge for the Lions Linebackers though, playing against Witten, who always plays the Lions tough. Will the Lions be favored for that game? Will they win back to back road games? Can they find a way to win once again? It will likely be another tough match but I do think the Lions could take it.

Let's just say, it wouldn't be unexpected.

Game 2 Kansas City Chiefs @ Home

2011-09-18T20:18:00.002-05:00

Impressive.

The 2-0 Lions establish that they will play tough on their home field this year by pounding the Chiefs 48-3; breaking their own point spread record set with a 44-0 win over the expansion Jacksonville Jaguars in 1995.

The starters didn't even play half the 4th quarter and one of the touchdowns was scored by Kieland Williams, the number 4 RB on their depth chart. Stafford threw for 294 yards, 4 TDs and had one INT. Burleson led the WRs with 93 yards followed by the rookie, Titus Young, with 89. CJ had only 3 completions for 29 yards, but two of them were TDs. Jahvid Best also had 2 TDs, one rushing and one receiving with 123 all purpose yards. The Lions defense had 6 turnovers on the Chiefs to the Lions giving up 1.

It's also believed that Roary (the Lions mascot) took out Jamaal Charles for the season (ACL) but an MRI will be needed Monday to determine if he is indeed lost for the season. Okay, so Roary didn't actually cause the injury, it occurred as Charles was shoved out of bounds in the middle of the first quarter by a Lions defender, causing Jamaal to fall into Roary, but I'm not sure if that cushioned his fall all that much. The injury appeared to occur on his first step towards the sideline long before the "collision". Still, Roary will make the highlight film for his role.

Next week the Lions play the Minnesota Vikings who lost today to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-24, the team the Lions beat last week. I'm 2-0 in my preseason Lions prediction so far, let's hope I'm wrong about next week's outcome.

Today's 48 points by the Lions were the most by any team this week (barring the outcome of the Sunday night and Monday night games).

It wasn't a perfect game, the Lions still have things to work on, but it was an impressive performance none-the-less.

Game 1 Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2011-09-11T20:43:00.002-05:00

Oh so close.

The Lions win their first game of the season, a road game no less, with a score of 27-20, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the win the Lions don't have to worry about a repeat of 2008 (the last time the Lions won all 4 preseason games they went 0-16 in the regular season). This win makes it the 9th game in a row the Lions have won (4 to end last season, all 4 preseason this year, and then today's game). Of course the score makes it look like it was a close game... but was it?

No, it wasn't. At the end of the first quarter the Lions were losing 6-10, but that's only because of special teams and Tampa's defense. There was exactly 4 yards of offense by Tampa in the first quarter. That's total offense. Had Talib not intercepted Stafford's intended throw to Heller the Lions would've appeared to dominate on the scoreboard as much as they did in the stats... until the Lions went into prevent.

Did I ever mention how much I hate the prevent defense?

It was while being in prevent that the Bucs offense scored their first TD, with less then 2 minutes to go in the game. It was also in prevent that the Bucs could've tied it up and took the game to overtime. Luckily, that did not happen.

Stafford threw for 305 yards, 3 TDs, 1 Int and was 24 of 33. http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011091106/2011/REG1/lions@buccaneers#menu=highlights&tab=recap

Those kinds of numbers will keep the team in any game. If the defense can keep playing like they did in the first 3 quarters of the Tampa game, the team will win most of those games... depending on how often they go to prevent.

Oh do I hate prevent. I understand you are draining the clock, but all too often it allows an opposing team to get back into the game. Anyway... it worked, this time.

So why did I start this blog entry with the words "oh so close"?

Because, I predicted the Lions would win this game, 27 to 21. One point off. Oh so close.

Detroit Lions 2011 Win/Loss Prediction

2011-09-07T17:23:00.003-05:00

The 2011 season is almost upon us, time to look at the Lions schedule and try in advance to determine what the Detroit Lions win/loss situation is like (and of course, to get it utterly wrong, but hey, got to try right?).

Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions allowed Green Bay into the playoffs last year by beating the Bucs, had they lost last year, the Super Bowl champion Packers would've never made the playoffs... and Tampa would have. They are probably looking for some pay back. Unfortunately for them, the Lions are itching to hit someone in the mouth, and the Bucs get to be first up. Lions win 27-21.

Week 2 at home versus the Kansas City Chiefs. The first home game. The Lions and the fans are pumped. The defensive line can win (or lose) this game for the Lions... I think they have it in them to control the game just enough. Lions win 17-14.

Week 3 at the Minnesota Vikings. McNabb is starting to get comfortable and the Lions seem to have troubles winning in the twin cities... the refs help and the slightly overconfident Lions do a belly flop. Lions lose 23-28.

Week 4 at the Dallas Cowboys. The reeling Lions go on the road again to face the still ailing Cowboys. Nothing like a road win to get your confidence back. Lions win 34-20.

Week 5 at home versus the Chicago Bears. On one side you have the 2010 division champs with 2 previous Lions coaches and on the other you have the 3-1 Lions playing at home. Fans can make a difference. Lions win and look good doing it, 27-10.

Week 6 at home versus the San Francisco 49ers. Can the 4-1 Lions take care of their home turf against the 49ers? Yeah, I know, stupid question. Lions win 37-17.

Week 7 at home (again) versus the Atlanta Falcons. Time for another wakeup call. Hard to defend your home turf with that much fire power on the other side. Lions lose 17-28.

Week 8 at the Denver Broncos. The 5-2 Lions go a mile high to catch a buzz. Lions win in another shoot out 28-21.

Week 9 a much needed bye week to heal up.

Week 10 at the Chicago Bears. While the 6-2 Lions are riding confidence the Bears are still trying to figure out why things aren't going better... perhaps it's the coaching? Lions win this one despite the refs 17-14.

Week 11 at home versus the Carolina Panthers. It's the Panthers on the Lions turf... they never stood a chance. Lions win 34-17.

Week 12 at home versus the Green Bay Packers. Sometimes Rodgers just gets hot. Lions lose this one in a dog fight 24-31.

Week 13 at the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is just getting warmed up and their defense is really helping them this year. Lions lose 31-24.

Week 14 at home versus the Minnesota Vikings. The 8-4 Lions need to win to have a chance at the playoffs. Luckily, the Vikings are willing to help with turnovers. Lions win 26-17.

Week 15 at the Oakland Raiders. Both teams need to win this one, but a healthier Lions team and a few great special teams plays help a lot. Lions win 28-14.

Week 16 at home versus the San Diego Chargers. Rivers to Gates takes the show. lions lose 21-14.

Week 17 at the Green Bay Packers. The Packers sit a lot of their players, but man, it's COLD outside... Lions shiver all the way home with a score of 10-13.

The Lions take 2nd in the division with an 10-6 record. Is it enough for a wildcard spot? The late night game will determine that, it's no longer in the Lions hands.

3 weeks ago, I set my estimated depth chart, got 6 wrong

2011-09-03T21:02:00.004-05:00

No, the roster isn't done yet. But this is the day I see how my estimated depth chart that I set 3 weeks ago (tomorrow) looks compared to actual.... and this year I was off by 6. (My best is 5).

The obvious one: 3 weeks ago I didn't see Donahue beating out Harris for the punting job... I did see it a week ago but that doesn't count.

Instead of keeping Nathan Vasher they kept Aaron Berry. I kept tossing Aaron into and out of the estimates as I figured maybe they'd be tired of him being always injured and cut him... guess not.

At backup guard and center I had Niswanger and Thomas, they cut them and kept Gandy and Morris. 3 weeks ago I went with reputation... as of yesterday (and even still right now) I don't really see any decent backup guards or centers on the team (or cut from the team). I do not think they are done with this position yet.

They cut Jerome Felton. Saw this one coming a week or two ago when TE Heller was getting reps at FB but that hadn't happened 3 weeks ago when I set my estimated roster. They kept an extra RB in Jerome Harrison.

That's 5.

I really thought they might keep 6 WRs to start the season but Titus Young finally healed up and played... I knew there were a number of maybe's (they were in italics in my estimated depth chart). One of those italicized that I had put down as cut simply due to the numbers was Fluellen... that was the player they kept over WR Derrick Williams.

Final count. 25 O, 25 D, 3 special teams

If they clear waivers, the practice squad will likely have some names on it like LB Cobrani Mixon, WR Nate Hughes, LB Caleb Campbell, TE Joe Jon Finley, QB Zac Robinson, FB Matt Clapp, DT Rob Calloway, S Paul Pratt, S Ricardo Silva and since he already cleared waivers, WR Demario Ballard (assuming all of them qualify to actually be on a practice squad).

That's 10, but they can only sign 8, so at least 2 don't make the practice squad either.

Noon Sunday is when players can be signed to the practice squad, but if we know who the Lions signed by 8pm I'd be surprised... used to be you'd have to wait until the next day so we shall see.

My estimated depth chart every year is at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html in case you didn't catch that in my previous blog entry.

Time to start working on my cap chart and then finish my estimated win/loss prediction for the Lions.

Preseason Game 4 Lions at Buffalo Bills

2011-09-02T01:08:00.002-05:00

Can't wait for the regular season to start.

Unfortunately for 27 current players on the Lions roster, the good feeling ends very soon. Some of them will make the practice squad, a couple will find work on another football team, but the rest are done with NFL football as of now. It's too bad the new CBA didn't include a larger roster limit and an expanded practice squad.

That said, the team is actually shaping up pretty well. There are a number of positions up for grabs and at least 3 times that number of players vying for them. As I watched the 4th preseason game a few things jumped out at me that make me believe I'm not going to beat my final roster prediction record (that I made after preseason game 1, as I've done for years).

I do believe Ryan Donahue has won the punter job over Nick Harris. Matt Clapp has apparently won the fullback job since Jerome Felton has already been cut and I must say, he did pretty well in that 4 minute drill at the end of the game (even if it was against their 4s). I'm not too confident in my choices for backup guard and center and there are some other positions that are highly contested.

Some of those decisions won't be based on this one game, or on all the preseason games, but on the hours and hours of preseason practice and classroom study. So there is still a chance my initial impressions will be right... I'm just not very confident about them right now.

As for the game itself, here are some notes and comments on them....

I like that Stafford and most of the 1s played one series only in this game. I love that they all sat down without injury (as did most of the team in this game I do believe).

Shaun Merriman is good.

Lions O and D playing with confidence, wonder how they’ll respond to negativity... I don't think they'll just fall apart like they did in the 2000's.

Jerome Harrison appears to be learning about the O (finally).

Titus Young needs to learn the proper acting methods after being held (real or not), draw a flag man (he appeared to be interfered with).

Maurice Stovall is making the team (said that many times before), I'm less positive about Rashied Davis though. We shall see.

Wow, 3.5 minutes to go in 1st quarter and we're already seeing Stanton (and the other 3rd stringers). Nice.

I really like the Lions QB depth.

That’s a blow to the head? Wow.

Cameraman needs to work on his ball following skills.

Nice shake-n-bake by Jerome Harrison.

Hughes is like, medium rare… just not quite done, close, but not done enough yet.

Aaron Brown outplayed Jerome Harrison previously, but not this game.

That return by Hughes (fumbled) is the final nail I should think, at least as a return man anyway.

Willie Young showing his stuff… nice component of the team... great depth on the DLine.

Hughes protects that punt return very well, guess he can learn from his mistakes.

Pratt and Silva are almost ready, like Hughes. Years past, these three would automatically make the team… now, not so sure.

Fransisco made a great play defending that pass on 4th down.

QB Robinson starts with 10 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter.

Tim Toone, Caleb Campbell, JJ Finley, … guys one step behind Hughes, Pratt, Ian Johnson, Mixon and Silva. The former are probably goners, so are the latter, but they are making it interesting... and Silva might make the team while Alphonso Smith is unable to practice (if he qualifies for PUP which I think he does). But if he goes on PUP he can't come off of it until after week 6.

Haven’t seen the Lions players having fun like this in a long long long time.

D Williams hesitates, like he’s waiting to be hit… instead of going full speed ahead.

Clapp has more carries in this one game then Felton in a year I think.

If 1st string OL could block holes like those 4th stringers wow.

Great TACKLE by JASON HANSON!

Another nice pop by Fransisco, and then another back to back. Where's this guy been hiding out at?

Clapp loses the bandaid on his nose again, blood everywhere… but he’s getting those hard yards.

Nice tackle Caleb Campbell… though it may be your last as a Lion (sorry bud) unless the team keeps you over Hogue (numbers game now).

Lions win 16-6… and all 4 preseason games (gulp).

Well, I'm not sure who the final 53 players will be (or 54 if one goes on PUP) but I do know that not only are we fans ready for regular season, so are the Lions themselves. Since there was no OTAs, no nothing for 5 months this off season, I'm really impressed. All aspects of this team are ready to play and ready to win.

Next weeks' blog entry, my Lions win/loss prediction. Don't forget to enter yours in the win/loss prediction contest at http://www.theNetRat.com/contests.html.

Inconceivable!

2011-08-29T21:54:00.003-05:00

Tom "Killer" Kowalski

I, ah, have written and re-written this first line more times then I can count. Nothing adequately describes what I want to say. My cyber-buddy Tom "Killer" Kowalski has passed away at the ripe old age of 51 (a mere 3 years my senior). Killer was more then just a cyber-buddy however, I have in fact met him, multiple times. I have read him pretty much daily for nearly 13 years. I have emailed him, twittered to or about him, managed to get him to follow me on twitter, conversed in forums and in chats, even managed to interrupt his rush to get a story out a time or two while attending Lions practices. While I can't say we exchanged Christmas gifts or anything, I can say we knew each other "professionally" and to some extent, personally.

His favorite movie is the Princess Bride. I have found myself watching it multiple times because of that. I have a bookmark, just in case it's needed in a forum or a chat (or an email) ... http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093779/quotes

If you know twitter you know his @ sign. If you never have been to twitter, try this link http://twitter.com/#!/TomKowalski36 and just read a bit of what you can see on a persons twitter wall.

A new twitter account was created today, just to allow people to post up to 140 characters about the man (that's the maximum characters you can tweet in one tweet) http://twitter.com/#!/RIPTomKowalski

MLive has a large number of tributes and blogs listed with various obits and goodbyes... http://www.mlive.com/lions/

None of it seems to be quite enough, like my first line of this blog post I am utterly failing to come up with what is needed.

Perhaps this is why a moment of silence is often best... or perhaps I just need time... like Miracle Max says "You rush a miracle man, you get rotten miracles."

RIP Killer... and if you happen to get the ear of the big guy, well, first and foremost, don't tick him off and second, put in a good word for the Lions (hey, it can't hurt) and maybe skip the big women joke.

Well, in the immortal words of the man himself... Fellas, guess what time it is...

Preseason Game 3 Lions vs New England Patriots at Home

2011-08-27T22:15:00.006-05:00

Dominated.

Once again the Detroit Lions and the New England Patriots meet. Once again one team dominates the other. This time in preseason. Except this time, it's the Lions doing the dominating. But it's not just any preseason game, it's the 3rd preseason game, when teams typically give it a trial run for the regular season. Having said that, it is still a preseason game.

The Lions get the ball first. They are playing on offense without Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris, and Mike Bell all at running back… just Aaron Brown, Jerome Harrison and Ian Johnson are suited up to play (need to include Stefan Logan now as well, since he's no longer being considered at wide receiver but rather at running back, which is where I put him 2 weeks ago when I worked up my estimated depth chart).

Now for some notes on the game itself:

The Lions run the No Huddle, drive down the field, with Aaron Brown utilized the most the same as they did Jahvid Best in game 2. Burleson taps his toes in-bounds on terrific catches, same as he did in game 2, but misses the TD catch and the Lions settle for a field goal. It should be noted that the Patriots were missing nearly half their defensive starters though.

The Lions defense makes short work of the Pats O… impressive. (It should be noted the Patriots were playing with most if not all their starting offense).

The Lions get the ball back and that was perhaps the best screen pass (with a fake reverse) that I have ever saw. Several plays later it's TD Burleson, on a rope from Stafford.

Next, the Pats constantly having to do miracle plays on 3rd down this drive to move at all, most teams couldn’t do what they are doing, needing to do, to get first downs, still ends in only a field goal. Lions are up 10-3.

Pats next series ends when Brady has to throw super fast for an incomplete short inaccurate pass… the Lions D is really forcing this team into errors. Again, impressive.

Except for Scheflers horrid EndZone dance, the next Lions drive was a thing of beauty. The team is really coming together and Brady of the Patriots looks HOT! I mean ticked off... real ticked off.

Tom Brady fails to convert on 3rd and 31… me thinks the Lions D is starting to get after Brady a wee bit more then what he’s used to.

Lions starters win 17-3, but as soon as Lions switch to 2nd string D, Brady gets a 44 yard TD making it 17-10. The Lions saw enough about 10 minutes into the second quarter to start sitting their starters (most teams take the starters into the 3rd quarter in this 3rd preseason game). The Patriots are still playing their starters.

Now for a couple of tweets I read...
Al Beaton
And that's it for Stafford. 12-14-200-2 TD-158.3 QB rating. And he very easily could have been 14-14.

@tomecurran: Patriots have no completions to outside receivers, Price, Ocho or Branch so far.

Back to the game notes....
Tom Brady is still in, 1 minute to go in 1st half, Lions have been playing 2nd string on both O and D for almost 4 minutes know… so Silva Intercepts Brady to end their 2 minute drill (full disclosure: I erased the LOL I had typed here in my notes).

Maurice Stovall will most certainly make the team.. great special teams and doing well in the Lions O. (Fairly sure I said it before, but I locked in my estimated Lions Depth Chart on August 15th, it's online, go to http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html for the link to the spreadsheet, info on this is a few blog posts down).

The announcers are now trying to explain away the game, saying Pats D is missing half the starters… (but as I noted, their O is playing more or less intact and they scored 3 points against the Lions 1's).

Shaun Hill to Aaron Brown for a TD… in the Lions 2 minute offense. Great drive, nothing like Brady’s failed attempt.

Brady comes out first series 2nd half, fails to make a 1st down. Wow.

6 minutes into the 3rd quarter and Pats finally put in 2nd string QB. Lions still leading 31-10.

Another tweet...

Greg A. Bedard
The silver lining for Patriots fans is that they obviously didn't game plan for this one. Last week was their dry run.

It's amazing how many are trying to explain away the Patriots failure to look ready to play, but so be it. I stopped taking notes at this point (but have the game Tivo'd just in case for later). The Lions eventually win the game 34-10.

So what do we learn from this game?

First, that the players for the Patriots are going to be severely challenged by their coaching staff in the coming weeks. I wouldn't want to be them.

Second, the Lions are going to be playing with a lot of confidence, I hope they don't start to relax and coast. The Lions coaches have the bigger challenge of keeping the players focused, the Patriots will be very focused for the next couple weeks.

Third, unlike the week before, the Lions starters are looking pretty good... assuming they were indeed doing at least some game planning (and assuming the Patriots actually were as well)... the Lions will be very competitive this year, very very competitive.

Fourth, that 0-16 season (2008), where the Lions won all 4 preseason games still haunts me (and probably you).

If anything dominates my thoughts, it would be that. More so then the Lions dominating the Patriots in preseason.

Preseason Game 2 Lions at Cleveland Browns

2011-08-27T00:45:00.002-05:00

Welcome to the Great Lakes Classic!

That's what they call the annual preseason game between the Lions and the Browns. With so many former Browns on the Lions team, I wonder how many players were confused from time to time about which team they were playing for. Not saying anything like that happened, it's just something that crossed my mind while watching the game.

For that matter, there were a lot of things that crossed my mind while finally watching the taped game just now. First was, why didn't I remember to spray my satellite dish with Rain-X before football season got here (so that heavy rains don't affect my signal, forcing me to not watch the taped delay game but catching the tivo'd replay of the game on the NFL network... Rain-X works great for that and snow, if you remember to actually climb up and spray everything down a couple times a year).

The second thing that crossed my mind was why do they tape delay (and/or black out) preseason games. IT's PRE-season for crying out loud.

Then my mind wandered off to why do I watch preseason games and then blog about it. I mean, it's all just base offense and defense. Okay, so it's the only time you can sack or tackle… and it helps get film on players in game conditions... but both sides are only showing things they want all teams to see… things they want other teams to prepare for but are never used… things to practice for yourself no matter who sees it. It's all a part of the big chess game that is football. I suppose if chess was a contact sport I'd be watching that too, be it practice or real games.

Then the game kicks off and my mind quits wandering, for a little while. Here's some of my quick notes... before I finally gave up on it.

1st series, Lions D-Line showing why they are a force… opposing O trying to be quick and making mistakes.. 3 and out.

Tried 3 Jahvid Best running plays in a row, 2 worked, last one was stripped. Nothing he could’ve done really. Bear hug from behind, knees not touching, plenty of time to strip the ball.

Cleveland Browns then march down the field after turnover, with quick plays and spreading the ball around. Appeared to be a lot of cover 2… did I ever mention how much I hate the Tampa 2 style D? But they need to work on it so I guess that is what they are doing (poorly).

Still not one throw, Aaron Brown runs for a 2 yard loss… then a throw (finally) but to Aaron Brown 1st down. End around to Burleson fooled camera and me, nice play and yardage. Run play by Aaron Brown… stuffed. Lot of run work going on. Stafford flushed from pocket, losing yards, throws ball away at last second. Impressive. But then does it again… holding call on Defense saves the punt team from going to work. Very nice catch by Pettigrew for 27 yards. Try to pound it in from 5 yards out… gain 1. Back of the endzone catch by Burleson that was amazing for the TD.

Next Cleveland Browns series wasn’t even aired on the replay I’m watching. Stafford is seeing the field very well. Another amazing catch by Nate Burleson on 3rd down for 30 yards. Run play by Brown goes 5 yards up the middle. Then Stafford miss throws a couple in a row and they have to go with a field goal.

Spievey Safety Blitz was perfect. Couple of defensive holding calls before and after though are helping the Browns. Must say, the tackling looks a lot better then years past. Lions pressure is back and effective. Not sure why they didn’t pressure (blitz) during the Browns first TD drive, but it sure ended this one.

Cleveland Browns come back with their own pressure and end Lions drive with a 3 and out. Delay of game pushes Harris to very back of end zone.. not sure why they allowed that, personnel problems (who needed to be on the field) appears like. After the punt return, the Browns only have to get 21 yards for a TD. One play and it’s a TD (nice job keeping his feet inbounds after review to GET the TD).

11 yards by Heller pass play by Hill. 4 yard run by Harrison. Heller for 7 yards, first down. Harrison doing better then last week, gains 7 on 1st down. Hill, press coverage, sacked after he tried twice to run it (first time for 1 yard). Oline can’t hold off the pressure.

What a sec... Hill is in already? Why am I doing more or less play by play notes when it's all backups all the time now. Back to letting my mind wander while I await the final score (and to see if there's anything worth actually mentioning before I close).

Nope, mind still wandering... looks like I may be correct in believing Stovall will make the final roster... that 81 yard run play by Smith of the Browns was like a bad horror film rerun of the 0-16 season, not sure what went wrong there but something sure went wrong... Lions down 2 scores when Stanton comes in but they don't act or look like a team defeated, playing hard... and finally, the Lions backups and soon-to-be-cut players outplayed the Browns backups and soon-to-be-cut players for the 30-28 win.

What does that tell us? Well, so far we know the Lions have more depth then the Bengals and the Browns. Good to know but not exactly earth shattering news. I suppose you can add that turnovers kill... even if it's backups versus backups.

So once again the Great Lakes Classic Trophy gets to be displayed at the Lions practice facility (they have one from that 0-16 season as well, so be careful celebrating that) and the team prepares for the Patriots next Saturday night (which is tonight as I type this, hate getting behind and being too busy to catch up).

Preseason Game 1 Lions vs Cincinnati Bengals at Home

2011-08-13T02:20:00.001-05:00

After nearly five months of no interaction between players and coaches (due to the lockout) I was expecting a few things. More then the normal amount of injuries (which I got these last two weeks) and a ton of rust in the actual games... and that's exactly what I saw in preseason game 1... from the Bengals.

The Lions on the other hand didn't even show the rust you'd normally see in the first preseason game after 5 months of OTAs and organized workouts. Some of that was due to the fact that none of the 2011 draft picks were starting in the first half of the game but I am finding it hard to explain the rest. I'll have to go with good coaches and good players.

There are new kickoff rules in place that give teams like the Lions an advantage. Yes, I said an advantage. While other teams are kneeling it down in the endzone and starting on the 20 yard line, teams with a very good return man will still take it 30 plus yards instead. Just as Stefan Logan did on the opening kickoff. The other advantage goes to teams who have speed on special teams due to all the players having to remain within 5 yards of the kicking LOS (line of scrimmage). If you're a slow team you are going to take another crucial second or two to get up to speed to cover a kick, and that equates to better returns for the opponent. The Lions are very fast covering kicks to go along with their returns.

Sandwiched between Logans first kick return (appearing as if in regular season form) and the kick coverage teams forced fumble and recovery was the Lions offense marching it down the field for a beautiful TD throw by Stafford to CJ. While the Bengals showed plenty of rust, the Lions did not. Hopefully that mismatch continues on into the season and it wasn't just the Bengals making the Lions look good.

The Refs were also a bit rusty, pretty much giving Nate Burleson a TD. It doesn't make up for the one they took away last year against the Bears in regular season, but it was nice to see something go the Lions way just this once.

Once the Bengals spotted the Lions 14 points the Bengals new QB Andy Dalton threw his first NFL pass, completing it perfectly to Chris Houston. The interception by Houston got the defense all riled up, pretty much keeping it that way all game.

It was nice to see the Lions players defending each other, mess with one and boom, they get you back... penalties be damned... the penalty yards were bad, but the desire to play as a team no matter the cost is very very good.

When the backups took to the field they didn't show any rust either. Though I must say there is a lot of room for improvement in the run blocking department, and if Jerome Harrison wants to earn his roster spot he needs to quit dancing and start going north more. His role is not to get a TD on every play. He only has a couple more weeks to show he gets that.

If the Lions decide to keep a dancer/speedster instead of a power runner, then Aaron Brown may just win the job over Bell or Harrison (unless they keep 4 halfbacks).

Hopefully we won't be seeing the Lions quarterbacks somersaulting into the endzone again, though it certainly was entertaining and it got the team further fired up, even if the coaches were cringing.

One note on a specific defensive player; Amari Spievey might just do alright at safety.. wow. He keeps that up and he could make the probowl this year.

I was going to write that Brandon McDonald makes the team at CB... if someone gets injured. But he may end up taking a job away from someone even without injury. Maybe. It'll be interesting to see if he can improve over the next couple of weeks or if that was it.

WR Maurice Stovall could push WR Derrick Wiliams for a job too, but Stanton showed some vet-like moxy going to D-Will a third time after 2 drops in a row for a nice 1st down on the third try.

The field goal as time expires with the clock ticking down from 13 seconds was a big time play. No rust there, heck, most teams couldn't do that at the end of the season.

I'm going to keep my eye on Ian Johnson. He may actually push to make the roster. Not necessarily against the other RBs, but against 37 other guys for the 53rd roster spot. My estimated roster has a few names in italics, those being the players I foresee as competing against each other for the 52nd and 53rd roster spots. Guys like Randy Phillips, Ian Johnson, Cobrani Mixon, Doug Hogue, and others.

An NFL team needs a lot of solid players on the roster to remain in games, but it's the playmakers that can at any moment turn a game around. The Lions may just have enough playmakers on their team now to put games away when they need to. Scattered though the offense, defense, and special teams there are guys who can get the job done. None of them appeared "rusty" from their 5 month break, and that bodes well for the season. Now, are they consistent? Time to prove it.

Lions Estimated Roster 2011

2011-08-08T01:32:00.007-05:00

In only a few weeks the Lions, along with the rest of the NFL teams, will be required to cut their rosters of 90 players down to 53 (in two stages). So who makes the Lions team and why? By the way, I've been doing this for years, the best so far is 48 right and the worst was 43... I plan to hit a new record in accuracy this year.

First, some old business. A couple of posts down (http://thenetrat.blogspot.com/2011/07/free-agency-is-almost-here.html) I made my free agency predictions, before the final CBA (http://www.thenetrat.com/cba-2011-2020.pdf) was ever approved. I listed 6 cornerbacks and 4 linebackers with one of each group as my primary pick and one of each group as my long shot pick. So, how did I do? At cornerback I missed my primary pick when Josh Wilson signed with the Washington Redskins, but just below his name was one Eric Wright. At linebacker my primary pick was Justin Durant... NAILED IT... but not only that, my long shot pick was Stephen Tulloch, nailed THAT ONE too!!! What does this have to do with my estimated Lions roster for 2011? Well, when you look at my depth chart, you will see 3 new starters on it from Free Agency, and all 3 of them were those picks.

Barring injury, I think the Lions are all set with their starters, on offense, defense and special teams (Kicker, Punter and Long Snapper). Now if one of the other players happens to play lights out and takes a job away, so much the better for the team and for us fans. These guys definitely make the team:

Nate Burleson
Jeff Backus
Rob Sims
Dominic Raiola
Stephen Peterman
Gosder Cherilus
Brandon Pettigrew
Calvin Johnson
Matt Stafford
Jerome Felton
Jahvid Best
Cliff Avril
Corey Williams
Ndamukong Suh
Kyle Vanden Bosch
DeAndre Levy
Stephen Tulloch
Justin Durant
Chris Houston
Eric Wright
Amari Spievey
Louis Delmas
Jason Hanson
Nick Harris
Don Muhlbach

There are a number of backups that are near locks to make the roster (again barring injury or trade).

Rashied Davis
Jason Fox
Corey Hilliard
Tony Schefler
Shaun Hill
Lawrence Jackson
Nick Fairley
Sammie Lee Hill
Willie Young
Ashlee Palmer
Isaiah Ekejuba
Bobby Carpenter
John Wendling
Stefan Logan
Will Heller
Titus Young
Drew Stanton
Alphonso Smith

Then there are the few roster spots that are being highly contested, not by just players in their own player group, but by players in other groups as well. The proverbial bottom 10 of the roster.

Guys like Derrick Williams are not only fighting off the other WRs but also the RBs as the team looks at who to keep and who not to (or who to try and trade for more picks next year).

Others who are competing against their own position group as well as the rest of the team include Randy Phillips, Jerome Harrison, Michael Bell, Ian Johnson, Aaron Brown, Doug Hogue, Cobrani Mixon, Maurice Stovall, and Brandon McDonald.

There are also positions that will be filled regardless of other positions, such as backup guard and/or backup center. I've a hunch Niswanger and Thomas take those spots due to flexibility to play either Guard and Tackle or Guard and Center.

It's a lot easier to see all these names on a depth chart/spreadsheet with some color coding and a list of players fighting for roster spots. My sheet is online at http://www.theNetRat.com/depthchart.html... and you may enter changes to it then save it to your computer or print it if you wish (you are not allowed to post it online elsewhere, but you may link to it). I love to use it to play "what if" when it comes to making roster predictions. Just some pointers for you, keep the offense and the defense between 24 and 26 players each, along with the kicker, punter and long snapper to make 53 total. The Lions have never gone below 24 players on one side of the ball for more then 2 days (since I've been tracking it).

Oh, and one more piece of old news, KVB re-worked his contract freeing up $2.46 million in salary cap. The Lions are now at approximately $4.612 million under the cap based on the information I currently have.

Time to watch the first pre-season game... then make my final changes to my estimated depth chart before I lock it in to see how I do on final cut-down day. (The only changes I'll be making between Sunday and final cut-down day are for new pick-ups, injuries, and the like).

Lions Salary Cap Situation as of 8-6-2011

2011-08-06T20:54:00.002-05:00

Computing the Detroit Lions Salary Cap situation is a combination exercise in accounting and detective work. The Lions themselves divulge absolutely nothing about contract terms so I have to rely on the press (many times the home paper of the player), the players' agent, tweets by the player or his friends, Rotoworld, the NFLPA, and any other source I can find (several of which I am purposely not divulging else risk losing the source). Needless to say, the results are approximate!

One missed roster bonus, one wrong signing bonus guess, heck, one wrong mathematical formula in my spreadsheet, and the numbers are all wrong. If I can get within a half million dollars of the real number, I feel I am being accurate. Also note, players come and go and it can take a week or more to get info... but tonight I think I am caught up as far as roster moves through today (the 6th of August).

Now for some facts. 2009 was the last time teams had a salary cap to contend with. With the new CBA (which I still have only seen a portion of) the 2011 salary cap is $120,375,000. Teams can "borrow" from future cap up to $3 million ($1 million per 5 year or older vet player three times) for a total cap available figure of $123,375,000. If you read much about the salary cap, you may read about a Performance Based Pay salary cap add-on (normally for guys on their first contract who outplay it and that was lost last year) of $3.5 million per team. That amount is already included in the $120,375,000 salary cap figure, without it, the salary cap would've been $116,875,000. There are some credits for signing veteran players, presumably to 1 year contracts and presumably for vet minimum wage (as in the old CBA) but since no one I know has seen that part of the new CBA we can only guess about that. One other note about the total cap available figure, there might be, as it is not verified and no one knows how much if it's true, but there might be credits from 2009 being carried forward into 2011 (Vikings, Lions, and other teams used to work the system to get LTBE bonuses, that is salary cap, moved into future years).

So, assuming the Lions took advantage of borrowing the $3 million cap from the future, assuming they had no LTBE bonuses carrying forward, and assuming that is all there is to know about the matter, then the Lions have a 2011 Salary Cap figure of $123,375,000 to work with.

Next fact, the rookies have a rookie pool, it is part of the overall salary cap (not separate) and the contracts for the rookies must remain under the amounts designated. A month ago I estimated the Lions would have a $4 million rookie pool. Turns out, the rookie pool (first year of all the draft pick contracts) for the Lions in 2011 is exactly $4,062,187. Not only that, but the total of all the contracts for all 4 years must be no more then $22,342,030. In the past there was no set amount for the total of all the rookie draft pick contracts. This explains why the draft picks were able to get signed so quickly this year, everyone already knows what can be spent in the first year and in total for the draft picks, all you can argue over is how much is guaranteed.

My numbers for the Lions draft picks equal exactly $4,062,187 for year 1 and $22,342,030 in total for all 4 years of their contracts. However, I may not have the correct roster bonuses for each player. I do have the correct salary for each player for each year of their contract, and I have all the correct numbers for Fairley's contract, and I have some of the correct information for Young, Hogue, and Culbreath, from which I calculated the numbers for LeShoure (after making a few guesses about roster/workout bonuses for Young, Hogue and Culbreath). In other words, those 5 contracts are correct in total even if a bit off individually.

I have the exact salary numbers for all 90 players on the roster. I do not have the exact signing bonus or roster bonuses for those that have such a thing. I have many, but not all. I guessed on a few. For example, Justin Durant has a 2011 salary of $1 million and a 2012 salary of $1,750,000. I therefor guessed he received a signing bonus of $750,000. Chris Houston has a 2011 salary of $1 million and a 2012 salary of $3 million, so I guess he got a $2 million signing bonus.

Obviously, these guesses could be way off, or real close, or right on.

Knowing this then, I have 90 Salary Cap contracts to work with. At this point in time, only the top 51 contracts count against the cap. If my guesses are close and my math correct, the Lions top 51 contracts add up to $121,597,883.

The way I see it then, the Lions are currently, as of today, $1,777,117 below the cap (okay, I'll say it again, or THEREABOUTS).

On opening day of regular season, all 53 players that make the roster will count, as well as everyone on IR, the practice squad, and any injury settlements from those injured/cut. To determine that though, we'd have to know which 37 players will be cut. I suppose that gives me my subject for my next blog post, my estimated roster.

Some other points for those of you who made it this far... the most expensive contract costing the Lions salary cap in 2011 is $20,310,000 belonging to none other then Matthew Stafford.

Remember, this is the roster and workout bonuses to be paid in 2011, the salary, a percentage of signing bonus (called signing bonus allocation) and any other bonuses likely to be earned (LTBE).

At number 51 we have Aaron Brown at a cap hit of $550,095. The other 49 are scattered inbetween.

The highest cap "hit" who is at risk of being cut? $1,500,000 for Tony Ugoh (I was going to say $2,225,000 for Maurice Morris but he probably already got paid his $100,000 roster bonus and his signing bonus allocation of $500,000 hits the cap whether he makes the team or not).

The player who's cap hit is less then Aaron Brown's yet still most likely to make the team? $375,833 for one Aaron Berry CB.

Remember, these are cap hits, not actual money being paid. What's the difference? I think I'll save that for another day.

note: I reserve the right to be totally wrong with my guesses, my calculation, and my numbers posted.

Free Agency is Almost Here

2011-07-20T00:26:00.002-05:00

It was almost 3 months ago since I last posted a blog entry, mainly because I wanted no part in blogging the roller coaster ride known as the 2011 NFL CBA Negotiations (though it didn't stop me from posting it in my forum).

The CBA isn't quite done yet, or at least, neither side has ratified it yet, but that should be coming... perhaps yet this week (likely in fact).

From the sounds of it teams will have a 3 day period in order to re-sign their own free agents if they can. I fully expect the Lions to try and re-sign CB Houston, T Hilliard, DE McBride, OLB Carpenter, QB Stanton, and OLB Palmer among possibly others.

Free Agency is then going to start and the mad dash continues with all 32 teams trying to sign as many as 900 guys to their rosters while fitting under the new and as yet not understood salary cap, possibly even cutting some players to fit the new guys in thus adding to the available free agents.

Like I said in my May 2nd blog entry, the Lions are going to look for players that fit what they are doing and they are only going to sign a guy if they can get him for what they figure he is worth. Plus, the free agent has to be an upgrade (or a potential upgrade) to someone already on the roster. Believe me, the Lions had plenty of time to grade their own guys and all the potential free agents out there. They will provide as many roster spot training camp fights as they can to keep the pressure on everyone to give it their all.

So, the free agent player has to be an upgrade, for the right price, fit under the cap, and fit the scheme... plus Lewand and Mayhew will only have hours to complete the signing or risk losing the player to another team. Should be fun.

With that all said, here are some names and positions the Lions might (and I did just say MIGHT) be looking at...

At Outside Linebacker:
Rocky McIntosh, Redskins. Age: 28
James Anderson, Panthers. Age: 27
Justin Durant, Jaguars. Age: 25
and my looooong shot pick... MLB Stephen Tulloch, Titans. Age: 26 (moving Levy to OLB)

At Cornerback:
Johnathan Joseph, Bengals. Age: 27
Chris Carr, Ravens. Age: 28
Josh Wilson, Ravens. Age: 26
Richard Marshall, Panthers. Age: 26
Eric Wright, Browns. Age: 26
and my looooong shot pick... Nnamdi Asomugha, Raiders. Age: 30

There could be a Safety brought in to compete, maybe a WR, possibly some OLine, but to tell you the truth the Lions are building through the draft so unless they are unable to re-sign some of their own guys I just don't see a lot of FAs being added, not starters anyway. I also don't see the Lions using up what CAP they have left (more on that next blog post) on only one or maybe two guys, hence my long shots above. By the way, the bold names above are my two picks... at this point in time... not counting camp fodder.

Let us not forget, there is an entire slate of UDFA (UnDrafted Free Agents) to pick from as well, I have my eye on a guard with the last name of Mims for the Lions along with some others.

Now that the wait is nearly over we can all take a deep breath and gear up for FA, FFL (if you play), UDFA, Summer Camp and the start of Pre-Season... and do it all in less then 2 weeks!!! Plus, I get to learn a whole new Salary Cap system too. Makes me wish I had got more sleep when I had the chance.

The Next Step

2011-05-02T23:48:00.003-05:00

Depending on how the free agents rules turn out, and depending on who you listen to, there are between 600 and 900 NFL football players that will be free agents whenever it starts. Yes, it will start. You see, it has to. Those 600 to 900 players do not have a contract or a team to play for. Each one who can find work will find work before the first game of the season is played. The first game of the season can not begin until the new league year begins. When the new league year begins those 600 to 900 guys can begin looking for work.

Now, depending on how long the lockout goes on the more critical it will be for teams to re-sign their own guys, as they know the plays (where guys going to new teams will not). Of course, a few teams have new coaches so re-signing the former players on those teams may not be as critical, and in fact, some of those players may want to follow their old coach if he found work elsewhere as well.

In summary, unless the NFL ceases to exist forever, there will be a new league year, there will be free agency the day the new league year starts, and there will be football again sometime after that.

Now that that's out of the way, the Lions did not fill all their needs in the draft. Most teams (probably all teams) did not fill all their needs in the draft. I believe this will be the first time that following the draft every single free agent will still be available. Usually pre-draft almost all the most coveted players are already signed leaving a (perceived) second tier of talent being available. That is what most fans are used to as well. This year it's different. Teams know exactly what they need to begin the season, so certain players will be fought over in what could be some very large contract wars.

Somehow in the middle of all that, the Lions need to come away with a few players to round off their roster. The pessimistic fans will believe the Lions won't find anyone, won't go after anyone worthy of going after, or that players still do not want to come to Detroit. The optimistic fans will believe that every household named player is an option, will want to play in Detroit, and will do so for a reasonable contract or that the Lions will or should gladly overpay for anyone.

The reality is, the Lions will look for players who fit their schemes (or as they say, fit what they are trying to do), and they will look for players who are likely to be worth what they are asking in terms of a contract. There could be some trades, some players could get claimed off waivers later, and some of the Lions own free agents may decide to stay in Detroit. My feeling is that in free agency the Lions have already identified a few players they would like and will attempt to sign them if they can... but if they can not... they will proceed with pretty much who they have. I also have a hunch that there are at least two players that just happen to fit in at LB and CB who will sign a Lions contract. Who? Why? Can't say... it's a hunch.

In the meantime, all we can do is wait. Wait for the two sides to finish gaining (or losing) their leverage in court to restart the negotiations for a new CBA. In the end, the new league year starts when a new CBA is agreed to or when the courts order them to start it. That order however can not be without rules, rules as to how to handle free agency, minimum wage, and all the rest of the details that have to be resolved before the first contract can be approved at the league office.

How long will we wait? I'd say there is a 5% chance FA starts in May, a 25% chance it starts in June, about a 40% chance it starts in July, I'll go with an 25% chance it starts in August and 5% it starts in September or later.

As for whether free agents will be 4 year players or 6 year players? I'm going 50-50 there.

When you look at free agent lists, remember the Lions aren't going to engage in large bidding wars and whoever they do contact when they are allowed to has to be a player that fits their roster, both in scheme and need. Players that used to play for Gunther or Schwartz might have an edge over guys that have not (and I did say "might"). That's all I got for now, and as usual, I reserve the right to be totally wrong.

Draft 2011, Day 3

2011-04-30T17:27:00.002-05:00

The Lions only had 2 picks in the 2011 draft on day 3. Pick #157 in round 5 and #209 in round 7. They did not make any more draft day trades and selected two players to compete for roster spots if and when there is a summer camp.

In the 5th round the selection was Doug Hogue OLB Syracuse. In the 7th round the selection was Johnny Culbreath OG/OT South Carolina State. As with most teams that are not totally devoid of talent, there is no guarantee that any picks in day 3 will make the roster (though round 4 and 5 guys usually get at least a year).

So let's take a look at the two newest Detroit Lions.

Doug Hogue was a former running back that switched to linebacker at the beginning of his Junior year. He's 6'2" tall and weighs 226 pounds. I had him ranked 134 on my big board but other sites have him lower and higher... even with only 2 years at that position. http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_big_board_rankings.html&position=olb has him ranked as the 13th best OLB in the draft.

A gifted athlete who will need time to develop. He will be competing for a backup LB spot with the Lions.

Johnny Culbreath could end up playing either guard or tackle in the NFL. He's 6'6" tall and weighs in the 310 to 322 range (various sites have different numbers on him). I didn't have him ranked on my big board (400 names), but other boards have him. He's a former wrestler who played left tackle in college.

Positives: Looks like an NFL tackle with thick lower and upper bodies, good height and long arms. Has natural bend, good technique on slide. Owns a strong punch and extends arms to maintain distance with defender, resets hands multiple times. Effective cut blocker on stretch plays and in pass protection. Hits multiple targets on zone blocks and downfield. Plays with real attitude, attacks defenders in the run game and latches on, finishing the play. Team captain in 2010.

Negatives: Overextends in the run game and in pass protection, losing posture and opening himself up to be out-quicked in space. Needs to move his feet after contact because won't dominate with pure strength athleticism as he did against FCS competition.

--Chad Reuter
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1701304/johnny-culbreath

http://www.profootballweekly.com/prospects/player/johnny-culbreath-50/ says High school wrestling champion, team captain and four-year starter who looks the part with very good size, long arms and large hands with nice movement skills. However, is raw and unrefined technically. Has a lethargic lower body — is not explosive out of his stance and kickslide needs work. Held his own against Georgia Tech, flashes a mean streak and has moldable tools for a patient position coach to work through mental hurdles.

The Lions will try him out at offensive tackle and guard. There is a chance he makes the roster if he shows anything in camp, but the odds are he'll be a practice squad player the first year.

When free agency starts the Lions can look at signing their undrafted guys, although that could be weeks if not months from now. They scouted roughly 30 people that did not get drafted. Those names can be found on the Lions Contact List that LionHawk puts together and posts in my forum http://badnetrat.proboards.com which by the way, contained the names of all 5 of the Lions draft picks... that's right, LionHawk was 5 for 5 this year.

So the Lions finish the draft with 3 players who will definitely see playing time and a couple of projects... they have a little work to do in free agency but if you take a look at it, not all that much.

Draft 2011, Day 2

2011-04-29T22:18:00.003-05:00

The Detroit Lions added to their roster in the draft again today. Once again they didn't take players most fans and sports pundits figured they would. The fact they didn't address needs has angered some fans for the 3rd year in a row. But if you take a step back, take a deep breath and look at it from various angles you might like what you see... or at least hate it less.

The lions fielded calls but accepted no trades with their 2nd round pick and ended up taking WR Titus Young with the 44th pick in the draft. Yep, another wide receiver. As we all waited for the 3rd round suddenly it was announced the Lions traded back into the 2nd round and were on the clock. The Lions gave up their 3rd and their 4th round picks, and swapped their 5th and 7th round picks, with the Seattle Seahawks... to select RB Mikel Leshoure with the 57th pick in the draft. Yep, another running back. The swapping of picks in rounds 5 and 7 isn't much, only a couple of spots each, but giving up both a 3rd and a 4th round pick to get a second pick in the 2nd round sounds like a lot to give up... but according to the often hated trade chart, it was actually a pretty good value... for the Lions.

Now let's look at the positions drafted. As explained last night, yes they took a DT last year 2nd overall with their 1st round pick and then took another DT with their first round pick this year, but there is a roster spot for him (again, sorry Andre Fluellen) and he will rotate in and play as many snaps as the other starters. He also makes the defense better, he's a difference maker, a play maker, and was a top 10 pick that slid to pick 13 for the Lions.

Tonight the Lions took a WR with their original second round pick. Yes they took WRs high almost every year for over half a decade but who has been able to get the job done in the NFL for the Lions? Just Calvin Johnson. He along with free agent pickup Nate Burleson are the usable wide receiver corp. The Lions wanted, no needed, another wide receiver. I thought they might go with a free agent veteran here but they did not. Any way you look at it there was a roster spot for a wideout.

A few picks later the Lions traded back into round 2 and selected a RB. Yes, they traded back up into round one last year and selected RB Jahvid Best. But the Lions needed a 3rd RB as they didn't re-sign Kevin Smith and Aaron Brown just isn't stepping into the role. So once again, there is a roster spot for a running back.

Do they have roster spots for a linebacker or a cornerback? Yes, they do. Do they need to fill those spots? Yes, they do. Did they need to fill those spots more then they needed to fill the roster spots they filled? That's debatable, but all the spots needed to be filled, so what order or with what method shouldn't matter.

Remember, for the first year ever, the draft is before free agency. When free agency starts, and it will start before the first game can be played, every single free agent is available. Not just the dregs after the draft like it usually is, but every single talented free agent is also available.

So am I worried about what roster spots are yet to be filled? Not if I take that step back and take a deep breath, no. The Lions had x number of roster spots to fill or ugprade, some they will do in the draft the rest they will do in free agency... which spot is filled with which method is not at issue.

When the clock was ticking the Lions obviously felt the players they selected for the roster spots they were filling were better then the other options still on the board. That's all a part of taking one of the Best Player(s) Available that Fills ANY Need. The exact same draft strategy they've used for 3 years now, with the occasional targeted player they trade up for.

Let's take a look at the specific players selected then instead of worrying about what position they play or what the team needs are.

Titus Young, WR, Boise St. 5'-11 3/8" 174lbs. (officially) 4.4 speed (4.58 at combine)

But that's just highlight film, so what's the real skinny?

From ProFootballTalk:

Pro: "Possesses a real second gear down the field and is a consistent big-play guy. Displays good shiftiness off the line of scrimmage as well. Does a nice job quickly beating press with his lateral quickness and a sudden arm over and separating from his man. Is also a pretty gifted and balanced route runner, even when at top speed. Consistently is able to gain significant separation out of his sharply breaking routes and does a nice job staying low and driving back toward the football."

Con: "he is undersized and can be pushed around down the field vs. more physical corners and will struggle to fight his way toward the football. He's also very explosive and sudden after the catch, but too often lets the ball get into his frame and isn't the most consistent of pluckers at this stage."

Read the whole thing here (click on "Full Scouting Report" http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_big_board_rankings.html&position=wr

Another pro/con link: http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/wr/titus-young.shtml

And at http://www.thehuddlereport.com/ppSD/protected/2010DRAFT/PlayerProfiles/Titus.Young.htm "A Pay Site" (edited, see link for full profile)

STRENGTHS
Titus is a quick, long-striding wide receiver with excellent hands that should impact on special teams the day after you draft him. His skills translate very well to a more conventional NFL offense. He is fearless going over the middle on crossing routes because he is faster and quicker off the line than most corners. It is difficult to use bump and run techniques to slow him up off the line because he uses his hands very well and has quick lateral agility. Titus is smart and has an excellent feel for the game. He is in synch with his QB and, because of his run after the catch speed, Titus will turn just about any pass thrown to him on any part of the field into six points. Titus is a weapon that will be very hard for other teams to match up to as a wide receiver on the outside or in the slot.

CONCERNS
Titus has a difficult time handling success. He was suspended this year and challenged the authority of the Boise St coaching staff. Normally when a player is suspended by the team and the press does not know why, it is because the player missed practices and meetings. That is pure conjecture on my part, but since no one seems to know the story, we can only guess.

BOTTOM LINE
There are two things that could keep him out of the first round. One is that Titus plays for Boise St and the media (and agents with media contacts) seem to have a biased towards this team because the NFL does not like the style of offense. The other reason is that maybe -- just maybe -- NFL teams will take into account that Titus was suspended! You have to do your homework on this kid and I'm not one to automatically cancel out drafting a player because he got suspended by his team. Hopefully, Titus has learned a lesson. ...The BS Detector Drew Boylhart

Okay, so he needs coaching and a weight room, got it. Potentially Titus Young will be the exact player the Lions are looking for in their WR corp.

Mikel Leshoure RB Illinois 6'-0" 227lbs 4.5 speed (4.59 at combine)

Yep, Highlights, so here's the rest of the story.

Pro's: A thick, well strapped together back with a compact frame and muscular-looking lower half. Has experience running both from the gun and from the I and looks very natural when asked to pick his way through the line of scrimmage. Displays a good first step when asked to press the hole, keeps his pad level down and runs with good forward lean. Is very patient picking his way through the tackles, allows blocks to set up in front of him, has a good feel in tight areas and maintains balance through contact. Showcases impressive footwork and good short-area quickness when asked to side step a defender and make him miss or slip a tackle. Does a nice job dropping his pad level into contact, runs very hard delivering punishment into defenders and breaks his fair share of tackles.

Con's: Is still developing as a pass blocker, but has good hands in the pass game. Looks natural catching the football out of the backfield, squaring his shoulders and getting north/south quickly.

See the full scouting report here: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/college_big_board_rankings.html&position=rb

Drew talks about how he might be a first rounder here http://www.thehuddlereport.com/ppSD/protected/2010DRAFT/PlayerProfiles/Mike.LeShoure.htm along with more in-depth pros and cons similar to the above.

Another scouting report here: http://www.sidelinescouting.com/rankings/rb/mikel-leshoure.shtml

Looks like another guy who needs coaching, especially on blitz pickups, but has all the tools to be the thumper the Lions needed.

Now it may sound as if the Lions would've been better off taking a linebacker or cornerback (or both) in round 2, but if you go to those same sites and look up your favorites that were still available you'll see each of the options have their flaws as well. My feeling is that these two players fit so well with what the Lions want to do at those positions that they were ranked higher then all the other options by a fair amount. Depending on who you believe, the Lions either reached and had a poor draft so far or got a top 10 pick in round 1 at 13 and two late first round picks in round 2.

As for the linebacker and cornerback holes in the depth chart... let's wait until after free agency to see what the plan is there... I have a feeling we all will be pleasantly surprised.

Draft 2011, Day 1

2011-04-29T00:41:00.003-05:00

With the 13th pick of the 2011 NFL draft the Detroit Lions take Nick Fairley, Defensive Tackle, Auburn.

Now who saw that one coming? Rick Gosselin of the Dallas News did. He nailed that pick and 13 others in the first round. He was the only one I know of though, even the entries in my Lions draft contest (all 42 of them) missed the Lions taking Fairley or even a DT by any name for that matter. Most mocks had Fairley going in the top 10, most if not all actually.

Nick Fairley was ranked as the 7th best player in the draft on my board. www.optimumscouting.com had Fairly at #2. www.nationafootballpost.com had him 4th. www.thehuddlereport.com also had him at 7. The only one that didn't have him top 10 that I wrote down was www.profootballweekly.com who had him 14th.

Nick missed some meetings leading up to the draft and seems to have a few mild character concerns but with Suh and KVB on the team and on the line with him, the Lions DLine coach behind him and coach Schwartz above him, I don't foresee all that many issues to worry about... or at least, I hope there won't be any issues there to worry about.

The Lions is now projected to have perhaps the best defensive line in the NFL, both at starter and with backups added in. If all stay healthy {knock on wood} the Detroit Lions are going to have a defense to be reckoned with before they even start addressing the back 7.

The Lions made this pick despite an entire draft full of offensive tackles to choose from save one (Tyron Smith was taken by Dallas at 9) and despite there not really being a significant need at DT. In all likelihood they upgraded the roster spot about to be formerly held by Mr. Fluellen with the pick (sorry Andre). So when you got one of the Best Players Available and a roster spot for him... the trigger gets pulled. That's building a team with talent.

The best thing about the pick (if I'm being selfish) is that my opinion weeks ago that the Lions would NOT be drafting an offensive tackle in round 1 was totally correct. Granted I thought they might select a defensive end but then I never once, not even for a moment, thought that Nick Fairley would fall to the 13th spot in the draft. I didn't believe it at 2am on Thursday the 28th when I read Rick Gosselin's final mock draft... I didn't believe it when the draft started falling more or less exactly as the Goose said it would... and I still didn't believe it when Fairley was still on the clock after the 12th pick... not until I saw that the Lions pick was in (and thus no trade) and the commish was walking up to the mic did I finally believe it.

So now what? In roughly 16 hours from now the 2nd night of the draft begins with rounds 2 and 3. Who might the Lions select? Well, they may trade, up or down, but assuming they stay put in round 2 the Lions have had direct contact with guys like RB Mikel Leshore; LB's Akeen Ayers, Martez Wilson, Quan Sturdivant & Bruce Carter; WR's Titus Young, Torrey Smith, & Jerrel Jernigan; OG/OC Stefan Wisniewski; and DE/DT Christian Ballard. A few other names to watch out for but with little or no known contact would be: WR's Randall Cobb & Leonard Hankerson; OG's Clint Boling, Ben Ijalana & Rodney Hudson; and there are a few DTs that I won't bother mentioning now.

What surprise move will the Lions make in round 2? No idea. There is a good chance the pick will be one of the names listed above but that doesn't mean it won't be someone else. So pick your poison and tune in for the 2011 draft day 2 at 6pm eastern on Friday (today).

Oh wait, there is two rounds on Friday night. What about round 3? The list of contacts gets even longer. 3 DBs, 6 LBs, 2 RBs, 1 WR, 1 OG. That's nearly half the round right there. Needless to say, the Lions aren't done improving their team just yet. I just don't know if they'll be adding guys like G/C Wisniewski and LB Foster or WR Hankerson and RB DeMarco Murray or LB Wilson and LB Moch... or... yeah, lots of options.

I do know that Cutler, Rodgers and Ponder won't be looking forward to lining up against KVB, Suh, Fairley, and Avril this fall. If they say they are looking forward to it, that's probably a lie. I only know I am looking forward to it.

Welcome to the Detroit Lions Nick Fairley.

My first mock

2011-04-26T20:50:00.002-05:00

I decided to take my top 100 big board that I recently completed and create a mock draft with it. However, I didn't want to do just any ole mock, everyone has a mock, I wanted to create something I hadn't seen before. It so different I wasn't even sure if I wanted to share it or not. However, in the end, I decided that unless I get feedback I can't improve upon the idea and really promote it next year. In the hopes that I can make something of it I created it's own domain name for it.

http://www.mock4.com/

The premise is this, 4 mocks on one page, 2 rounds, using my custom top 100 big board and team needs, but not using the same player more then once for the same team... so 4 different options (hopefully 4 legitimate options) each round per team.

Let me know what you think or shoot me your questions.

Lions needs and the 2011 draft

2011-04-08T00:48:00.002-05:00

Time and again I see mock drafts with the Lions taking an offensive tackle at pick 13, usually with a remark about how Stafford needs to be protected. Time and again I cringe, leave the site, perhaps email the author, make posts in my forum against the very idea of it, and then get rebuffed by others who happen to agree that the Lions will take an offensive tackle at 13 (never mind that no two of them choose the same dude). Almost every draft site on the planet that lists a teams needs show the most needy need for the Lions being an (you guessed it) offensive tackle.

Now, it depends on what site you go to for stats, but the one I went to showed the Lions as tied for 6th BEST in the league at protecting the Quarterback. Not worst, best. There is obviously room for improvement (still got 5 spots to go) but is taking an offensive tackle the most critical need? Will taking a tackle in round 1 help keep Stafford on the field? Sorry, don't think so, especially since none of the 2011 options are NFL ready to seal the edge for a Quarterback in game 1, perhaps not even by game 16, of this year.

Then I hear how old Jeff Backus is. Yet how many starts has he missed? In 10 years he's missed fewer games then most of the draft options have in their 2 or 3 years of college play. Is age a factor? Well if it is, the Lions have critical needs at Kicker, Defensive End, and Center... as those guys are not spring chickens either. Why is Jeff Backus being the victim and none of the others?

Probably because he played average to poorly for years as a Lion. Never mind the continual rotation at coach, scheme, fellow players, etc. Heck, for 8 years I begged for him to be replaced. Now I'm sitting here typing and defending him (almost surreal actually). That's how much better he has played with these coaches in charge, with their schemes, and with his fellow players. Coach Schwartz even said he'd have voted Jeff to the Pro-Bowl had he been allowed to. ESPN North picked Jeff Backus just a couple of months ago as the top LT in the NFC North. Yeah, he sounds like he MUST BE replaced right this moment!!!

Then I get the arguments that Gosder Cherilus had micro fracture surgery, they have to do something just in case he can't play. Many seem to think his career is over. Others think the team doesn't want him (even though he improved so much last year before getting injured). So once again, the Lions must take an offensive tackle to start at RT and eventually move to LT to replace the ancient Jeff Backus who surely (don't call him Shirley) will fall completely apart the day after his next birthday.

The team said they expect Goz to fully recover. The team said they were happy with his improvement last year. The team even had some decent play out of the backups when Goz went down, but no, the man MUST BE REPLACED in 2011, for sure! Perhaps the Lions are indeed covering it up, that his career is over, or that they fear he won't be ready in 2011 to play. Sure, that could be accurate, and I'm sure there are going to be NO Free Agents (whenever free agency starts) that could help out if that were true. Since there is not one single other option and since Goz is next to total invalid status the Lions must draft a tackle, and while they are at it, take a guy who can play RT now and move to LT later... as they are all so very talented and any or all will be able to do this no problem!!!

They (the 2011 tackle draft class), or even just one of them, may very well be that talented. Ahhh... which player is it again? No three draftniks can agree on 1 name.

From there I hear all about how Hilliard is not signed (and of course, never can be later). Fox isn't ready (ahem, neither are the draft picks). Tony Ugoh (who has starting experience) won't help at all. Later round draft picks never develop into starters who can protect the Quarterback (I won't even bother to research that one).

So let me help out all of you who demand the Lions biggest need is a left tackle.

Each and every thing being argued is indeed possible, I will not deny it. But do you know the odds of Backus suddenly being unable to play, Gosder never healing, Hilliard getting picked up elsewhere, Ugoh and Fox being unable to fill in at all ever - even at RT, and all in the same season? I know what the odds are of that all happening... I do! They are exactly the same as the odds of the Lions picking the exact right tackle in the weak 2011 draft class and getting a immediate starting right tackle who can move to left tackle and solely keep Stafford upright forever and ever amen. That's what the odds are.

Oh, I forgot Tom Kowalski's reply to my email about my stance... something to the affect that who says Jeff Backus will actually sign with the Lions once he's a free agent? Well, if he sucks so much and is so old then who would take him? Or how about this one... No team has ever gotten their players to sign an extension in season, even if it's only for another year or two. Lions have half the team who will be free agents next year... what makes offensive tackle trump the other half of the team? (answer, because Stafford has to remain upright... yeah yeah, I know).

Okay, so if you haven't guessed it yet, I do not believe that the Lions biggest need is a left tackle. I also do not believe they even have a roster spot for a starting tackle, and the first round pick SHOULD BE an immediate starter. Finally, I do not believe any of the options in this draft are immediate starters. The Lions do not draft the BPA if there is no roster spot for him, they go to the next name.

By my math then, they Lions will not be drafting a left tackle in round 1 of the 2011 draft. Could they? Sure. My likelihood meter says 10% and that's me being generous.

So what really are the Lions needs then? They could use upgraded starters (that is, they have a potential roster spot for...) an Outside Linebacker, Cornerback, 1 or 2 of the 4 Defensive Ends (should I mention the age and injuries to KVB? nahhh), backup Guard, backup Center, Slot Wide Receiver (or a #2 if Burleson gets moved to slot) and a Running Back to go with Best and Morris. They don't have that many draft picks... and even if they did, who's to say the draft will fall to them in such a way as to pick one of each.

If I were to rank the needs, my ranking would be CB, OLB, DE then WR, G/C, and RB. (notice, no Tackles, on O or D, no QBs or TEs either)

But the Lions don't draft the neediest need first and the least need last... they do look to see if they have a need (a roster spot) for the guys who currently ride the top of the draft chart (BPsA... Best Player(s) Available), but they could fill needs in any order, they could even double up on a spot just to be safe. They would then use free agency to round off the roster and let the camp battles for jobs begin!!! (this is where all the players I and everyone else disses, intentionally or unintentionally, get to prove us wrong and WIN that ROSTER SPOT!!!).

Now, I may have missed a point or two here and there, so feel free to visit my website, you can find a way there to email me if you so wish, or click on the link to my forum, pick up the discussion there if you choose. New forum members are always welcome (even those who still think the Lions will go LT in round 1 this year).

Just remember, when you mock the Lions this year (I made a funny), KVB has been injured more then Jeff Backus, the Lions defense relies totally on getting pressure from the front 4, KVB is aging as fast as Jeff (minute for minute in fact), and if a first rounder was to be picked that plays DE, he would get time on the field without killing our Quarterback whereas a tackle might not get on the field in 2011 at all, or if he does, I can't see it going 100% perfect for Matt or anyone else playing QB.

Draft 2011

2011-03-23T14:00:00.002-05:00

I've been working on my draft board. I plan to revise it a couple more times between now and the draft. My board is based on player profiles from several sources, sources that actually watch tape, then I add to that points (or take away points) for Leadership, Motor, Intelligence, Injuries (recent), and general potential for on or off field problems. That makes up my draft board ranking which should be different then most others.

The first 32 are now up at:

http://www.theNetRat.com/draft.html

CBA idea update

2011-03-07T00:41:00.003-05:00

After a few weeks of feedback I would now strike my idea of a 17 game season (though I don't think it's a horrible idea)... and go with the following:

Keep the current 16 game season. Increase the Thursday games to 8 weeks and put them up for bid (instead of only being on the NFL channel). Add two more teams to the playoffs, no bye weeks. Playoff games have huge ratings, those 4 extra games (and 4 extra teams who make the playoffs) make the game more interesting to fans and would generate much more money then other ideas. Both these ideas came from a current player in the NFL.

Next, add in my ideas for 8 Tuesday night games (bid out) and 2 bye weeks a year (making for one more week of television) and you make more money then any of the 18 game ideas or other ideas out there.

The above along with my ideas for RFA, Rookie Contracts, and how to split the money between the players and owners I do believe would work for both sides.

http://www.thenetrat.com/NewCBA.html

NFL CBA ideas

2011-01-31T11:54:00.002-05:00

A fellow numbers guy and I have been working on "thinking outside the box" a little and came up with some CBA ideas that might work for both sides should both sides ever decide to actually start work on a new CBA. I'll be making some changes to it after receiving feedback and will blog those thoughts here, the link to the ideas is:

http://www.thenetrat.com/NewCBA.html

I also ran across the following article from a fellow blogger which explains things in somewhat plain language as to why there are two sides to begin with.

http://www.thelionsinwinter.com/2010/08/since-before-i-can-remember-ive-lived.html

Game 16 - Minnesota Vikings @ Home

2011-01-02T16:20:00.002-05:00

No longer the worst team.

With today's win over the Minnesota Vikings the Lions end the season at 6-10 following a 4 game win streak (last accomplished in 1999). They will be drafting between 10 and 14 with the final draft position to be determined later tonight. They also finish 3rd in the NFC North Division with the Vikings taking the last (4th) spot.

Not a bad way to end the year for a team that is rebuilding from 8 years of Matt Millen in charge and their 0-16 season just 2 years ago.

Bodes well for the future as well, assuming there is a season in 2011 (CBA and Lockout issues being the factor there).

Some other notes: Calvin Johnson did not play. Matt Stafford is on IR and did not play. The backup RT got hurt during the game and was replaced by the Lions 4th round draft pick in 2010 Jason Fox. And of course, Jahvid Best is stilling playing on two turf toes. On defense, Peterson was a healthy scratch, probably signifying that last week was his last game as a Detroit Lion. Other then Delmas, none of the Lions starting DBs started. KVB and Follett were both out as well of course. Got to say, despite the large number of injured, the Lions have a good system and some good depth. Look for some more talent to be added to the team this coming off season and then look for the Lions to push for a playoff spot. It's time.

Speaking as a fan, it feels good to win (for a change). To the players, it feels even better. To the coaches, front office, even the press, it just feels great NOT BEING THE WORST TEAM IN FOOTBALL. I'm not talking 2nd worse, or 3rd either. But middle of the pack and headed up... or trending up as Coach Schwartz would say.

So it's time for another off season, time to start researching some draft options, time for free agency (and a new CBA) in March. But it's also time to expect the Lions to win week 1 next year, never mind who the opponent is or will be, and time to expect the team to make the playoffs. Most of all, it's time for some other team to be the worst team in football.

Go Lions!

Game 15 - 2010 @ Miami Dolphins

2010-12-26T19:33:00.004-05:00

The good, the bad, and the ugly.

The good: the Lions win game #5 on the year against the Miami Dolphins; their 3rd in a row and their 2nd road game in a row.

The bad: Due to injuries there were many guys on the Lions defense playing that normally wouldn't be playing who were getting abused regularly by the Dolphins.

The ugly: Some how, some way, the Lions made the Dolphins team look ugly by timely interceptions at the end of the 4th quarter by Levy and Vasher (yes, Nathan Vasher).

There were many other plays that were either good, or bad, or ugly. Many by the same players at different points in the game. Pettigrew had quite of few of each, as did Vasher actually. Hill at quarterback, another Hill in the secondary, and various other players all contributed to make it harder then it had to be, and also to seal the win when needed.

The team continues to play hard, fight harder, and now all that work is turning into wins. They are getting better as the year progressed, pretty much as I figured they would (you'd have to scroll way down to pre pre-season blog posts though to see that though). No, I didn't predict all the injuries, or the losses early for that matter. They won't hit my 7 wins in 2010 prediction. But they are a young team learning and that bodes very well for the future.

Next week's final game should be the final game of Bret Favre's career, assuming he actually retires and stays retired. If he can play at all you know he will. I hope to see a great battle for the final game of the season... followed up by the NFL and NFLPA agreeing to a new CBA before the Superbowl. But I digress.

There was good in the Lions - Dolphins game, there was bad, and yes there was ugly, but it was also a win. When it comes right down to it, that's what matters in the NFL, and that's what the Lions got.

Game 14 - 2010 @ Tampa Bay

2010-12-19T17:42:00.002-05:00

The End

The Lions win this one 23-20 in overtime. Yes, I said win. So ends the 26 game road losing streak, the new NFL record road game losing streak. But that wasn't the only thing to end. The Lions also won 2 games in a row, ending that streak (of having not done so in years) as well.

It was Rayner, not Hanson (who is on injured reserve), who first tied the game in the final seconds of regulation and then it was Rayner again with the game winning field goal in overtime. I wonder if the Lions will carry two kickers on their roster next year.

Stanton made himself look good by completing passes to super talent such as Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew. Maurice Morris ran hard and piled on the yards. The defense is getting needed play time in with their depth and the defensive line is continuing to play hard and fast, a good view of what the future has in store for the players, coaches and fans. Sure the defense needs some more talent at some starting positions, that's where the 2011 draft comes into play, but it's good to see the coaches making use of the players they have now.

It was also nice to see some decent officiating for the 2nd game in a row. Hopefully that (the bad officiating) has ended as well.

Lions play in Florida next week against Miami then they come home for their final game of the season. Final game of Bret Favre's career as well (a truly momentous occasion)! It sure would be nice to see the Lions end Favre's career by ending another bad streak, divisional games (they haven't won one of those in years either).

So keep it up Lions... you're fighting hard, learning on the job, playing to win, and this Lions fan doesn't want to see that end.

Game 13 - Green Bay Packers @ Home

2010-12-12T20:43:00.002-05:00

Surprise!

The Lions win their 3rd game of the season 7-3 against the powerful Green Bay Packers. Of course, Packer fans are complaining that their starting quarterback was injured during the game and their 2nd string QB just couldn't get the job done... never mind that the Lions started their game with their 3rd string QB and without many other starters as well (I believe they have 14 players total on IR now). What did suck was that Rodgers is my starting QB in several FFL contests and now I may be out of the playoffs, but I'm not complaining.

It was a pretty ugly game, both defenses (yes, the Lions defense too) played hard and well. Surprising many football fans, national media types, and the Packers themselves. Actually, since the Lions offense was supposed to be the strength of the team this year, it probably surprised a large number of Lions fans too. Despite the fact that the Lions defense has been playing fairly well lately.

You have to give some credit to the offense though... there were a lot of run plays in this game that kept the Packers offense sitting down. I would suggest the Lions get on with signing long term some of those that helped, like Logan for example.

I was surprised the officiating was fairly competent and fair this game. I know I shouldn't be that way, but some of the games this year have jaded me in that regard.

There were a LOT of things that could have gone better. On offense, on Defense, on Special Teams. What surprises many though is that the Lions have not started to just mail it in. They aren't making it to post-season this year so the tendency for a player to not give it his all has to be overcome. It was hinted at in a previous game that this happened, and I'm not saying it was so then, but if there was any minds starting to wonder the coaching staff has corrected it completely. This was a very hard fought game, right up to the end.

Now if the Lions can remember just exactly how hard you have to play to win in this league then good things can start to happen. I think it's starting to sink in... and I think many will be surprised at how well the Lions do in the future.

Game 12 - Chicago Bears @ Home

2010-12-06T00:43:00.002-05:00

What starts well, ends well.

It does if your a Bears fan anyway. From the first play of the game when Rob Sims gets penalized for a false start to watching the Bears kneel down 3 times after the 2 minute warning for the win, Bears fans had a better day then Lions fans.

There were some good things, like Stantons play (for the most part), Avril's sacks (3 of them but none late when needed the most), Burleson did some good and bad (more good then bad). As did Pettigrew (who could've had a great game with a few less drops). There were even a few GREAT plays...

53 seconds to go in 2nd quarter, down 10-14, the Lions run a play with Best who bounces it outside then they follow it with a great catch and run by Calvin Johnson to score a TD in 2 plays (91 yards). After halftime, 50 seconds in, Avril forces a fumble and it's recovered by the Lions at the Chicago 9 yard line, but the Bears hold and the Lions are forced to kick a field goal. That would be the last points they score in the game. That would also be the end of the GREAT plays.

There wasn't much but defense the rest of the 3rd quarter from both teams (not counting the Bears' kicker getting his career record longest field goal of 54 yards). Then with 12 minutes to go in the game Stanton tries to complete a pass to a well covered receiver on 4th and 1, turning the ball over on downs. The Bears then drive down the field to the 22 yard line... on 1st and 10 Cutler rolls out and runs 7 yards, tackled by Suh, who was penalized for tackling the runner (Cutler). They called it unnecessary roughness, but it was only a push from a strong man. In other words, the Refs helped the Bears advance the ball and more importantly got the Lions players (and fans) thinking the refs were going to once again hand the game over. Next play Cutler throws a TD pass to the 3rd string TE. The Lions failed to make any more decent plays on O or D from there on. Finally, at the 2 minute warning, the Bears complete a pass to the 3rd string TE again... for a first down... the Lions with no time outs left and face the loss standing up for the final 3 plays.

Lions lose the game 20-24.

Some questions arise from the game. Why is the officiating so horrid this year? Can it be fixed? Where are the big plays by the Lions late in the game when needed the most? Can THAT be fixed? Where are the wins? Will that be fixed? Will the players union quit trying to drum up support from politicians, chambers of commerce, fans and anyone else and start negotiating? but I digress...

What starts well ends well. Unfortunately, this season for Lions fans did not start well, and it's not looking like it's going to end well either.

Game 11 - New Orleans @ Home Thanksgiving Day

2010-11-25T18:16:00.002-05:00

I'm full.

The Lions though ran out of gas about two thirds of the way into the 3rd quarter. They fought and fought and kept the score close and in fact led for a decent amount of time. Then the Patriots who have a solidly built team decided the Lions defense wasn't as good as they appeared and starting scoring... to the tune of 4 touchdowns in a row to finish the game 24 to 45.

The complete box score / stats can be found at http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010112500/2010/REG12/patriots@lions#tab:analyze

The patched together Lions offense did okay until the chips were down, they simply can't keep their composure and play a full 60 minutes of exerting their will on an opponent. The closer to the end of the game it gets, the more tense they play, and the more errors are made. That said, 24 points isn't bad for an offense in the NFL, if your defense can stop the opponent from scoring.

The Lions defense wore down shortly after half time and before long there was little pressure at all on Tom Brady. Tom Brady without pressure is a sure fire way to lose a football game. The Lions defense was running on empty by the end of the game.

Were they running on empty because they were down on the offense for not scoring more? For the officiating? For the mistakes each player continually made... compounding the negative? I'm not sure. Were the coaches unable to settle the players down and get them to re-focus? Or, would it not matter who the coaching staff was there would be no re-focusing them? Was it lack of depth to keep fresh minds and bodies in the game? Lack of talent? Lack of preparation? All the above? None of the above? Everyone is going to have their opinion on what it was... for myself, I think it was a tablespoon of this and a teaspoon of that. The simple recipe of a half rebuilt Lions team playing against a fully built Patriots team on a national stage when the one team hasn't learned how to handle a lead, or a win, was a recipe for disaster and almost everyone knew that in August, let alone in November.

Until the team starts having fun playing, until they quit tensing up, until their confidence is built, things are going to remain ugly. Problem is, it takes wins to do that, and it takes that to win.

The Lions have a couple extra days to heal up before they start preparing for the Bears at home... if ever there was a time to go full throttle for a full hour this next game would be it, it's not going to get any easier the rest of the year.

Game 10 - 2010 @ Dallas Cowboys

2010-11-21T20:13:00.003-05:00

Continuing on.

The Lions continue losing by going 19 - 35 this week, giving the Dallas Cowboys their 3rd win of the season and 2nd win in 2 games to their replacement coach.

The Lions also continue their NFL record road losing streak bringing it to 26 in a row that began in 2007 when Jon Kitna was their quarterback.

At 2-8 for the season the Lions are now likely out of the playoff race... continuing that new tradition of being out before Thanksgiving Day.

Lions fans continue looking for silver linings but I may have to get back to you on that one, as I have so far failed to find even one in this game.

If you look at the stats http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010112105/2010/REG11/lions@cowboys#tab:analyze/analyze-channels:cat-post-boxscore there is nothing that immediately stands out as bad... I mean sure the Lions continue to not stop the run while at the same time continue to not run very well... and of course the Lions continue to get double digit penalties... but all in all, nothing appears completely out of whack except for the fact the Lions didn't score a single point in the 4th quarter.

So what happened? Well, the officiating. It continues to SUCK!

There was a nice play by Burleson that was called back due to a real penalty which set a bad mood by some players, yet the team continued to play. Then a break down in a punt return play allowed a TD. The team still continued to fight. Then there was a tackle, by the hair, that was called by the officiating crew as a horse collar penalty. It was a totally legal tackle. It was also the straw that popped the balloon, letting all the air out of the team. The coach was irate... the players all got upset... and instead of playing loose and having fun, to a man the team played tight and upset. That bogus call completely changed the game from that point on. One big play might have switched the mood back, but there was none. The Lions may have lost anyway despite the call, but we will never know that either.

Many will say that until the Lions quit causing penalties they'll continue to get bad calls such as that one. I suppose that is true. I suppose the team needs to learn not only how to win, how to close out a game in the 4th quarter, but also how to get over bad officiating. I suppose I should not continue to harp on that sort of thing. Guess what... that's not going to happen. I'm afraid I'll have to continue to point out what I see as the turning point in a game... and I will continue to be upset if that turning point is not a play by either team but a call by an official.

So here we are, about to watch the Lions play a great team on Thanksgiving day, the only Nationally televised game the Lions have this year. The only thing we can be certain of is that some idiots will continue to bring up how the Lions should not be allowed to continue that tradition. They don't seem to have any problem with other new traditions continuing on, but the longest standing one should be thrown away. So before all that happens, I will say it once again, the Lions should CONTINUE playing their traditional Thanksgiving Day game and there is no valid reason to break with that tradition. If you don't want to watch it, don't. Do shut up about it though. Removing the game from Thanksgiving Day does not punish the current team, only the future teams that would otherwise play that day, probably long after you are dead and gone.

Coaches and Front Office... continue on tweaking the roster.
Players... continue on playing, you all must have some pride and drive to win, try to ignore the officiating, have some fun while you can.
Lions Fans... continue on planning your draft parties.
NFL and NFLPA... START negotiating a new CBA. Everyone wants to CONTINUE watching football, regardless of all the rest of it.

You all have your instructions... now continue on.

Game 9 - 2010 @ Buffalo Bills

2010-11-14T19:05:00.003-05:00

Getting Colder.

Yep, it's mid-November and it's definitely getting colder outside. The Lions are also getting colder... as in far far away from where they thought they would be, where they expected to be, and from where I thought they were. Lions break their own record by losing their 25th road game in a row. They also allowed the Bills to get their first win of the year. And it was raining. All game pretty much. The team looked and played cold, slow, and not too good ball.

If one was to look at the box score one would see the Lions losing 12-14 and that the new kicker missed a field goal. The temptation might be to point and say "that was why". One would be wrong.

The Bills are one of the worst teams in the league defending the run... so far at least, that could change (they pretty much had the hardest schedule in the league). Yet the Lions managed only 2 first downs by running (and 16 passing). I think it's safe to say the Lions run game has been bad all year not just because they played tough run defenses... but because the Lions are not good at run blocking. Their fastest RB (Jahvid Best) also appears to have an aversion to grass fields. He looks horribly slow when he's on an outdoor field (at least he has been every time he's played on one so far). This might have been a good game to play Smith more, but that did not happen (6 for Smith, 17 for Best). At 76 rushing yards for the Lions and 151 rushing yards for the Bills it's readily apparent who is the better team at run blocking and run stopping... and it's not the Lions.

The Lions "one-armed" Quarterback (Shaun Hill played the game with his non-throwing arm in a light cast having broke it 4 weeks ago and with a titanium plate and 6 screws inserted) got 314 passing yards versus the Bills anemic 139. This too is a complete flip, the Lions defense is known for it's poor secondary and linebackers... why only 139 passing yards by the Bills? First, the Lions are getting a bit better at defending the pass, but the real reason in this game is that the Bills did not need to pass to win. They did just enough to get the job done and the Lions couldn't really stop them. Didn't really appear they wanted to actually. The body language for many of the players was that they were cold and miserable and they played exactly that way, cold and it was indeed miserable.

The rest of the box score (stats) can be found here if you are interested http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010111406/2010/REG10/lions@bills/analyze/box-score

The only thing that you need to know though is that the turnovers were equal to 1 apiece but the Lions had 11 penalties to the Bills 4. The sloppier team lost.

There were few big plays to add to highlight reels but quite a number of potential winter coat endorsements could be forth coming. Then again, I think most companies want winners for their endorsements, so perhaps there won't be any offers for that either. I guess the Lions will need to figure out how to get warmer before the next 11 days are over, as they have two games to play in that time frame, one being their only nationally televised game of the year. If they do not, it'll only keep getting colder and colder, on the field, in the stands, and from the fans.

It's well past time for the Lions coaches and players to get themselves focused and to get the fans something to feel all warm and fuzzy about. I don't need or want a new winter coat to beat the cold, I just need my team to not play cold.

Game 8 - New York Jets @ Home

2010-11-07T19:36:00.002-05:00

Blew it.

Yep, the Lions blew it. Fought for and got the lead (more then once) but let the Jets back in the game to tie it late in the forth quarter only to lose in overtime 20-23. Not only that, but they may have lost their kicker and starting Quarterback (again) as well. They sure did for the last part of this game anyway. They also lost their swagger, their momentum, their whatever-you-call-it that helps a team compete just that little bit harder then their opponent. Not that the Lions didn't compete, they did, but then they blew it.

They couldn't stop the Jets when they needed to (even after doing so for much of the game) and they couldn't drain the clock when they had the chance to seal the win.

Yes there were some bad flags along with some missed ones. But there were some legit ones that were on the players who lost their focus, flags that never should have happened but were very much deserved.

Yes there were some questionable plays called by the coaches. For example: even though Suh kicked extra points in camp he won't be winning special teams player of the week this week I'm afraid... and perhaps having your 3rd string QB throw instead of calling run plays when run plays were clearly expected by the Jets (and needed by the Lions) isn't really a strategy. But had those plays been executed correctly instead of incorrectly they would've been something to see.

Are the Lions a super deep team able to overcome all kinds of injuries? No. Are they still in building (or re-building) mode? Yes. Were they really and truly expected to win this game by those outside the team? No. Did they put up a good fight for nearly fifty some minutes? Yes. Could they have won this particular game? Yes, I think they could have. But, they blew it.

So why do I sound upset? What happened that wasn't expected? What went wrong that shouldn't have gone wrong? What difference does it make?

The Lions need to learn how to win, they already learned too well how to lose and just when victory was theirs for the taking, they blew it.

Learning to win was that next step. The step was not taken today. It's now put off until some time in the future. I was ready for the team to take a "next step". Most fans were ready for them to do just that... even the ones who didn't know that's what they wanted. Establish a home field dominance, one the fans can partake in. Be able to put a team away when you have the lead. Not just any team, a good team, in your home sold out stadium. Know what to do to win the game on every play and do exactly that. That did not happen today. I did not realize that I wanted it either today until after it was all said and done.

I as a fan wanted my team to take the next step. I thought they were ready for it. I think they thought they were ready for it. I believe that many if not most fans of the Detroit Lions were ready for it. It'll still happen... some day... just not today. No today, the Lions blew it.

Game 7 - Washington Redskins @ Home on Halloween Day

2010-10-31T19:18:00.002-05:00

S.W.A.K.

The Lions put the SWAK on the Redskins (Suh Williams Avril KVB) bigtime for an "easy" 37 to 25 win. Even after throwing an INT in the end zone early in the game and even after Burleson turning the ball over again after being stripped of the ball during another great drive. There were 3 TDs by CJ, lots of great runs by both Smith and Best, the 4th INT in 4 games for Smith, and some other great plays by various members of the team on various plays... but it would be hard to deny that the reason the Lions won the game was due to the SWAK, the defensive line.

There are a lot of fans who didn't get to see the SWAK though, since the game wasn't sold out and therefor blacked out. But for those of us who did see the game, what a great entertaining way to spend a part of Halloween day.

Stafford was a little rusty at first then started to get back into the grove eventually. Some of the other players tried to do the normal lions screw-ups in an attempt to give the game away, including allowing a kick return for a touchdown and various untimely penalties. The refs were a little more even in blowing the calls (which actually was nice to see, not the blown calls or non-calls, but that they spread around the horrible calls to both teams fairly evenly). But mostly each of the position groups started playing as a group, as a team. There is talent spread throughout the Lions roster and when they play as a team they are VERY hard to beat.

You won't be seeing any late night Lions jokes the rest of this year I do not believe. That honor will go to the Bills, the Cowboys, and even to the Vikings (ala Brett Favre). No, the Lions are now (so I do declare) a team to be reckoned with. As long as they do not hurt themselves too much, they can play toe to toe with any team in the league. Note: I did say "As Long As". For they can be beat by any team in the league as well if they do not play together.

Next week the Lions plays the Jets, at home. The Jets just lost 9-0 to Greenbay (yeah, 3 field foals to no points) and are going to be anxious to rectify that feeling. The Lions will need to really pull together to beat them. The Jets defense is top of the line, there will be a ton of frustration by the Lions offense when drives are hard to come by. Luckily, there is more to the team then just offense. Despite the perceived poor secondary, the Lions are proving to be a match for most teams and I don't think the Sanchez led offense will find the going any easier. Granted, the Lions defensive line is helping the linebackers and the secondary look good, but there can be no denying that the players currently on the roster are playing tough when they play together. The Redskins found out today just how tough the Lions defense is, now it's the Jets turn to be meet the SWAK.

Game 6 - 2010 @ New York Giants

2010-10-17T15:21:00.004-05:00

Mental Errors.

Boy did I make a mental error. I sat Maclin and played Nicks in FFL at the last moment and now it looks like I will be losing that match in that one FFL game. Of course, that is NOTHING compared to the mental errors the various Detroit Lions players made. Between fumbles, penalties, and just about every stupid thing in the book that you can do to screw up a game, the Lions managed to eek out a close loss of 20-28.

I'm not saying the Lions could've won this game had they played a disciplined game... actually, yes I am saying that. If not for the sheer number and stupidity level of the mental errors the Lions would've ended their road game losing streak.

The only thing that looked worse then the Lions was the removing of Follett from the field on a stretcher (word is he has feeling in his extremities). Even the injury that ended up breaking Shaun Hill's left forearm didn't look as bad as the team played. I wonder what stewing over all these mental lapses will do now that the Lions are on their bye week. Will thinking about it for two weeks help or hinder? I guess that is up to the coaches and the players, to each their own, so to speak.

Lions will probably be looking for a QB and Stanton will probably be the #2 starting after the bye week. The Lions will also be a little thinner yet at LB it would seem. The front office doesn't get the bye week off, that much is for sure.

As for the players, they need to learn focus. Somehow, some way, they must learn how to remain focused. They've learned to shake off the problems that come up during the game and to keep playing hard, but they haven't learned how to focus and take advantage of that first step.

It should be interesting to see all the analysis that will be done for the next 13 days... but it will always come back to one thing. Mental errors.

Game 5 - St Louis Rams @ home

2010-10-10T15:36:00.002-05:00

10-10-10

Not even the refs could give this game to the Rams. Lions 44-6 win was the widest margin of victory since 1995... this being the Lions first "official" win of the 2010 season. The game was won by a combination of defense, offense and special teams and the current Lions losing streak ends on 10-10-10.

You could argue that each facet of the team got a 10 as well.

Special teams? Yeah, they get a 10. They (Logan) tied the 105 yard return for a TD set in 1998 by Fair. All field goal attempts were perfect. Coverage units were great. No need to argue, the Lions special teams score a 10.

Defense? Holding the Rams to two field goals, holding Stephen Jackson from getting any major yards, not getting as many holding calls, and generally creating havoc for the NFL's new media darling, Bradford. The interceptions and fumbles along with recoveries were enough to make any fantasy football player wish they had played the Lions defense (and I did in a couple of my leagues). Were they 100% perfect? No. But in football you can score a 10 without being perfect on every single play. So I give the Lions defense a 10 in this game.

Offense? The running yards weren't quite as high as I would've wished, but the backup QB (Hill) played a very good controlled game despite not going to CJ much in the first half of the game. There are still things the team can work on, but when you win such a convincing game as this, you just plain old fashion deserve a 10 as well.

The team played a complete game. The score reflected the play on the field. The refs had no bearing on the results. It was all in the Lions hands from beginning to end and they all deserve a 10 for not just winning the game they were supposed to win, but for doing so quite decisively.

Next week the Lions have some momentum but the injury situation isn't quite known yet, so it's kind of hard to tell what is going to happen with that road losing streak... I can at least predict another hard fought game is on the schedule, and if this team can play this well next week... that road game losing streak can also become a thing of the past. Now, can the team play this well two weeks in a row? We are about to find out.

Meanwhile, we all get to celebrate a score of 10 on 10-10-10.

Game 4 - 2010 @ Green Bay Packers

2010-10-03T19:03:00.003-05:00

Getting Closer.

The Lions did not embarrass themselves in this game, nope, not at all. Yes they lost 26-28 but I was expecting them to lose by 3 scores. I'm sure some will say it would not have been as close had the Packers not made so many mistakes but the Lions made mistakes too and neither team made as many mistakes as they both did last week. No, what happened is the team is starting to play hard together and everyone is starting to work together. When they play as a team they stay in the game... even with the lack of talent at certain positions. Yep, the TEAM is getting closer.

The officials are getting closer to calling a fair game as well. They still blew a few calls but they are getting closer.

The coaches are calling plays a little better. Closer to what the fans expected.

All in all I believe this game, even though it was a loss, will make some fans feel a little bit better about the future of the team. The Lions are getting closer, now it's time for some wins.

Game 3 - 2010 @ Minnesota Vikings

2010-09-26T22:30:00.006-05:00

Mistakes.

This game was just filled with mistakes. Mistakes by nearly every player on the team (from Hanson to Hill, Pettigrew to well, yeah, pretty much every player on the team); from the Lions coaching staff; from the officiating crew; even from the Vikings (just not as many as the other three).

It was like the Lions were a team that was recently near the bottom of the league and only just begun to climb... while the Vikings were a Favre INT away from the superbowl. Actually, it was like that because that is what it is. The difference being the Vikings are by no means playing at the level they were playing at last year. The Lions on the other hand, are playing their backup QB and a bunch of defensive guys that almost everyone on the planet knows will be replaced next year (assuming another great draft).

The backup QB explains some of the offensive woes, but not all of them. Pettigrew still needs to catch the ball, as do ALL the other wide receivers, when they get their hands on it. A WR hint if you will: Do NOT start your run until you have actually CAUGHT the ball... stupid mistake. CJ needs to do more to get open all on his own instead of counting on others to do it for him. Lots of offensive mistakes, way too many for an offense that is supposed to be nearly "built".

Best needs to be healthy as the backup RB isn't nearly as good (regardless of name). No, Best being injured isn't a mistake, just another issue to overcome but it is a reason why other RBs are on the field but the play calling didn't change. The play calling needs to open up as playing "safe" isn't going to get'er done. The only way to beat Favre (hasn't changed since 1993 really) is to pressure him, hit him hard, hurry him and trap him in the pocket. The Lions managed only a small handful of this in this game. I believe more could've been done (yes, at risk of less so-called coverage downfield).

Jason Hanson isn't helping build confidence with this coaching staff. Whiffing the catch doesn't either if you are a return man (and it's your main job). Mistakes on special teams another no excuse issue.

Now defense, they actually have reasons for some mistakes. The Lions are not finished building the defense yet... and many young non-household names have starting jobs that could be theirs to keep IF they would only seize the moment. They are not. Some may not get many more chances (like CC Brown for example). Others will get more chances but had better start improving. Overall though, even if mistakes are expected on the defense, there were too many of them to overcome.

The officiating crew needs to know that throwing or fumbling a ball behind the QB is a live ball regardless of what you want to call it. Some officials need to get mandatory eye exams as well... other plays were often quite questionable if not outright mistakes.

I am not upset... I really don't care if the Lions make 7 wins like I predicted or only 5 wins and get a better draft spot. I would like some entertaining games to watch though... this was not one of them. Too many mistakes by players, coaches and officials.

Game 2 -2010 Home Opener Philadelphia Eagles

2010-09-19T21:21:00.002-05:00

Objects in your rear view mirror might be closer then they appear.

Lions lose this one 32 to 35. Sounds like a close game and in many ways it was, but in others it was not. Lions went from being 2 scores ahead to being 3 scores behind but were able to come back with plays that include a 2 point conversion and an on-side kick.

Both teams had 13 passing first downs. Both teams averaged 7.3 yards per pass play. Both teams were 3 for 3 in the red zone. Both teams had 9 penalties. Even time of possession was close (29:08 to 30:52).

Lions had more total yardage but Hill also threw 2 interceptions while the Lions defense didn't have any (but did drop a couple that would've been).

I suppose the most interesting play (or couple plays) was when the Lions turned it over on downs instead of kicking a 49 yard field goal. Coach must not have the same trust in Hanson as previous coaches. They tried twice to get the yard they needed and they even added a new twist to things by playing Suh at fullback. Unfortunately the pile didn't move at all and neither the 3rd or 4th down gained an inch. If I had a chance to discuss this with coach Schwartz, I would say that first of all coach, if it's under 55 yards Hanson kicks (unless you need 7 and not 3) especially at home. Secondly coach, the problem never was the fullback. It's always been the center. If you want to use Suh on offense that's great... can he hike the ball? If so, THAT'S where you need to put him. Now I'm not saying that Raiola can't play center (in this scheme) but he does have one horribly obvious deficit, and that is he has zero power to move a pile. So you were close coach... putting Suh in the game to help move the LOS was a great idea, you just had him playing the wrong position.

The Bears killed the Cowboys today, so last week wasn't just the Lions playing poorly (though there was a lot to fix). A lot of the issues from last week were obviously worked on and some things were improved, but there is more to go even still. Next weeks game will probably not look pretty either, but at least the opponent is going to have to respect the Lions somewhat. Meanwhile the team can continue to fix what shows up, continue to learn and improve, and they should continue to entertain with some interesting plays throughout each game. They have talent, here and there, and the team itself is getting closer to a playoff team with every week of work they put in. That's what goes into building a team.

The results of this game certainly were closer then even I had expected. Possibly closer then most fans expected (especially during the 3rd quarter). Wins are what counts though... most fans don't want moral victories or to hear about improvement... just wins. The Lions will win games this year and games like this one show me they are closer to doing just that. It may not be next week exactly... but the Lions are indeed closer (to winning) then they appear.

Game 1 -2010 at the Chicago Bears

2010-09-12T15:21:00.004-05:00

Sick. I'm just sick. The Lions have had calls go against them before but that may have been one of the worst I've ever seen. Heck, the Lions usually have at least one questionable call that goes against them per game, but none of them compares to this one. You can shout B.S. You can have a heart attack yelling at the t.v. You can even vow to never watch a football game again... nothing will make you feel better about this. That can't happen. It's capital S, I, C, K. SICK!

Calvin Johnson catches what was probably the game winning touchdown in the final seconds, has the ball secured one handed as he's knocked to the ground, gets both feet and his tush inbounds on the ground, and as the ball still firmly in his hand hits the ground he obviously flicks his thumb and finger to release the ball and celebrate his TD catch. The refs converge to call it incomplete. Booth review, even using super slo-mo, can't apparently see the hand motion to release the ball, and instead, using the rule that a WR must retain possession all through the process of catching the ball, upholds the ruling on the field. Two throws later, the Lions run out of downs and chances and time and so lose the game 14-19.

What's worse. Matt Stafford injured his knee and both shoulders while taking a sack and stood around the entire 2nd half in a double shoulder brace on the sidelines. He looked like I feel. Sick.

The game statistically was all Bears. The Bears had scored a field goal early in the game. Yet the Lions led the game for almost all of it after scoring two touchdowns. There was a couple of brain farts there at the end of the first half that allowed the Bears to score 10 points in under a minute. (That's also when Backus missed the one block that allowed the defender by at full speed to injure Stafford). The Lions carried the 1 point lead all the way until the final minutes of the 4th quarter, when various Lions players came down once again with a bad case of the brain farts. The Bears score a TD and miss the 2 point conversion. Unfortunately, the brain fart illness was contageous, and the refs caught it. Sick.

The player who let me down the most? Nate Burleson (2 drops).

The player who will be blamed for a lot but played fairly well for most of the game? Jeff Backus.

The player who surprised me with great play? The entire defense for most of the game. (there were many many defensive stops that NO ONE thought the Lions would manage to do)

The coach who surprised me the most? Marinelli (he called some great d)

The forums can complain about the conservative play calling for the Lions or about the OLine, or about the refs, but the only thing they will be right about is the refs. The Lions had the game won. Even with the all the brain fart illnesses being passed from one player to another and back again, the Lions won the game. Until the refs made us all... SICK.

Last night before a new season begins.

2010-09-11T12:57:00.006-05:00

The team is undefeated. The Fantasty Football team as well. Things are looking great... for one more day. After that, who knows. Educated guesses, that's all we have at the moment. Keeping that in mind, here is my Lions prediction for the 2010 season.

Sunday, September 12 at Chicago Bears. Some teams are well prepared to start the season, for other teams it's a little more of a work in progress. Nearly a quarter of all the points the Bears scored in 2009 (for the whole season) came against the Lions in the two games they played them. Should the Lions have won those two games, their records would've been nearly identical. With a new OC in Chicago, a complicated system to learn, and a new DC as well, I predict that the Lions for a change (and with a new improved DLine) will be the more prepared team and thus break their road losing streak in week 1. Winner: Lions 30-20. 1-0

Sunday, September 19 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. The Eagles have a new QB, a new RB, and various other roster changes. They are still going to be a force in the game though. Can the Lions win in week 2 via a shootout? The game will come down to the defense (all things being equal). Winner: Eagles 38-24. 1-1

Sunday, September 26 at Minnesota Vikings. The only way the Lions win this one is if Suh and company put the SWAK on Bret Favre (Suh Williams Avril KVB) he either has to be feeling his age and then some all game or go into involuntary retirement. With that bum ankle, I think I shall take the Lions this year. Winner: Lions 17-14. 2-1

Sunday, October 3 at Green Bay Packers. I fully expect the Packers to win the division. Their D was really catching on to the coaching at the end of last year and their offense is near enough to unstoppable. This one will get ugly. Winner: Packers 34-17. 2-2

Sunday, October 10 ST. LOUIS RAMS. The Rams are going to be fighting for the worst team in the league once again this year. This game will only help them achieve that milestone. Winner: Lions 21-10. 3-2

Sunday, October 17 at New York Giants. This game will look like the Eagles game... but with different names on the jerseys. Winner: Giants 27-17. 3-3

Sunday, October 24 *** BYE WEEK *** Jack Williams starts practicing at Nickel CB.

Sunday, October 31 WASHINGTON REDSKINS. The Redskins have their own problems and are desparate for a road win. Maybe next time. Winner: Lions 20-10. 4-3

Sunday, November 7 NEW YORK JETS. Jets are going to make it to the superbowl, according to their coach. While the Lions might have the better O (or at least one as good as theirs) the Defense takes over this game... just not the Lions defense. Winner: Jets 23-9. 4-4

Sunday, November 14 at Buffalo Bills. This game should be an easy win for the Lions, but it won't be that easy. After a full hour of hard play they do manage to squeek out the win... making the entire game harder then it needed to be. Winner: Lions 21-20. 5-4

Sunday, November 21 at Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys WRs & TEs will destroy the Lions defensive confidence, leaving the coaches scratching their heads, and it couldn't have happened at a worse time. Winner: Cowboys 27-13. 5-5

Thursday, November 25 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. Thanksgiving against Tom Brady on a short week after losing big time to the Cowboys the week before (the score was closer then the game) makes for a bad day (with good food). Winner: Patriots 27-13. (sound familiar?) 5-6

Sunday, December 5 CHICAGO BEARS. Bears fans are talking about who their next head coach will be. The team is turning on themselves and the coaching staff. But they still have to play the game. With the redzone acting like a demonic 12th player the Lions gain back a little confidence. Winner: Lions 19-12. 6-6

Sunday, December 12 GREEN BAY PACKERS. The confidence from last week is gone in a flash when the Packers jaggernaut comes to town. Does no good to stop the run game with a passing game like that. Winner: Packers 28-16. 6-7

Sunday, December 19 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Back on the seesaw of emotions the Lions bounce back to give Tampa a great game on their own turf. Going into prevent nearly allows them back in the game at the end. Winner: Lions 17-16. 7-7

Sunday, December 26 at Miami Dolphins. Getting another week in Florida doesn't seem to help the Lions like it does other snowbirds. Lions play like they were hung over from Christmas. The overly optimistic Lions fans who were talking about a wildcard spot just yesterday (as their Christmas present) have joined the rest of the fans in talking 2011 draft. Winner: Dolphins 24-13. 7-8

Sunday, January 2 MINNESOTA VIKINGS. Had the Vikings played better earlier in the season they might be sitting their starters this game... but they didn't so they won't. In a last ditch effort to make the playoffs they really attack the Lions who have a few key injuries of their own to contend with. Playing for your pride versus a play off spot just isn't the same. Winner: Vikings 31-16. 7-9

So there you have it, the entirely plausible and thus entirely unlikely to happen, 2010 season. With talk of the 2011 season not happening, no free agency, and a mid 1st round draft pick Lions fans are left to argue amongst themselves about every aspect of every game that was lost so that blame can be assigned to someone for the team not making the playoffs after being in contention for a wildcard right up until Christmas. Never mind the improvement that took place in 2010 nor the fact the Lions actually did better then expected. Those voices get drowned out.

As for the fantasy football team... well, let's just say Christmas was very good this year (it's my blog, what did you expect me to say?).

Post Cut Down Day

2010-09-05T20:17:00.003-05:00

It's been a little over 24 hours since the Lions and the other 31 NFL teams had to get their rosters down to 53 men. Those cut go on waivers and can be claimed by teams based on how they did last year... the Lions ranked 2nd (worst). Basically, anyone the Lions want they can put a claim in for and as long as the Rams don't also pick the guy the Lions will get him. Trick is, for every player claimed one would have to be cut (and that player goes on waivers until 24 hours later).

So, what happened to the Lions roster today?

First, they cut Dennis Northcutt and claimed on waivers Former Packers TE/LB Spencer Havner. He was actually claimed by three teams -- Detroit, Seattle, Tennessee. The Lions were awarded the claim.

Havner is a backup TE and backup LB. Kind of a jack-of-all-trades. Northcutt made the team due to his punt return abilities (in my opinion) but last nights' trade for Alphonso Smith made him expendable (Alphonso can also return punts).

As TimT in my forum posted. Think of Havner as the 7th LB / 4th TE / 2nd FB. Or, an HB that can cover the linebacker position in an emergency.

The Lions also cut LB Rocky Boiman.

Lions claimed former Steelers WR/KR Stefan Logan

As was tweeted by RyanJSteck...
Stefan Logan averaged 26.7yds on KR (55 rtns 1,466yds) -- & 9.3yds on PR (30 rtns 280 yds) in all 16 games with the Steelers last season.

Now I may have the order of the cuts backwards, but this is the order things were divulged so I stuck with it.

What does the trade for Smith and todays' waiver claims of Havner and especially Logan mean? The Lions are working on improving special teams and bottom of the roster depth. Not in a small way either. They actually have a legitimate kick returner and guys who will help the team win.

I managed to get something right... the Lions put in two waiver claims (I blogged that last night). I also got it totally wrong... the Lions put in two claims, they were for a TE and WR, not two defensive guys - though one can play LB in a pinch.

I also now have to rearrange my bottom of the roster now... the next to go if defense is probably DB Wendling... if offense, it would appear that WR Derrick Williams may be the most expendable or as an alternate RB Maurice Morris.

The Lions probably aren't done yet either. There are those players cut to make room for waiver pickups today that they might claim someone from... and as far as aged veterans go, anytime after game 1 they may be picked up since at that time their entire years' salary won't be guaranteed.

Other teams are already making their lists of vets they plan to acquire after game 1, you can bet the Lions have a list to consider as well. The game against Chicago will determine if anyone is expendable for one of those on that list.

.

Final 53 correction

2010-09-04T21:11:00.003-05:00

One correction to DE spot.

That makes 9 wrong with 4 that weren't on the team when I locked it down.

Almost missed Mr Jackson ending up in Mr Hunters place.

Final 53

2010-09-04T20:46:00.002-05:00

I had locked in my estimated depth chart before the first pre-season game. I got 8 wrong this year (5 wrong being my record a few years back). 3 of the 8 weren't on the team when I locked it in. I feel pretty good about that considering everything.

http://www.thenetrat.com/2010DepthChart.xls

Now, there are a number of players sitting on the roster who shouldn't get too comfortable... because there are roughly 680 players from the other 31 teams who have hit the waiver wire and the Lions have 2nd dibs. They will quite likely put in a couple three claims.

My biggest surprise cut? Dre Bly followed by Jansen.

My biggest surprise keeper? Wendling followed by Northcutt.

Waiver claim information should come in after 6pm on Sunday. I'll put myself down for 2 players claimed... both on defense. Now we'll see how that turns out.

Preseason thoughts

2010-09-01T23:52:00.004-05:00

Here is a great read on the thinking a team goes through this time of year (well, these few days between Sunday and this Friday night anyway).

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81a1e654/printable/its-complicated-how-to-get-to-the-final-53man-roster

I can't believe the 4th game of the preseason is upon us already. It's crazy I can't find the time to review the game tapes (well DVDs) I made of the first 3 preseason games and blog about them in detail. Circumstances this year just haven't been favorable for that though, I guess I'll just have to admit it... that I won't be able to find the time to do a thorough job of it.

In looking over my estimated depth chart I can see some things that are likely to be wrong... I made the changes because of IR or PUP or waived/injured but there are more I'd make right now if I could. Mike Moore (who didn't heal fast enough) and Tim Toone will both likely be cut and signed to the practice squad if they pass waivers (and they may not, not with the Rams fishing). Ramirez and Clark both will likely make the final cut, or Ramirez and Northcutt will. I'd probably take Hilliard over Jansen at this point as well. There is even a small chance that DeDe Dorsey makes it over either Morris or Smith... though I think that somewhat less likely.

On defense I would obviously replace Hunter with another choice, probably Landon Cohen due to special teams. Linebacker is going to look different then what I have... especially with the newest addition to the team. Even the secondary may be different then what I had since Spievey was moved to Safety after I locked in the depth chart.

After the 2nd preseason game there was a great deal of talk in the forums about the new backup kicker and how Jason needed to retire. But the guy was kicking in Denver where the air does indeed make a difference based on what I saw in game 3... and on top of that, the guy never kicked a field goal over 30 yards... I don't even know if he can. It's defintely premature to be retiring Hanson and keeping the newbie... it's just not going to happen.

I'll see what I can add to this Friday night before the final cut down date. Perhaps I'll even have a couple hours to review my DVDs. Stranger things have happened.

One adjustment to my estimated depth chart

2010-08-28T11:18:00.002-05:00

In my estimated depth chart (see blog post below) I had to make a change at MLB due to Dizon being put on IR. I moved Landon Johnson to backup MLB as he can play all 3 LB spots. Everything else has to remain the same (even though there are changes I'd love to make). While it's true DeVries also went on IR my depth chart didn't have him as making the final roster anyway (I thought his injury might be more severe then let on). The competition is really heating up now at wide receiver, running back, offensive line, and in the Lions secondary. I read that Spievey has been moved to Safety (which is what Hefney did a few weeks ago). I wonder if the Lions are trying to find Safety depth with someone who can also play nickel corner or if they are just now getting a feeling for various players true fit in the system. They also could be making moves to get the best players on the field at the same time, more on that and other roster thoughts soon.

I will also be back with my thoughts on preseason games. I had intended to do so following the games but due to some unforeseen circumstances ending with a death in the family I was unable to do so. Once I can actually watch the preseason games and comment in detail on them I will do so. Sorry for the delay.

Time to lock in my estimated depth chart for 2010

2010-08-14T13:23:00.003-05:00

Each year as the off season progresses I maintain an estimated depth chart. You can find the link to it on my website (http://www.theNetRat.com)

It is an excel spreadsheet with multiple tabs (at the bottom) showing pre-draft, post-draft, and training camp rosters. I update it all off season according to additions and cuts; my personal visit to training camp; and various news articles.

I make my best guess as to what the final 53 man roster will look like on opening kick off game 1 and see if I can beat my best record at it (48 out of 53 correct a few years ago). The only changes I'll make now that the first pre-season game is upon us is to accomodate guys who get injured and end up on IR or get traded.

There are so many "bubble" guys this year I am not feeling very comfident about my choices. These guys who I have making the final roster may in fact not: Tim Toone, Mike Moore, Dylan Gandy, Jake Nordin, Maurice Morris, Willie Young, and Jonathan Heffney. Jack Williams might even start the season on PUP and not be looked at again until mid-season. Those guys that I have as getting cut but who could win a job from the above "bubble" guys are: Dennis Northcutt, Brian Clark, Manuel Ramirez, Aaron Brown, Aaron Berry, Eric King and KO Simpson.

That's 7 chances to be incorrect right there... and that's just with my own evaluation (versus the coaching staffs evaluations and the Lions scouting department evaluations). The Lions could also keep more of one position and less of another then what I have estimated.

Last year the Lions made many roster moves AFTER the final cut down day, I believe there were 5 guys on the roster opening day that never saw a preseason game (as a Lion). There could be more of that this year, though not as many. I do expect one difference this year after the final cut down day... and that is that there will be some Lions getting cut then picked up and playing for other teams.

Obviously, it will be critical that the coaching staff and the scouting department make the correct calls.

So there you have it, my estimated depth chart for 2010. If you visit the link above and click on the 2010 depth chart you could also make your own chart... as a linked excel spreadsheet you can edit it to your own criteria and save a copy of it on your hard drive (it won't affect mine online).

While I won't be making changes based on preseason games to the chart, I may blog some updates and ideas here. Only one thing left to say... GO LIONS!!!

Lions Practice Sunday Aug 8th am

2010-08-08T23:14:00.002-05:00

My last training camp for this year it would seem, as I am now back in West Michigan and no longer able to attend. I had arrived late due to the packing time required to vacate my hotel suite this morning, the Lions were just finishing up a special teams drill.

The team then entered what appeared to be 11 on 11 with a slew of players not participating. Of the ones that did, I saw the following:

Stafford completed a nice pass to Schefler mid field for a good chunk of yards.
The next completion was to CJ to his far right for a handful of yards.
Stafford then faked a pass and handed it off on a delay to the left, the dline was in his face by then. Quite a lot of pressure brought in that 'non-contact' drill.
Another run play to the left, #44 (Best) did a couple of quick directional changes for a few extra yards on the play.
The next pass was dropped by #47 as he was being "hit" (lightly) and brought to the ground (Nordin is #47)
The final pass by Stafford was dropped by #85 as he fell to the ground with some defensive assistance (Schefler)
New QB was #14 Hill. Run play by #27 to the right (DeDe). Then a run by #27 left. Then a dump off pass to #27. I got bored so started watching who was playing the OLine with Hill (the so called 2's). #68 was playing RT (Jansen). #65, #74 and #78 were also out there (Gandy, Schuening, and Hilliard). Missed the 5th one. Hill missed two pass plays and the whistle blew.
New QB was Stanton. First two passes went incomplete so I tried to catch all the numbers on the field on offense. I got 64 78 72 70 74 16 83 21 and 46. (Gerberry, Hilliard, Canfield, Fox, Schuening, Parks, Toone, Brown, and Dickson). With so many injuries and guys not playing some where playing up from their normal position and others were playing at both their position and the one behind them (extra reps) so nothing too much should be read into who was on the field. Still, I wish I had thought to jot down this kind of info each day on both O and D... perhaps next year.

There were about 4 more incompletes before the horn blew and practice was over (early if you ask me, by about 20 minutes almost).

After practice the press cornered the coach in the corner in the no fly zone (for us peons) and then they went inside after the press dispearsed without mingling with us outside the fenced off area... so I couldn't make Tom late for his mid-afternoon work. Nice move that.

With nothing much going on I decided to finish my shopping and head for home. I will be working on tweaking my estimated depth chart (final 53 roster) during the week and getting ready for the first preseason practice game next weekend.

Sure hope some of the injured get healthy sooner rather then later. The back 7 was kind of up in the air to begin with, now it's even more so.

Saturday Open Practice Aug 7th 4pm

2010-08-08T00:16:00.002-05:00

I managed to get a seat in row 3 on the 25 yard line where in year's past was the "center" of the action... so of course this year it was not so much. Oh well, the good news is after the practice I was able to corner Tom Kowalski who was mumbling something about "there goes avoiding you all weekend". I just laughed and shook his hand. I think he was stalking me since he knew I was going to a Tigers game after I left and he knew I went to one last night as well. Scary, really.

I did make both Tigers games... and that's about all I want to talk about them. Horrible games, especially todays.

So anyway, after the autograph session the players started wondering onto the field. First one out was Derrick Williams. He began catching "kicks" from the machine and was quickly joined by Tim Toone. More of the team arrived a bit after that then Williams and Toone were joined by Aaron Brown, Nate Burleson, DeDe Dorsey, Contravious Parks, and Jahvid Best. Some worked on kick returns and some on punt returns and some on both. Burleson and Williams looked the smoothest at it to me, but that might due to their experience at it. Without the live bullets (a defense) it is really hard to tell how the are doing... except they did all (even the worst ones) look better then last year at this time.

After the horn they went into group drills. The entire offense was on the first half of the field (away from me) so I got to watch the DBs up close and the LBs over from them (again). So Phillips still looks out of sorts, I'm beginning to think he was playing with the ones to get film on him (from a report from the other day). To me he looks like the first guy to be cut from the DB class. Someone was on the field wearing number 36 with no name... didn't know who that was (until I got back to my room and saw the tweet about the Lions re-signing Paul Pratt). Anyway, the DB drills were about concentration and foot/hip work. During the drills Wade was the only one to drop the pass sent his way on one part while #36 also dropped one later on.. and White stumbled on his feet once. If this was normal for any of them they wouldn't make the team. As it is though it was one drill on one day and so I have no idea if it was something unusual for them (for each of them) or something to worry about. I didn't see this problem on Friday's practice from anyone.

My notes say #55 was not smooth and dropped a pass (Landon Johnson). I don't recall the practice play which is why I write it down and look up names later (usually).

The horn blew and some new drills involving both the offense and defense started. First play Stafford throws a beautiful deep ball to Burleson and just as he was about to catch it Houston tips it away (just like the drill from Friday was about). It was a great defensive play... one that Houston always seems to be making if I'm able to watch him. In comparing some matchups; Williams beat White with a pass by Hill; Toone beats Hefney also on a pass by Hill; Phillips got called for interference or should've if he didn't; #87 (Brian Clark) faked out Bly on a great move as did Toone later on; #41 (Dante Wesley) had great coverage on #81 but CJ beat him anyway; Northcutt had a couple of great catches in stride; then King got faked out by Burleson but Burleson didn't complete the catch. (If I left out details I didn't catch them to write them).

The horn blew and my notes say it was 7 on 7 time. There were a whole bunch of short passes that got lots of yards after... really exploiting the LB area (need Levy to get healthy bad!... also note; no LB depth). Stafford is going about his reads quickly, efficiently, and still making a decent looking throw on his 2nd or 3rd reads (of course, no sacking or hitting is happening). I'm not going to post the play by play as I missed either who was defending or who was throwing or who was receiving on most of the plays (hard to catch all 3 when they keep rotating players in on every play).

After the next horn blew it was 9 on 9. KVB 'accidently' rolled over DeDe like a rolling pin and dough. #62 got yelled at, big time (Chima Ihelkwoaba). #24 knocked the ball (fumble) from #44 (Wade and Best). Hill was pulled off sides by Hill (as in Shaun Hill used his voice to draw Sammie Hill off sides). Suh was off sides, twice. My notes say something about Bly making a good play on a RB but I can't read all of it. #85 had a couple of good plays (Schefler, didn't realize then it was him... I don't have ALL the numbers memorized yet). Young got a LOT of personal coaching... during before and after a few plays in a row. Not sure what he did to tick off the coach but he sure did.

Another horn. My notes say that #36 had a nice tackle on a run play but since it was special teams play I don't know what I meant... perhaps it was on a running back on a special teams play? Whatever, #36 (found out it's Pratt did a good play). #97 Hunter got yelled at big time on a special teams play. #50 as well (Isaiah Ekejiuba), in fact, the coach stopped the play and sent him to the sideline and skipped that play entirely.

Another horn and it was announced they were going to play a special situations set.

I saw Kevin Smith play in this, I'm sure it was him. #79 got yelled at (Willie Young) and then talked to by the coach on the sidelines later. I watched for a little while not taking notes. It was all onesided stuff anyway. Did note that Stafford is making fewer and fewer off target throws though.

Another horn and now it's a full out scrimmage. 11 on 11.

First play is a deep perfect ball to CJ... and it's knocked down by Houston, perfectly. Next is complete to #85 (Schefler). Best makes a 1st down. DeDe runs for about 5 yards. A deep ball appeared to be called back. A nice throw to #44 (Best) who ran quite a ways after the catch then slipped and fell making a cut move. Stafford was replaced with Hill who ran a couple plays before #75 self destructed... off sides unabated and another play that was called back for something. Stanton thew about 7 yards to #35 (Matt Clapp). Handed off to #27 (DeDe) for a 1st down. Then a very low snap (shotgun) hit Stanton in the ankle by I think it was Gandy, couldn't tell for sure.

That was it, but I stuck around as usual.

The very first player to exit the field without stopping? Suh

The first player wondering around with ice on the knee already? Kevin Smith

Who carried the hobbled Smith's gear inside? Jahvid Best.

Who found Killer Kowalski on his way to writing his reports? NetRat

And that was all for the day. One final note, I would like to thank the Greektown Casino for paying for 95% of my long weekend vacation. You run a fine establishment!

Lions Practice 08-06-10 pm

2010-08-06T23:22:00.006-05:00

I made it to the afternoon practice on Friday just as the players were making it onto the field. Sat down on the bleachers and realized that both camera lifts were positioned at the far end of the practice area... as far from the public seating area as it's possible to get. Rather then fighting the crowd for the few standing only spots at the left end of the field I chose to stay put and watch what I could, at least the group work was done with the DBs right in front of me and the LBs off to the right a little bit.

Before they did that though the Lions worked on punt formation drills for a little bit. May have been their first time doing this kind of thing or perhaps they were installing some plays I'm not entirely sure. It wasn't full blown punting and returns, just drills pertaining to punting.

After the horn blew the DBs worked in front of my seating area with the LBs off to the right. Everyone else was from 80 to 120 yards away and may as well have been invisible for all the details I could see.

Can you see the others way in the back? No? Me either.

How about behind the LBs? No? Yeah, okay.

Anyway, every year I observe these training camps to try and get a feel for who might make the team and who won't. I was watching the DBs and thought that the guy wearing a Phillips jersey looked lost and confused. I had him on my notes as a guy who wouldn't make the team... then I realized he just got to camp and it's no wonder he didn't know the drills. I will have to make sure I figure out what I'm actually seeing if I want to get this anywhere close to right.

For example... Muhlback was working out with the LB group. Why? Last I knew he was a TE. Then I saw him playing center with the 3s earlier today. Well, his job is safe any way you look at it if you ask me.

Oh, by the way, if you're waiting for me to start giving play by play on the practice, that isn't going to happen. The entire team didn't do a lot of that, and when they did it was very very far away. Instead, I'm going to just explain more of what goes on at camp and perhaps some impressions that the camp this afternoon gave me.

The defensive backs did a practice whereby one would pretend to be the receiver while the other the defender... the apparent goal was to tip the ball away from the receiver while the ball was at it's highest point (but still within catching range). Picture a receiver leaving the ground to make a catch and the DB also leaping to just connect with the ball enough to knock it away.

The DBs then worked on coverage drills... keeping with the routes, etc. After that, they all worked on slapping the ball out of the QBs hands... but not using a real QB... the QB was a tackling dummy with "hands" and the ball was "held" in the one hand in a pose similar to when a ball is about to be released by a QB.

Meanwhile, the LBs were practicing using their hands to block and after that, to catch the ball (intercept) while dropping into coverages.

Jason Hanson walked by, no limp, only 3 or 4 days since surgery. He was on the field the entire practice, occasionally stretching or just helping out where he could.

After the next horn the team split up into a couple groups. Stafford was working with the WRs and DBs on the left, Stanton with the RBs and LBs on the right, both were on the 2nd field (the furtherest one from me). Staffords group was working on receiving routes and defending them. Stanton's group on throwing to running backs and fullbacks against linebacker coverage.

I saw #13 Burleson make a great catch and then have to leap the rope (going into the standing crowd) and returning to the field. #23 Houston knocked down a nice pass (he just keeps catching my eye, and so does Burleson for that matter who then made another great catch). #80 BJ also went over the rope head first making a successful catch (at least I think it was him). #18 Eric Fowler dropped a one handed try. #12 Derrick Williams was well covered and still made a great completion.

Another horn sound.

I saw #44 make another great catch then run both elusively and FAST. He makes the other guys who are very fast look not quite as fast (hard to explain that but it's true). There were completions made to #44, #28, #13, #86, #28 again, and I think Stafford was the QB for all of them. Hill comes in and also makes completions. Stafford I believe was back for another completion then a rare incomplete by sailing one over CJ's head. Stanton made 3 shorter passes but all 3 were slightly low (looked like he was throwing down a hill).

Then the horn blew.

I was thinking that #82 has a chance to make the team, then I realized #82 is Gronkowski who is a TE (not a WR) and that position is already over full. If it weren't though, he'd have had a chance I do believe.

Right about here it started to rain a little so I put the paper away and just watched for a little while. Eventually the team went to work on kick returns with the new kicker doing the kicking and everyone that is trying out for special teams took turns on either the kicking team or the receiving team drills.

What did I get out of just watching for a little while instead of furiously taking notes? Basically that to a man the entire team appears more fit then I have ever seen it (and I've been going to training camp since the first Saginaw camp when Barry Sanders still played). The entire team is fast. Much faster even then last year (and last year I thought they were fast but that was just in comparison to the year before that). The drills are more productive, they apply directly to a play or series of plays that you see every week in season (yeah, they did that last year, but not as quickly, efficiently or as productively as this year). It is basically totally different then I am used to seeing. Will that translate into anything good? I think it will bring about results, eventually. Then again, what do I have to go on but the past Lions practices.

I can hardly wait for tomorrow's open practice at Ford Field. It's a bit easier to see what's happening with only one football field in front of you, and the jumbotron running replays and so on. I may still put the pen down for a bit and just watch though... this team is actually a joy to watch.

Of course it's hard to know exactly what the team will do regardless... after all... there is no sacking or touching the QB, there is no worries by the WRs of being tackled, there is not much chance of getting slugged in the chin in the trenches, and basically the O has it easy while the D can only show it's promise.

The first preseason game will be most important for the defensive guys. It'll be the first time they can really lay into the offense and show they "get it". Some of the potential may prove to be only that, while others might yet shine. Hopefully Levy and Delmas will be ready by then as well.

I have tickets to another Tigers game tomorrow (prefer not to talk about this last one), so the blog will be late again tomorrow night.

Lions Practice 08-06-10 am

2010-08-06T11:23:00.005-05:00

Finally made it to my first Lions practice at Allen Park today. I got there about half way through the morning activities, roughly 10am or so.

As you can see from this picture below (which is a max zoom with my digital camera) it is very hard to see what all is going on. The practice area is a couple of football fields worth of real estate and the players can end up anywhere on it at any given time. They usually move around a lot to prevent damage to the grass.

When I finally got seated they had started Kick Return practice with the jugs machine doing the simulated kicking. First play I saw was #12 Derrick Williams field the ball and do some pretty good zig-zagging to mid field before they blew the whistle (without tackling you can never be sure if they truly would've made it that far or not). #17 Mike Moore was on the sideline in front of me slightly to the left and he was practicing catching the football one handed. He did about 10 of those. Never missed. Then it went like this:

#21 Aaron Brown fielded a kick.
#44 Jahvid Best fielded a kick.
#12 Derrick Williams fielded a kick.
#21 Aaron Brown fielded a kick.
#44 Jahvid Best fielded a kick.
#12 Derrick Williams fielded a kick.

Then the horn blew. (They use an air-horn to signal the end of a particular practice segment.) In my opinion, Derrick Williams ran the best after the catch but also was the only one to double clutch one of the catches. All 3 players were able to field the kicks and take off running though with no drops or major errors.

Next was some passing/defending drills. 7 on 7 or something similar to it anyway, slightly different then I've seen before, all pass plays. Now, during this I had to also deal with the crowd, some walking by in front of me, some talking on the phone behind me, and some yelling... like these dudes (the only 2 in full face paint).

The first play I caught in this session was a wobbly looking pass from Stanton to CJ that he easily caught. Then Stafford threw an incomplete pass but it may have been the wrong route by the WR (you just never tell about these things). Right after that Stafford completed a short pass to CJ in perfect mid-stride. Right about then #24 Jonathan Wade came off the field holding the groin area. I don't know if he was kicked, pulled a muscle or what. He never made it back on the field from there.

All the plays were from the same LOS which was 3/4 of the field away. This is what I could catch out of it:

Stafford to CJ... stop then go route for a nice run after the catch. Great throw.
Appeared to be Stafford dropping the snap (shotgun).
Someone (couldn't see who the QB was, think it was Stafford) threw a nice pass to #13 Burleson on a stop then go route on the other side of the field. I believe it was Houston who smacked the ball hard trying to strip it, Burleson held on.
Stafford to #85 Schefler after the first 2 reads weren't there. Great throw and catch.
#14 Shaun Hill to #21 Aaron Brown threw a short wobbly pass for the catch.
#14 Hill threw an incomplete (but was it on the QB or the WR????)
Noted Jason Hanson across the field (on field #2) doing stretching exercises already, his knee is wrapped but he's out there rehabbing already.
#14 Hill to (unknown) pass broke up, defended very well by I believe Houston (couldn't see number too well, so not sure)
#14 Hill to #84 Pettigrew on 2nd or 3rd read, late throw deep, Pettigrew missed the nice pass somehow (over his head a little but should've been caught). Looked big, looked fast to me... not sure he totally trusts his knee yet, maybe why he didn't "go" for the ball like he might otherwise have tried.
#14 Hill to #85 Scheffler on a nice throw and catch.
#14 Hill to #21 Aaron Brown on a short read and a nice shifty move after the catch.
Noted Houston again playing good corner... I don't usually catch how the D is doing unless they manage to intercept or knock down a ball when it's a passing drill, but I kept noticing Houston playing tight.

Horn sounded.

When #90 Ndamukong Suh and #99 Corey Williams stand next to each other you can't see the THREE people on the other side of them. This was an even stranger drill. No helmets now. Not full speed. Mostly run plays or fakes. I have no idea what they were working from 3/4 of a field away... There were a couple of runs to the right, then a fake run with a nice throw and catch behind the LBs to Pettigrew. After that there were a number of plays that didn't appear to do anything but they were working on something.

Horn sounded relatively quickly... shortened session apparently.

Still no helmets, some kind of passing drill, no defenders. On the field were #5 Drew Stanton, #16 Contrevious Parks, #18 Eric Fowler, #27 DeDe Dorsey, #46 Richard Dickson, #48 Don Muhlback at center, and #83 Tim Toone. After a couple of completions and actual movement down the field (unlike previous drills) Stanton spiked the ball... so it was a 2 minute drill then... Toone ended up catching 3 of the throws, none were incomplete or dropped, and it ended in the end zone (no D, not that hard, but they must've wanted some film on these particular guys).

Horn sounded (already).

Coach talked to them in the middle of the field for longer then normal at the end of practice and from there it was autograph time. Many players took time to do that, some stayed on the field and stretched or worked out with a position coach. The rest went inside. In front of me the kids (and some adults) were getting autographs from Canfield, Raiola, Peterman and Gronkowski. Further over were some of the WRs. Further yet was Delmas (he was the last to stop autographing .. he even allowed some fans to get their pic taken with him. The official autograph lines were long but everyone got one if they wanted it. Coach Schwartz even came over and signed a ton of things.

I looked for Killer but never found him. In fact, I didn't see anyone from the press that I knew so I split.

More tonight after the next practice but not until I get back from the Tigers game that I'm headed to following practice (if I have time tonight, otherwise it'll be around noon tomorrow).

Ndamukong Suh signs a 5 year contract Wednesday Aug 4

2010-08-05T00:29:00.002-05:00

The Lions and their first round draft pick Ndamukong Suh agreed to terms Tuesday night and Suh signed the contract Wednesday upon arriving at the Allen Park facility.

It was a 5 year deal reportedly worth $60 million (with options to max at $68 million) and with $40 million guaranteed.

So, how does that compare to the #1 and #3 picks of the 2010 draft, and how does that compare to the #1 pick of 2009 (Matthew Stafford drafted by the Detroit Lions with the first overall pick)?

To compare is fraught with difficulties, the first issue being that Stafford and Bradford both signed for 6 years but Suh and McCoy both signed for 5 years. So let's do a little math and compare the contracts on a average per year basis instead of overall.

Sam Bradford (QB) got $78 million for 6 years with a possible max of $86 million and $50 million guaranteed. Ndamukong Suh (DT) got $60 million for 5 years with a possible max of $68 million and $40 millions guaranteed. Gerald McCoy (DT) got $63.5 million and $35 million guaranteed. Last year Matthew Stafford (QB) got $72 million with a possible max of $78 million and $41.7 million guaranteed.

Now to break it down on a yearly average basis:

Bradford $13 mill per year (max of $14.333 mill per year) with $8.333 mill per year guaranteed.

Suh $12 mill per year (max of $13.6 mill per year) with $8 mill per year guaranteed.

McCoy $12.7 mill per year (no idea if max or not) with $7 mill per year guaranteed.

Stafford $12 mill per year (max of $13 mill per year) with $6.95 mill per year guaranteed.

As you can see, once you reduce the totals to a per year average, Suh has a contract that guarantees him more money then Stafford and more overall if both max out. At first glance the totals make it look like Stafford is making more then Suh... but that is simply not true. Additionally, Suh's contract is much closer to Bradford's in guaranteed money then McCoys.

Further more, for it be a negotiation the Lions must have originally gone for less then this and Suh's agents for more... meaning they started out asking for the same or even more then Bradford got. It is unknown exactly which day the figures were finally agreed to and then the lesser wording was hammered out, so we can't know exactly why the holdout lasted 4 days (into training camp), but we can see that Suh's agents got more then their fair share.

So what does Suh's agent say (via Twitter)about it? How about this... Ndamukong Suh's agent Roosevelt Barnes on Suh's 5 year contract: "One of the things that was important to Ndamukong was to be able to get here, play well, and get back to the bargaining table as soon as possible. "

The man will be as equally difficult to deal with in 2015 (or 2014 or even 2013 depending on circumstances such as when they deem an extension is needed or demands for trades, etc). For a guy who doesn't like drama, he sure seems to have set the stage for a lot of it (both now and in the not too distant future).

The $40 million dollar man hasn't even defended one single snap in the NFL and already he's making his mark. One could almost expect him to play in a special uniform, one with a great big $ on his chest. Hopefully there was no kryptonite accidently used in building Ford Field.

By the way, I type this from my suite (got a GREAT deal on it, but that's another story) near Detroit and Allen Park having arrived here a couple hours ago from West Michigan after a days' work (long day). Got some business to take care of near here, some Lions practices to watch and take notes on (and report here on) and tickets to a couple of Tigers games. Keep an eye out here for my Lions Training Camp updates tomorrow through at least Sunday night.

Suh ... and the current contract situation

2010-08-02T16:41:00.004-05:00

I've seen a lot of reports on the Suh contract and all of them have been refuted. I've seen or heard about some pretty nasty displays of anger as well. I've even seen some funny new nicknames (NdramaKong Suh being my favorite). What I don't know if I've seen is any truth... so let's try deduction.

The max contract is limited by the rookie pool and the 30% rule. Can't exceed those hard numbers.

The guaranteed money while important, isn't important if you think the player will hit all his incentives anyway... I think the Lions and Suh know he will make more then the guaranteed (barring permanent injury) so it doesn't matter what the guaranteed is, not really.

The Lions have great experience at top contracts... they aren't stingy and they aren't apt to pull stuff.

Suh's agents are the opposite but even that doesn't account for the delay in getting a deal done exactly (see above).

So what's different this year? The potential for a lockout next year. That's what's different. The majority of the top picks get their guaranteed money in the 2nd year (with some in year 1 and most of the rest in year 3). A lockout year in the 2nd year of the contract needs to be thoroughly covered in the contract.

I could easily be wrong here... but it seems to me if all other things are known, and no side is being utterly unrealistic about the numbers... then the new wrinkle might just be the culprit.

That said, there is still some things that just don't add up. One being that ALL the other already signed draft picks have the same new wrinkle to deal with. Two being that the 3 remaining first round picks consist of two players who think they were the best Tackle or the best Running Back in the draft and just because they didn't get picked higher then someone else they should be paid like they were (ala Crabtree last year). Three being that Crabtree's agent is Suh's agent. Four being that Suh has said that he believes HE is the best player in the draft (period) and that makes me think his agent is trying for more then Bradford despite the fact he refuted that claim. So, do I believe the agent here when he refutes the claim or was the question not phrased correctly and a lawyer responded?

Nah... I shall remain gullible and believe it's merely the small stuff that has the talks stalled, since demands of being paid more then your slotted draft spot is always going to drag out negotiations for a very long long long time.

NdramaKong Suh... lol, still funny! (Thank you darkosstache of Mlive Lions Forum for the laugh).

Lions Training Camp and Roster Outlook Part 1

2010-08-01T23:28:00.003-05:00

I just updated my estimated depth chart based on mostly hunches and guesses from what I've read for the past several months. I expect to do another update to it in a little over a week and then lock it down (except for injuries, trades, etc) until final cut-down day.

The link to my depth chart is located at my site http://www.theNetRat.com

I will be leaving West Michigan Wednesday night and heading towards the Allen Park area for 4 days. I will be attending at least 2 of the practices at the Allen Park facility and also the open practice at Ford Field on Saturday. I also have tickets to Tigers games on Friday and Saturday night to add to the fun. Since there are 2 a day practices on Friday and Sunday I may be able to attend even more practices then I thought, depending on my itinerary.

Look for updates here, on twitter (http://twitter.com/theNetRat), in my forum (again the link is on my website), at MLive and finally on my estimated depth chart starting Thursday.

New CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement)

2010-05-28T00:56:00.003-05:00

I have a few ideas for the new CBA and season length, rookie contracts and assorted other NFL issues that I want to share.

First, we already know the owners voted to void the old CBA and that is the reason why 2010 is an uncapped year, and why 4 and 5 year veterans are restricted free agents this year instead of being unrestricted free agents. We have also heard that failing to agree on a new one by next year will likely result in a lockout of the players (and thus no football next year). To continue that out, in 2012 there wouldn’t be a draft and basically all the goodwill and revenue the league has enjoyed will be very difficult to get back, if it ever can be. Both sides have reasons to actually agree to a new CBA, but both sides are still currently far far apart. A little bit about these issues was printed about 4 months ago or so, if you wish to read up on it visit http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d815dc70b&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Second, the old CBA should you wish to acquire a copy of it can be downloaded at http://www.nflplayers.com/About-us/CBA-Download/

Third, the old CBA has a few quirks, a few things one side or the other didn’t like, a few things the press and the fans didn’t like, and it’s entirely likely the new will as well. It isn’t possible to satisfy everyone, and negotiations will eventually make it something that neither side loves but both can at least live with. Since the old CBA was a part of the greatest expansion of the NFL in both money and prestige, I suggest the old CBA should be tweaked just a little rather then starting over from scratch. In fact, they could pass the whole thing with these changes and both sides could probably live with it and still keep the option to complain.

1. The players currently share 60% of the income. The owners are complaining that this level is not maintainable due to increased costs and economic downturns. I suggest the league find ways to increase revenues and players see more spent on vets and less on rookies (more on this later) but I can appreciate that 60% of revenues to the players is too high a percentage for at least some teams. My overly simplistic and amateur analysis suggests the current players should share in 55% of the revenues. However, I believe the NFLPA (National Football League Players Association) needs to do more for players no longer in the league due to injury or who become disabled later in life from football related injuries. 2% of gross NFL revenues should be used to take care of these players (that equates to around $170 million a year). The final numbers then, owners go from 40% to 45% of gross revenues, active players go from 60% to 53%, and an injured players fund gets 2%.

2. Teams didn’t get as much as they wanted, and the active players gave up even more, so it’s time to increase the overall revenues to benefit both sides. They currently play 4 preseason and 16 regular games with 1 bye week for 21 weeks of televised games. Fans and players hate the 4 weeks of preseason, owners and players want more revenue, so the obvious (and already mentioned solution) is to make it 2 preseason games and 18 regular season games, but since it’s a longer season let’s go with 2 bye weeks. Also, to increase revenues, make sure each team has a Thursday night game (except for Dallas and Detroit and their opponents who have Thanksgiving afternoons already). Also, if it’s able to be scheduled, the Sunday BEFORE the Thursday game should be the new bye week, teams would have 11 days to get ready for their Thursday game (instead of 4) and then 10 days until their next game. Revenues would increase by virtue of an extra week of football and 13 extra Thursday night games.

3. Rookies hurt teams by getting paid big money then busting. Top rookies also hurt vets by taking up so much of the salary cap. There are rarely any trades in the top 10 of the draft due to the inflated contracts and there are various positions you just can’t draft in the top of the draft because that position isn’t worth the current contracts at those draft spots. So, a new rookie payscale. In addition, teams get hurt by holdouts. Time to simplify all of it. ALL rookies get a 3 year contract and become RFA’s (restricted free agents) in year 4. ALL rookies get minimum rookie salaries for each of those 3 years. Draft pick #255 gets a $20,000 signing bonus, pick #254 gets a $40,000 signing bonus, pick #253 gets a $60,000 signing bonus. The #1 draft pick’s bonus is then $5,100,000 (if I did my math right). It’s a signing bonus, so it’s guaranteed. It’s for a 3 year contract to an unproven NFL prospect. It will free up millions of dollars in cap for teams to use on vets. Hold up, there’s one more aspect to it, incentives. Each and every drafted player will have incentives built-into the contract based on position. All 255 of them. This part I don’t have hammered out yet, but for example, a Defensive Tackle might get $5,000 per double team, $10,000 per sack, and $10,000 for every game active. A Running Back might get $5,000 per blitz pickup, $100 per yard gained, and $10,000 for every game active. And so on for each position. Player #1 in the draft and player #255 in the draft can make the same incentives (if they play the same position). The actual amounts would have to be based on average stats for that position but it should allow a player to get paid like as if he was a top 10 pick in the current system (taking into consideration the 3 year contract) should he do very well for his team. Also, all contracts are pre-written, where you are drafted at and what position you play determines your exact contract, no negotiations, no holdouts. The incentive pay would have to be treated as NLTBE bonuses for cap calculation purposes.

4. Allow teams to have a practice squad of however many players they want. Since any team can sign a player from another’s practice squad this increases the pool of talent to pick from, it does reduce the available cap for that team and it increases team expenses (locker room, equipment, etc) so it’s self limiting in some ways but it keeps more players learning the NFL then with a hard limit.

Let’s get some feedback on these ideas then I’ll go on from there, if need be. Please comment on my ideas and feel free to introduce new issues for a future discussion.

2010 Post Draft Part I

2010-05-03T22:29:00.002-05:00

Okay, this eating crow business is for the birds (yuk yuk yuk). Just in case anyone else needs the recipes here you go http://bertc.com/subfive/recipes/threecrows.htm

So how did I do on my predictions? Obviously only got some of it right. The Rams did indeed draft Bradford. The Lions did indeed draft Suh. I was 2 for 2 at this point. Berry not getting picked until after pick #6 didn’t pan out, he went at 5. The predicted first four Lions picks will consist of a DT, RB, CB, and LB was 3 for 4. The LB Misi didn’t drop, they took CB Spievey in round 3 and then to mess up my prediction they took Jason Fox a left tackle in round 4. Did they do that on purpose (to spite me)? Nope. Am I upset with the pick? Nope. I just got my prediction wrong, of course, at the time, I didn’t know they were going to bring back Caleb Campbell the Safety from Army that Millen drafted a couple of years ago in round 7 to try out at Linebacker either. Then my prediction the Lions would draft someone that no one had heard of was more or less solid. My last prediction that they would be very active in the undrafted free agency market was also spot on, not that this was that difficult to predict, but there you go. Four for Six.

I’ve been hearing a lot of calls for the Lions to sign PacMan Jones CB. There is something to remember about this “plan” though. The Lions do have a draft board on one wall, but on the opposite wall they have all the current players from all the teams ranked. An adjacent wall has all the current lion’s roster ranked, and opposite of that is all the free agents not on any team also ranked. If the Lions don’t sign someone it’s because they (the player and his agent) are demanding too much (more then the Lions deem they are worth), are injured, are not ranked highest of the available talent out there, or not ranked higher then the players already on the roster.

Just guessing here, but the Lions haven’t either exhausted all their better options yet or they don’t have PacMan ranked as high as some think they should.

I also hear that Jones wants only an incentive laden minimum contract. That sounds good, until you consider just how he will react every time he is benched for either poor play or just to get others their time on the field. After all, can’t make those incentives if you are on the bench. I actually think, that in this case, a non-incentive contract would be better, with penalties for misbehaving… I’m just not sure the wording would get approved by the league.

The Lions have 78 to 80 players on the roster plus the unsigned draft picks. They will bring in a player here or there and release some already signed if they can find someone ranked high enough. But for the most part, the players there right now are likely to be the ones fighting it out for the final 53 roster spots. Not to say that as summer camp begins that they won’t find guys to cut sooner rather then later in order to pick up players that other teams cut, it’s just that there won’t be more then a handful of these. As the draft picks sign they will have to make room by cutting some of the current guys anyway.

Right now the ranking of players on the roster, on other teams, and not on any team continues. This adjusting will continue for months. If I note any changes of any significance I will be back with that information. Meanwhile, I am going to work some more on my depth chart (trying to guess/duplicate what the Lions are doing) and will report back with my thinking over the next few months on each position group.

Perhaps I can lose the crow recipe before the season begins.

2010 Draft (Part 6) Day 3, Rounds 4 thru 7

2010-04-24T20:02:00.002-05:00

In a draft that made my draft board look like most people’s March Madness brackets, the Lions did some pretty solid work, especially when you add up the trades. Of course, not everyone will agree with that statement (not the ‘brackets’ stuff, but the ‘solid work’ part). There are reasons for that. Part of it is because of missing or bad information and part of it is because some “household” names were not drafted or perceived needs were not filled (part of it may be for other reasons as well).

Now before I get into day 3, a little more on day 2. I apparently got some bad or missing information as well. (Not the first time, won’t be the last). Based on most non-pay sites and on both Mayhew’s and Amari Speavey’s interviews; Amari is in fact a very good tackler. (I had written last night that the word is he is lacking in the tackling department). Now my info came from guys on pay sites that actually review film, not just spread info they got from someone else. However, it would seem that the film reviewed on Amari was not indicative of his actual abilities. Well, that can happen. I’m sure most talent evaluators don’t take the time to watch dozens of games on each and every guy that could be drafted unless they are working for a team and even then they don’t have to review every single potential draftee. There simply isn’t enough time between the end of the season and the draft to do that. In the case of Amari, the film watched was less then flattering and the profiles were written.

That type of thing is going to happen, and that is one of the reasons why guys “slide” or are a “reach”. No one has all the information on all the players. Fans have even less information. We fans rely on the work of others. But we fans aren’t getting everything. All I can do is point out when I find out I got bad information and continue on from there.

Okay, day 1 the Lions get Suh, the purported best player in the draft. Also deemed to be a once in a decade defensive tackle. On top of that they got the fastest running back in the draft by trading up 4 spots (see the day 1 report below). On day 2 the Lions get Amari, a potential shutdown corner who isn’t afraid to stick his head in and tackle. All three will be starting and/or making a difference in 2010. Day 3 starts with round 4, the Lions have the 30th pick after trading down. They select left tackle Jason Fox. Jason could probably learn to play any spot on the offensive line in the NFL except center. However, he is not ready to be a starter. He will need time to learn whatever position he will be playing and he will need good coaching to get there. He is a project, which is typically what you draft in the later rounds (some years starting round 3, other years round 4). I assume that Jason is going to be learning LT as a backup to Jeff Backus.

The Lions did not have any round 5 or round 6 picks due to trades. They had 3 picks left in round 7, a round that draft picks find hard to make a roster. So, what happened to the linebacker that Gunther Cunningham was gushing about in a pre-draft interview? Well, the obvious answer is, he got drafted by some other team. One can assume that happened during round 4 but there is no way to know for sure. Perhaps it was round 3, perhaps round 6 or 7 (though not as likely).

In round 7 the Lions took defensive end Willie Young at 213. At 220 they traded the pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for a 2011 sixth round pick. At 255 (Mr. Irrelevant) and last pick in the draft the Lions select Tim Toone, a wide receiver and kick returner.

Maybe one or both of the 7th rounders will make the team, the odds are not in their favor but if they work hard they may earn their way on. It’s all up to them, now.

So, in the words of BamBamFunkhouser over at Mlive “That’s all folks, [the] Lions Suhperbowl is officially over”.

This is what 2010 got them (including the trades, remember, that matters):

Note: Stole some of this from tntmischief

1st Suh DT

1st Best RB

3rd Spievey CB

4th Fox LT

5th Williams DT

5th Sims LG

5th Sheffler TE

6th Houston CB

7th Ko Simpson S

7th Willie Young DE

7th traded for a 2011 6th rounder from the Eagles

7th Tim Toone WR/KR

That's probably 7 starters, some depth, a possible kick returner, and an extra pick for next year. Not real bad for one draft... no, not bad at all.

2010 Draft (Part 5) Day 2, Rounds 2 and 3

2010-04-23T22:06:00.002-05:00

Draft "day" 2 is in the books.

Since the Lions traded up 4 spots to get into round 1 pick 30 yesterday and took RB Jahvid Best they did not have a 2nd round pick. I along with everyone else watched players get picked by other teams all round two just to see who would still be there in round 3, and there were many surprises. However, nothing that affected the Lions much in my opinion.

Then it became time for the Lions to draft at 66, and surprise, they did not trade down. They drafted Amari Spievey CB from Iowa. I wanted them to go with Brandon Ghee CB of Wake Forest who was actually still available. Spievey is nearly identical in height and weight to Ghee, so that part was not an issue. The knock on Spievey is his lack of run support, or tackling, or special teams play. He's a fast, man coverage, type of corner. Which is great, if all you are asked to do is cover. I just don't see that with the Lions. I therefor have to assume the Lions plan to teach Spievey to tackle. In that past, that kind of thing hasn't always worked out. Will it this time? I do not know.

Now, to be fair, there were similar knocks on Ghee, at least in the tackling department. Why the Lions had Spievey ranked so much higher then the others still available I do not know. Even why they had Spievey ranked higher then Ghee I do not know. I surely did not. So the wait to see who was right begins.

Getting a cover corner in round 3 is a good thing, I'm not saying it is not. But getting a defensive player who doesn't like to tackle is the easy way to get into Gunther's doghouse, right Mr. Buchanan? Mr. Foote? Mr. everyone else that is no longer a lion after only one year? That's not to say they never tackled anyone, it's if they tackle on a regular basis, perhaps even love to do it.

Let's all hope, lions fans, that they made the right pick here in round 3. I truly wish to never once have to post "I told you so" here in the years to come.

Now, at 10am tomorrow morning the NFL will finish the rest of the draft. The Lions will finish their picks. I will finish my draft blog. And the rest of the off season can begin.

2010 Draft (Part 4)

2010-04-22T23:10:00.002-05:00

Wow! What a round 1 that was. As expected the Rams drafted Sam Bradford, Quarterback. Also, as expected, the Lions drafted Ndamukong Suh, Defensive Tackle. From there as a Lion fan I had expected to watch the rest of the draft only to see who the Lions wouldn't be getting at 34 (2nd pick, round 2 on day 2). But Mayhew being Mayhew, he dialed up a move to ensure he got one of the other top tier guys on their board.

As the picks were taken in the late twenties the guys the Lions were likely hoping would make it to pick 34 started disappearing. Before long, there was the one left (I am assuming here), with little hope of him falling to pick 34. So in the most unlikely of moves, the Lions traded with the Minnesota Vikings to get Jahvid Best, running back. Now the reason that's so unusual is that they are a divisional rival. Divisional rivals agree to trades about as often as crop circles are admitted to be hoaxes (so perhaps they are not, huh?). Anyway, the Lions move up 4 spots to pick #30 in round 1 and give up to the Vikings the 214th pick in round 7 and agree to swap picks in the 4th round. In all likelihood, the cornerbacks that the Lions wanted were also wanted by the Vikings, so they weren't probably happy with what was left either. Still, you just don't normally trade with your division rivals.

So, the Lions lose a number of spots in round 4 but still have a round 4 pick (big whoop) and lose one of their 5 seventh round picks (another big whoop) to ensure they got their best player available while he is still available. Had Best made it to the end of round 1 (which isn't all that likely) there was likely to be a ton of offers for teams to move up to 33 tomorrow night to get him or someone else, and who that other team would want would not be known. The cost to the Lions to move up to 33 might easily have been more then the move to 30. It was a calculated and shrewd move. One I can agree with totally, even though I wanted the Lions to trade down in the 2nd round and take someone else. (That someone else may be there later, depending on how the draft goes from here.)

The Lions now have a true homerun threat at RB to platoon with the other running backs and the best defensive player in the draft (some say the decade) in Suh, and they have only started their work in the 2010 draft.

Makes me want tomorrow night to hurry up and get here.

Oh, and the best part of the picks, various individuals on various forums were so set against the Lions drafting anyone on offense that they will hate this pick, possibly forever, and yours truly gets to pick on them, forever. SWEEET!

2010 Draft (Part 3)

2010-04-20T22:49:00.005-05:00

The Lions have traded Ernie Sims to the Eagles, they gave a 5th rounder to Denver who then gave the TE Scheffler and a 7th round draft pick to the Lions. Because of this I can remove my prediction that the Lions will draft a TE after round 4. Of course, now the LB prediction is even more solid, which is good, since I've reviewed every single one of the players the Lions invited to Allen Park, or went to their pro-day, etc and only one of them was a middle Linebacker. When I realized that, I was concerned I had made the LB prediction, but now the odds of them taking either an outside or inside linebacker have gone up, I'm just no longer sure the LB will be in the first 4 picks. Still, they may find a player like Levy last year so I will hold on to my gut feeling of DT, RB, CB, and LB in the first 4 picks.

I truly believe Bradford will be a Ram and then Suh will be a Lion.

Round 2 I expect the Lions to trade down, unless certain players are there at 34. Some names (that I fully expect will be taken in round 1) are Kareem Jackson CB Alabama, Ryan Matthews RB Fresno State, Patrick Robinson CB FSU, or Jahvid Best RB California.

If they trade down I look for the Lions to take one of these players: Dexter McCluster RB Mississippi, Brandon Ghee CB Wake Forest, or Toby Gerhart RB Stanford.

I can see the Lions trading down from pick 66 as well, or maybe one of the above names will drop to 66. Some names to watch later in round 3 are: Ben Tate RB Auburn, Taylor Price WR, Major Wright S Florida, Jerome Murphy CB USF, Joe McKnight RB USC, or Jermaine Cunningham DE Florida.

Round 4 names to keep an eye on: Javier Arenas CB Alabama, Greg Hardy DE Mississippi, Perrish Cox CB OSU, Amari Spievey CB Iowa, Arthur Jones DT Syracuse, Linval Joseph DT East Carolina, Kam Chancelor S Va Tech, Patrick Angerer OLB or Zane Beadles OT/OG Utah.

They currently have no round 5 or 6 picks, but those trades may get them some if they happen. The Lions do have four 7th round picks so I do expect movement especially with Mayhews deal making abilities.

My choices? Suh at #2, trade down in round 2 a little and take Ghee, trade down just a little in round 3 and take Gerhart, and in round 4 take Angerer. DT, CB, RB, and LB.

That's it for part 3 of the 2010 draft. I'll be back after round 1 is done with part 4.

2010 Draft (Part 2)

2010-04-18T15:04:00.002-05:00

One of the things I've been doing for years is making my own estimated depth chart to get a visual image of the Lions needs. This year I hadn't had the time to do so prior to free agency but I have completed it in time for my pre-draft edition.

You can find the worksheet at http://www.thenetrat.com/depthchart.html

If you don't have the ability to open an excel file and you do have fast internet access you can download a totally free office suite from http://www.openoffice.org

One change from my previous Draft entry (part 1). Now that I've visually seen the depth chart and now that the Lions re-signed Jared DeVries, I'm going to alter one prediction. The first 4 picks will include a DT, a RB, a CB, and a LB (instead of DE). The need for depth at LB now exceeds the need for depth at DE (if only slightly). In addition, I can see that even if the Lions draft a CB they will need one more in free agency still. I think Lito would be my choice over PacMan in this case, you?

I am now finishing work on my draft board. Expect Part 3 of my 2010 draft blog soon.

Draft 2010 Part 1

2010-04-16T00:11:00.002-05:00

Time to get back to work (on the blog). Since I finally have a night off (as well as an entire weekend... the first since mid-January) it's time for some draft blogging... I even have an entire 6 days to go before the draft starts. Okay, so it's a little late, so sue me.

First, some predictions so that I may eat crow later. (I've been googling crow recipes online, there really aren't that many of them).

The Rams will draft QB Bradford... for pretty much the same reasons the Lions did last year (when they took Stafford).

The Lions will take DT Suh or DT McCoy. I'd say Suh 100% but for the agent factor. Signability does have a minor role in guys who are nearly rated the same, so the pick could be McCoy. I'm 90% Suh, 10% McCoy... most of the day... the rest of the day I'm 50/50.

The Safety named Berry will not be picked before number 7 in the draft.

The Lions will only take a tackle in round one if they trade away Backus in some kind of draft day trade... if they do so, then my DT prediction is null and void.

The Lions will draft a RB, a DT, a DE and a CB with the first 4 picks (in no particular order)... unless they trade away any players from their roster on draft day.

The Lions will not draft an Offensive Lineman with the first 4 picks unless they make a trade of a player already on the roster. (yes, this one goes with the last one, but I want to be right twice).

The Lions will draft a TE or FB or a guy who can play both after the first 4 picks.

One of the players the Lions draft will be someone that no one has heard of.

Finally, the Lions will be very active in the UDFA market (after the draft) and there are some on the current roster who should be getting nervous.

Okay, that's enough work for tonight. I'll try to do more work over the weekend.

Game 16 - 2009 Bears @ Home

2010-01-03T18:20:00.003-05:00

Nothing to see here.

The final game of the 2009 season ends with the Lions losing at home. They finish 2 - 14, last in the division, and drafting 2nd in the 2010 draft. In my prediction contest (see http://www.theNetRat.com/contests.html) there was a tie between I Believe in Now & proof, both nailed the Lions 2009 season results right on the nose. I'm sure they would've rather I won with my 6-10 prediction, but I was once again too optimistic, so Congratulations guys on seeing the future better then I!!!

That won't deter me from trying to predict the draft, or the eventual roster, or anything else for that matter. Besides, as Lions fans know full well, there is always next year.

In this game we saw many of the same mistakes as were seen all season. Wrong routes, mental lapses resulting in penalties and broken coverages, and gutsy play calls that didn't work out.

We fans also see over a fifth of the team on IR by the end of the season once again.

We can expect to see some coaching changes (small ones, like possibly special teams coordinator, wide receiver coach, and maybe a couple others). That isn't a given, just another prediction on my part.

We can expect to see a trade or two maybe, some more roster turnover in free agency, and then we get to hopefully see another good draft. The roster turnover won't be quite as bad as last year however, since there actually are a few keepers on the team now. That's a good thing, because without a new CBA there won't be nearly as many free agents and with no salary cap the good teams are going to spend the big money on the big name free agents... plus with 2 franchise tags per team, many big name players are going no where.

We won't see the Lions using their franchise tags. At least, I can't think of any free agents on the team who the Lions will pay tag money to in order to keep them. It's not like there are many draft picks from previous drafts (from 5 years ago or longer) that are still on the team (see http://www.theNetRat.com/draft.html and click on the draft history link on the lower left).

Some players won't be cut until there is someone else to win their job in camp. The Lions have said they intend to build the team through the draft, that means a few starters per year if you're lucky, so the progress of building the team is going to go a bit slower then most would prefer. Still, fans should see some improvement, even next year. There was some this year, though it's not immediately obvious. Think back to last year and who was considered a "keeper" on the roster... now think of this year's roster... are there more names? Lot more names if you were to ask me. In fact, my next task will be to start my 2010 estimated roster sheets, they will be on the free agency page of my site (http://www.theNetRat.com/freeagency.html)

You should also see the Lions try to fill every "hole" with a body through trades and free agency. In that way, they will not feel obligated to draft any particular position in the draft in any particular order. The Lions front office know they can't do it all in one year, or two years, and that they will need another off season to really get the team built up to a respectable leverl... so if they can get a great possession receiver in round 2 they may take him, if they have him ranked higher then say a defensive end, or a cornerback. I know many don't believe me, but I truly believe the Lions are not going to go into the draft expecting to fill any particular position in any particular round. They could easily take offense in 2 of the first 3 picks. I can see it happening.

In fact, I think I'll make a few more blog entries on this subject... after a few weeks off.

So check back towards the end of the month, until then, there will be nothing to see here.

Game 15 - 2009 @ SanFrancisco 49ers

2009-12-27T22:27:00.002-05:00

Too many turnovers!

Lions lose number 20 in a row on the road and fall to 2-13 for the season and this time it was because of too many turnovers.

Yeah, there were a few of the individual mistakes here and there. Even a penalty or two. But for the most part, all of that was kept to a minimum. However, the Lions kept turning the ball over. If Stanton didn't do it himself, then one of the players would. Of course, I had the 49ers defense in my fantasy league superbowl and won because of them, so I can't help but be a little bit happy about the turnovers... but as a Lion fan first and foremost I can still complain about them.

The front office may have found out a few things in this game, like that Cohen will be able to help the team and that without their #1 TE and #1 RB they need more depth on the offense... but I think they also found out something about their QBs. What they intend to do about it (if anything) I do not know, but should they actually improve the roster and start winning next year and should Stafford go down then they may need to be a little concerned about depth at QB. What with the defense and offense still not running on all cylinders even after 15 games this season there is something I foresee from the front office this off season... more turnovers, as in more roster turnover and shuffling of players on or off the team.

The coaching staff couldn't have been happy with the turnovers either. Here they fix this or that problem to some extent by benching various players and then something new rears it's head. I bet that flight home wasn't nearly as pleasant as it could've been. Neither will it be all that pleasant on Monday I suspect. So I expect to see a little more turnover of the starting roster come next week.

The players themselves are starting to divide themselves up into three groups... those that have "it", those who do not, and those who can't play consistently enough to fall into either category. Those that have "it" will be the core of the team next year. Those who have "it" one week or one play and not the next will probably be back but will have a fight to make the roster. Those that don't have "it" and have proven so will be turning over their playbooks in about a week and day or two.

As we enter the upcoming off season it'll be interesting to watch the moves the team makes (as usual). There may be a few twists... the Lions coaching staff may end up coaching the senior bowl at the end of January... the Lions will likely draft 2nd or maybe 1st... and there may be no CBA in which to concern the front office with a salary cap... so guys like Bryan Johnson, Dennis Northcutt and some others may need to prepare for another turnover of their own, that being from the NFL to the non-football life.

Game 14 - 2009 Cardinals @ Home

2009-12-20T16:58:00.002-05:00

Entertaining.

Well, it would have been if I could've seen more then 10% of the game. I was forced to watch it online and the feeds were pixelated horribly. However, I did get to see many of the key plays and was able to participate in the excitement that this game eventually had in it. Even though the Lions lost, it was a very entertaining game.

It didn't start out that way. Too many mistakes and bad play that seemed to be just getting worse and worse as the game went along. As half-time was about to began I posted in the MLive forum that Schwartz needed to bench Culpepper and play Stanton, not because I expected better QB play, but because the whole team needed a slap... something to wake them up. I got laughed at, of course, because so many seem to think that Stanton really would play QB better then Culpepper even without practice snaps most of the season with the starters, but I was proven correct.

The Lions got a spark, played to tie in the 3rd quarter (their best 3rd quarter all season) and only started to get lax in the 4th. They tried to rally again and fell short, but that is what made it so entertaining.

Meanwhile, the coaching staff is starting to figure out who needs to sit even during a game and who needs to get talked to in order for them to respond on the field. I am not so sure all the players have quite figured out yet that repeating the same mistakes will not be tolerated. Or maybe they do know it, they just aren't able to actually play mistake-free ball. That too is an important thing to learn. It's one thing to practice well, it's another to step it up when the team needs you to in a game. This coming off season should be nearly as interesting as last year. It's a shame that without a new CBA that free agency is going to be so... thin.

The coaches are figuring out how to motivate the players to finish the year without any chance of playoffs and in the end, this will make the team stronger.

Now if only Stafford could get healthy to continue his on the job training. He isn't ready to put the team on his shoulders and carry them just yet, but of the 3 QBs on the roster, he too is the most entertaining. And that is what the big picture of NFL football is all about, entertainment.

Game 13 - 2009 @ Baltimore Ravens

2009-12-13T18:44:00.003-05:00

"should not have done that."

Instead of one word to describe much of what happened in this game, it's a whole sentence.

The refs, yeah, bad officiating if you ask me. I think I said they "should not have done that" about a half dozen times. Did it have much of an affect on the game? Not much, some yes, but not all that much.

One positive for the defense has been the run defense. Well they "should not have done that" a whole bunch today. Horrible terrible defense, both run and pass, in todays game. Many players just put a huge black mark on their resumes and there is a reason why the mark is bigger then most which I'll explain later.

The offense with Culpepper at QB is no where near as interesting as it is with Stafford. I don't think the depth chart will change even after this game, but I wonder if maybe should Culpepper start again if his leash won't be very short. Stanton needs another off season in the Linehan's offense before the coaches trust him (to start) but if Culpepper was trying to find a starting job next year well then he "should not have done that".

Kevin Smith, even though he is not exactly a home run threat, was and has been doing very well in the hard yardage department. 2nd on the team in receptions as well. Well, that injury he incurred during the game looked like a season ender to me. Yet another weapon gone. The 2-14 season prediction that some made is looking real probable now.

I could go on and on and on about various players, saying how they "should not have done that" but what's the point? No, there is but one major thing I alluded to earlier that matters in all this... and that is that this game was in the head coaches home state. All of Schwartz's family was there. Friends. Former teammates and coaches. Many of the people who came to watch in the pouring rain their guy be the head coach of the Lions... and to end up watching the team embarrass the head coach utterly and totally. They "should not have done that"!

What a week they have just made for themselves. How many changes are going to happen, both now and later. The anger on Schwartz's face should tell you that it is not going to be pleasant. As a huge fan of the team, I think it may help a ton in the end. There won't be any glossing this over, and there is not going to be much forgiveness unless earned. Many (and I do mean many) of the players in this game will be saying to themselves, both this week and at the end of the season, "boy I should not have done that" and they will be absolutely correct.

Game 12 - 2009 @ Cincinnati Bengals

2009-12-13T18:31:00.002-05:00

Ouch. (Oh, sorry for the delay in posting this game blog)

The Lions gave away another one. Everything was going just fine until 3 minutes into the 2nd quarter when Stafford threw an interception for a touchdown (pick 6). Ouch, that hurt. After that, it was a race to see who could mess things up the best on any given play.

How a guy with a separated shoulder could take that many hits and not get knocked out sooner is beyond me, but knocked out of the game he did, near the very end of the game. And ouch, did it look horribly painful.

Culpepper had one great pass to CJ and a number of checkdowns but this team isn't quite ready for the come from 2 scores behind type game just yet. They have enough trouble with the one score behind. Heck, they have enough trouble with a score or two ahead.

Needless to say, this team has not come as far as I had anticipated back in preseason. I know it takes time to install a new O, or a new D, or in this case both. I know it takes time for rookie players to learn the NFL game. I know there are ups and downs. But I thought that near the end of this season at least the majority of the players on this team would be more up then down. I was wrong.

They are not able to overcome setback after setback, and they are not able to stop creating setbacks. Some of the players are starting to get it and some are beginning to prove they will never get it. That's another ouch. What looked like a half way decent off season in free agency is starting to look less then stellar now. That is a big OUCH. On the bright side, at least to me, the draft looks better and better. Now if they can do it again but leaning a little more on the defensive side of things.

Anyway, the Lions are looking (still) at the 4th pick in the draft, and even though the contract is another ouch... the chance at yet another difference maker is not.

I can only hope the next draft has no reasons in it to say ouch.

Game 11 - 2009 Packers @ Home on Turkey Day

2009-11-26T16:51:00.003-05:00

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Well, perhaps being happy might be too much to ask for some, especially those on the 53 man Lions roster. Still, it was a nice start to the day. Turkey's in the oven, Lions get a turnover right off the bat and take the lead, got to see my oldest for only the second time since August.

Then the day started getting a little worse. Kid got her car stuck in the rain soaked mucky yard (don't ask me why the car was in the yard instead of the driveway), Lions started giving up plays after holding their own for a little while, and the pie crust was totally stuck to the pan and would not come out.

All of these things are or will be fixed. Neighbor helped pull the car out and with a strong enough knife the pie was chiseled out (looking a little rough for wear but still very tasty). Even the Lions will be fixed, it just will take a little more time. Something that would be easier to give if it wasn't for the last 9 years of Millen-ball.

Speaking of which, let us all be thankful that Matt is no longer in charge of player acquisition for the Detroit Lions. Every time I see his mug on television I completely tune him out. But I digress...

The team roster is still in need of more talent as we all knew. Some of the new free agent acquisitions are going to help the team in the future, and some of them will not. The rookies are learning, the coaches are learning, the fans will catch on eventually, those who haven't already. This year was not and never was about winning games so much as getting everyone on the same page to see who can help now, who will help eventually, and who just aren't going to be a part of things down the road.

Yes, the Lions lost. But I got to watch most of the game with my 6 month old granddaughter and part of the game with my 3 month old grandson, so the Thanksgiving day traditions of family and Lions football continue in the NetRat household... and THAT I am thankful for.

The final evaluation of the talent on the roster can wait until the season ends.

I sincerely hope you too are having a family filled Thanksgiving.

Game 10 - 2009 Browns @ Home

2009-11-22T23:49:00.003-05:00

What a difference a week makes!

There were people questioning Staffords ability. There were people questioning the draft pick of the tight end Pettigrew. There were people questioning the coaching. Heck, people were questioning every aspect of the team.

Will this one game silence them? No. Well, maybe for 3 days. But to think that the questions won't start up again with the very next loss is not really reasonable. Fans are just that way, well, many are anyway.

I looked at this as a losing season from the get-go. I looked at it as a season to install the offense and defense and to weed out the players and to get game time experience for the rookies they drafted and the free agents they kept. I looked at it as a beginning. What I saw in this game was a game changing capable TE. A never say die QB. A team that didn't fold when they could've. What I saw was a LOT of potential. Actually, I've been seeing some here and there all along, but this time, most everyone could see it. That makes it easier to preach to the choir. A choir with their ears open rather then closed.

Yes, it was "just" the Browns. Yes the refs appeared to maybe help the Lions out some at the end of the game. All that can be argued to death. What can't be argued though is that the negative nancies expected the Lions to lose, right up to when there was 0 seconds left in the game, and the Lions DID NOT LOSE. Various players showed what they had, Browns as the opponent or no. And the Lions were victorious in a game they both needed to win (for mental health sake) and were expected to win. That hasn't been happening lately. So don't take away from the win just because it was the Browns they were playing. Some of the other "great" teams in the league nearly (or did) lose their games this week.

Take from this that the nucleus of the team is in fact solid, or will be as time goes by. Take from it what I've been saying over and over again, they are building a team, this is the way you do it, and there are results that can be found if you care to look.

The injuries continue to mount, the season continues to be challenging, and the next game is a mere 4 days away. But, this a team that is being rebuilt from what would've been 50th place if there would've been 50 teams in the league last year, and they have grown a lot from that team in just one year. They will continue to build, and we get to all enjoy watching that build take place.

Will they win 4 days from now? Probably not. But they might, after all, it's been a pretty good week so far. Let's not just discount this team out of hand whether they win or lose, rather, let's enjoy the team that is being built, and for those who just can't do that, well try anyway, even if it's only for one week, or rather 3 days, as the case may be.

Game 9 - 2009 @ Minnesota

2009-11-15T18:01:00.003-05:00

It's official. The Lions are out of the playoff hunt. Yes, I'm joking. They were never in it except mathematically, but 8 losses is traditionally the point in the season where you consider your team out of the playoffs and that is where the Lions find themselves at, with 8 losses.

The Lions have never beat Brett Favre in a road game (unless Favre was a Packer in 1991, I'm too lazy to look it up) and they've lost in Minnesota for nearly that many years. So add another one to both streaks.

Meanwhile, the Lions are looking at a much easier game next week against the Browns (on paper), if there is anyone on the team left able to play. There were so many injured and out for the Lions I was expecting some WRs to have to start playing DB and some TEs to start playing on the OLine every down for the rest of the Vikings game. A lot of guys tried to leave it all on the field, and some literally did. If they can do that next week the Browns don't stand a chance. But will next week be an up game or a down game... and can they also do that and still be ready for their only nationally televised game on Thanksgiving day just 4 days later? It should be an interesting week (and a half).

I think the players are starting to get that if they mess up they won't be playing. Brown was a healthy scratch after going the wrong side on a screen play and making some other errors last week. One Cohen was replaced with another supposedly for special teams reasons. On top of that, first play of the 2nd half in this game we saw Kevin Smith lose the football a split second before hitting the ground and then didn't see him again for most of the 2nd half. The players also appear to be trying harder to get open, to make a tackle, to break a tackle, and so on. They know if they don't they won't get playing time. It's hard to believe it took this many coaches and this many years and this year that many games to get the point across. It would appear the team was a bit worse off then many thought.

Normally at this point in the season (after being out of the playoffs) the coaches might play the rookies to get ready for next year, but the Lions have been doing that since game 1. You would also evaluate your roster for the off season, but the Lions have been doing that since game 1 as well. The fans would be starting to talk draft, that started weeks ago. So what's left to look forward to? The same thing as there was in week 1. Watching the rookies who are playing try to learn and improve their game. Will they suddenly become pro-bowlers overnight? Nope. Will they suddenly play like seasoned vets? Nope. They will simply have more ups then downs, here and there, and learn the NFL level of the game so that next off season they can prepare better.

Meanwhile, the coaching staff will try everything they can think of to get a few more wins, as winning or more importantly not losing, is critical in building a team too. Just as important as evaluating the roster really. You want those who will come back next year to not be so despondent that they get into the "here we go again" rut... something that Calvin Johnson has already apparently fell into this year.

The team needs a few more wins. The coaching staff does as well. And for that matter, so do the fans. The Browns might just be willing to oblige the team in that matter next Sunday. For the sake of all involved, the Lions need to win this coming game if they can. Plus, it'll help make my preseason prediction not look so horrible.

Of course, my prediction was in jeopardy anyway now that some of the perennial basement teams are actually doing well (read as Bengals for example). Still I never predicted the playoffs for the Lions this year and I expected at least 10 losses while the rookies learn the game. I'm just glad these coaches actually play the rookies unlike previous coaching staffs. In the end, the team will be better for it.

I simply can't get all upset about the Lions for doing what I expected. That seems to be driving a few fans nuts. I can't help them. I could get upset about the 2009 draft except I think it was a great draft. I could get upset about the coaching except I think the coaching staff had an extremely difficult task and are finally starting to get through. I could get upset if the coaches weren't playing the rookies but they are doing that. All in all, things are going just about as I expected they would, not feared, expected. How can I be upset about that?

In summary. Don't get so upset about the Lions losing, almost everyone expected them to have a losing season in 2009.

Things to get upset about: officiating, dropped balls, repeating the same mistake over and over, and Favre doing well...

:-)

Things to not get upset about: being out of the playoffs and playing the rookies.

Game 8 - 2009 @ Seattle

2009-11-08T21:52:00.002-05:00

You just got to love rookie NFL football players.

Especially when your team is playing a lot of them. In the NFL every player makes mistakes, every team makes mistakes, and the general consensus is that the Vet players have learned from most of those mistakes and therefor make fewer of them. (Same goes for the coaching staff). Many games come down to the team who's players made the fewer mistakes, or at least fewer of the mistakes that actually affect the outcome of the game. Some would say that every mistake affects the outcome of the game, but that isn't always the case.

For example. Jason Hanson misses a chip shot field goal. The very next play by Seattle turns the ball over to the Lions, and the Lions are even closer to the end zone, and the Lions then turn it into a touchdown. Would the Lions have gotten those 7 points on top of the 3 points should the field goal have gone through? No way to know (short of a visit to an alternate universe). They certainly wouldn't have another set of downs with that great field position (most likely anyway), so you have to believe that no, the field goal would've produced only 3 points and the miss allowed the team to (eventually) get 7 points instead.

What I'm getting at is in this game the rookies Delmas, Levy, Hill, Williams, Brown, and Pettigrew all managed to greatly reduce their number of mistakes and play a fairly decent game (for the parts they played in it). Stafford however, did not.

The team played well enough (and that includes the good things Stafford did) to overcome 4 interceptions, but the 5th one was one too many. Does that mean the last one was the worst one? Maybe. But any of the others may also have netted a score (eventually) and changed the outcome of the game. It's also possible in an alternate universe you would find that with zero interceptions the Lions would've still lost. Who knows (for sure).

The whole team needed to make fewer mistakes in every game they've played this year, and in this game many players did make fewer mistakes (the receivers actually caught the ball for the most part), but one key player made a bunch of rookie mistakes, and that contributed (in this universe) greatly to the loss.

This loss only matters if Stafford learns from it. If he does not, it was a gigantic waste of time (and money). But if he becomes a better QB for it, if when he is the vet player those things don't happen, then it's worth it... because the wins the Lions aren't getting this year wouldn't have taken them to the playoffs anyway. They weren't going to get enough of them. But the learning the rookies are doing is VERY important. Painful, but needed.

Despite it all, the Lions were 2 minutes and 1 TD away from winning this game against a bunch of veteran players on their home field. Our rookie QB did manage to throw the TD, just to the wrong player on the wrong team. Please let him learn from it.

That's all you can do when you play this many rookies at once, hope they learn from it. Hope that when they become Vet players, they won't make all the same mistakes all the time. Hope you will have a good group of vets so you don't have to play as many rookies. Unfortunately, we fans get to have the fun of waiting the time out in this universe to get to that future.

New coaching, new schemes, new players, new rookies starting, all on the 2008 worst team of the league. You can't really have expected instant success. It's a recipe for ups and downs. And that is why you have to love watching rookie NFL players play (and hopefully learn)... it's how you (re)build a team. it's the only way to get there from here. It sure beats not playing them at all.

Game 7 - 2009 Rams @ Home

2009-11-01T22:01:00.003-05:00

Pay Attention!

The lions players were not paying attention. Also known (in this case) as lack of concentration or lack of focus.

Mental errors ruined the Lions chances for an easy win. The Lions blew this one big time all by themselves. False starts, holding, slapping a helmet, you name it on penalties and they happened at the worst time. But that paled compared to the drops. Over and over again the opportunity to march down the field was ruined by drop after drop. It was team wide, it was lack of focus (not lack of talent). Now, it can be said that it takes talent to pay attention, but I don't believe this is one of those cases. This was a team wide inability to concentrate.

The Rams also had no focus. They didn't even score an offensive TD until the final 2 minutes of the game. But they did use some trickery, with the fake field goal for a TD being the most obvious. The Lions who supposedly practiced against trickery during the bye week were caught with their pants down on that one.

There was some good in the game like the Lions using cut back lanes for the running backs more in this game but so much bad, like throwing the ball away on 4th down instead of doing everything humanly possible to convert the 4th down, that I don't want to even talk about the good things.

I don't want to talk about the bad things either for that matter. This was my sure thing game the Lions would win (after the Redskins game) and now I'm very concerned about my other predicted wins. The only reason I'm not completely despondent about it is I know that the coaching staff will be all over the players for the penalties, and the drops, and the bad tackling, and some of them might even respond in the next game well enough to make a difference.

So, my 6-10 season prediction is now in jeopardy, but there are some Lions players who's very careers (as in livelihood) are in more jeopardy and that makes my issues seem small in comparison. Those players who wish to continue to play (either for the Lions or at all) might just want to start paying attention. As in FOCUS!

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After I wrote this I realized something. The Lions players were not undergoing a lack of focus because of bad coaching (like some are sure to say). No, they are putting too much pressure on themselves and that obstructs the ability to focus. What they need to do, what will be nearly impossible to coach, is to have fun. Have fun playing football. That is the "it" that is missing.

Bye Week

2009-10-24T13:47:00.003-05:00

Just some odds and ends (this entry may get edited/added to over the next few days).

First, my prediction as posted in my forum for those who haven't visited there.

Lions Prediction Contest
« Thread Started on Sept 13, 2009, 11:57am »

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The deadline is in 1 hour and a couple minutes. Since I won't have the entries up until after the game sometime, I wanted to post my entry here before the game so no one calls "shennanigans" on me.

6-10
4th in Division
13th Draft Pick

This part isn't required, but here is my line of thinking....

Games they win are:

Home
Redskins
Rams
Browns

Away
Vikings
Bengals
49'ers

That's 1-5 at the bye week, a long start but a nice 5-5 finish.

I am 5 for 5 so far, of course, predicting the Lions to lose hasn't been that difficult this decade. Still, IF Stafford gets healthy I am staying with my 6 wins prediction... but I might change which games if I had the chance to do so. My expectations are based on my belief that a team starting so many rookies would get better after a rocky start as the year goes on. The rocky start was exactly as I figured, now we'll see if my assumption that they will learn from it and take off on a 5-5 "rampage" will hold.

Second. Even though Stafford has a long way to go (as a rookie he should) I must admit he is proving to be much better this year then I had ever expected. The offense isn't the same without him.

Third. The defense misses Sammie Hill. He and Levy are two D guys that are also proving to be much better in their rookie year then I (or probably anyone) had expected.

Fourth. I expect that the 2010 draft will be heavily debated (again) in most Lions forums. Even though I would love to take a dominate left tackle with the 1st round pick, it's looking more and more like the Lions will (and should) go either DE or CB... and DT has to be thrown in there as well. I'm not talking the "rest of the draft", just their first pick, which at this time I still think will not be in the top 10 (most will not agree with me there, so be it).

Game 6 - 2009 @ Green Bay

2009-10-18T23:04:00.002-05:00

Oopsie.

The Lions lose 0-26 at Lambeau Field, for the 18th year in a row. That's right, the Lions have lost every single year in Green Bay since the year before Jason Hanson was drafted (that is to say, Hanson has NEVER seen the Lions win in Green Bay since he's been on the team).

In watching the game, I don't think I could point to a player who didn't make a mistake. I'm not so sure I could point to a coach either. They ALL made at least one mistake.

That's a lot of mistakes.

Good thing it's a bye week. Coaches can do some film work. Players can do some sole searching. The team can get ready for the "rest of the season". And, to top it off, they start out against the Rams when they come back from the bye.

Yeah, they win that game! (I have been predicting that since August of course, just like I predicted this loss).

The Lions lost by 26 points, but the Giants lost by 21, so it's not the end of the world (unless you have a lot of Lions and Giants players on your FFL team).

The only thing that totally surprised me is that Stanton looks just a touch better then Culpepper. There just might be a small adjustment to the depth chart after the bye... assuming that Stafford is healed up enough by then to play. I'm not sure, not positive that is, that I would want Culpepper to back up Stafford while Stanton holds the clipboard... and that I would've never ever thought I would say. Congrats to Stanton, sorry about your mistake(s), especially that red zone one.

Those inactive players... well, they are very important to the success of the team. Each and every one of them. There is no depth behind those guys. Meanwhile, the secondary is filling in the blanks on their resume for next year... mostly blanks... but hey, there's always invisible ink... and 10 more games to play... so get your collective heads out of your collective behinds and play like your career depends on it.... because, in total and complete truth, IT DOES!!!

My only thinking throughout this game was how ruthless the coaches (and front office) are... and you sorry S.O.B.'s are going to pay for those horrid mistakes. Each and every one of you.... and the team will be a little better for it. So thank you... for proving the various points, about who can be upgraded and all that.

The trade deadline is fast approaching, anyone who finds themself still on the team has 10 games to prove they are better then the street guys (who may be coming in very very soon). This is it. This may very well be your last hurrah! Take the time off to contemplate your career, and if you do get the chance to play again, do not blow it. You won't like what happens if you blow it again.

Okay, so what's next? Well, as I said since August, and still say now (assuming Stafford is the starting QB) the Lions will win 5 of the next 10 games. They will win the games they are supposed to win, plus one more. They will give all of us a little hope for next year. The coaches will sort more out this bye week. Etc etc etc.

Look, I said it would be 1-5 at the bye. I said the forum was going to go nuts with that. I said that it's part of playing rookies who are learning under fire. And I said you could expect all these things that have happened.

If I am right. If the roster does have some talent as I believe it does. If I continue to support the coaches as I am willing to do. If I believe what I saw preseason and assumed would happen, then I have no reason not to continue with my prediction. That remains a 6-10 season, with 5 of those wins after the bye (so far I'm batting a thousand).

So, they have a bye week to get things sorted out, and they beat the Rams next game. Until that doesn't happen I'm fine with things as they are. I mean that, 100%. This is EXACTLY how I saw things playing out this far into the season. How can I be upset about that? I can not. I laughed a lot, but I am not upset. A little (okay, a lot) surprised about how Culpepper has done, and how much better Stanton has looked, but not upset or angry.

Now, if the Lions lose to the Rams... well, NetRat is not pleasant to be around if he gets angry. The Lions will win the next game, and 5 of the next 10.

That, or the NetRat made an Oopsie.... and that just isn't going to happen.

Game 5 - 2009 Steelers @ Home

2009-10-11T19:21:00.002-05:00

Almost. The Lions almost won this one. They still made mistakes and they still need more confidence but the Lions almost beat the superbowl champions from last year. A team that plays a 3-4 defense, a defense the Lions have shown to have problems with in preseason. A defense they will face again next week.

The Lions almost had a home game. Thousands of seats were waving a yellow towel because Lions fans didn’t buy tickets, Steelers fans did. Counting the season ticket holders that didn’t show up, the Steelers fans almost outnumbered the Lions fans.

Calvin Johnson almost helped the team. But a knee injury put him on the sidelines near the beginning of the game and he never returned.

The defense and special teams almost helped the offense out. There was better field position, there were some stops. Both were almost playing as well as the opposition.

Stafford almost was able to play. His injury kept him as the reserve QB, but he is almost healed up.

Culpepper almost played okay. At times the plays were good, or smart, or showed that he isn’t totally washed up. At other times you wonder if the sack was his fault or the fault of his teammates. Still, he almost led the team to a win.

Coaching was suspicious at times, but fantastic at others. The team as a whole was almost very competitive, almost for the entire game. No third quarter collapses, no head scratching play calls, not too many things to really complain about, not really. Almost well played.

I for one am pleased to see the growth of the “rest of the team”. With Stafford out the whole game, and with CJ out for most of it, the players who did play played well for the most part. Room for growth? Sure. That is to be expected (as I’ve said before). In fact, this loss was my prediction as well (I’m now 5 for 5). A great road game next week isn’t too likely either, but a competitive one is possible. I expect a loss next week, then after the bye week, a win against the Rams. I’d settle for being almost right though, if the Lions are able to pull off a win at Lambeau Field.

The team is almost there. After the bye week I still predict a 5-5 season. This game was part of the growth to get them to that point. As will be the next one. The fans will almost be happy with a 6-10 season if the team does show improvement, the improvement that I have been predicting.

So yes, the Lions lost and are now at 1-4, but they are improving. The are almost there, almost ready to compete at a true NFL level. Almost going to be able to do it every week, not just a few times a year. There are a few players that will need to be "upgraded", but we all knew that. There will be more mistakes made, but we all know that as well. Can I really truly be happy about this game even though they lost? Yeah, almost. As long as it means they will be better later. As long as they are improving. As long as there is a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel. Then yes, I can be okay with them losing the game. Almost.

Game 4 - 2009 @ Chicago

2009-10-04T17:08:00.002-05:00

Tough game. The Lions lost the game (as predicted by yours truly) after being tied at half time. The second half kick off that was returned for a TD by Chicago seemed to have a very negative affect on the entire team. I guess they just aren't mentally tough enough (yet).

There is a certain lack of confidence that shows through when things go wrong and unless something big and good happens soon after then the team tanks even harder. That too is more or less predictable. That is why it'll be hard to win until they play some teams that are also lacking in confidence (such as Washington last week and the Rams after the bye week). It'll take time for the coaching staff to build up team confidence, in the meantime there are some things I noticed that will help out the coaching staff, and some that will hurt.

Matt Stafford proved it's not a fluke. He can indeed drive the offense down the field on a time consuming series of plays that result in a score. More then once during the same game even. Considering it was merely his 4th NFL start in his first year in the league, that is really quite remarkable. Yes, he still makes rookie mistakes (there is a limit to miracles after all) but it bodes well for the future of the team.

The run defense isn't horrible. They've pretty much contained AP, Portis, and Forte (except for one or two big plays) which is no easy task. Compared to last year when teams could run at will it is a very big improvement. If they can continue to improve there (by eliminating those big plays) and also work some on the pass defense the games will get easier to win.

Special teams looked like special ed in this game, I don't know if that was due to the injured players who were out or if they simply forgot how to play. I predict there will be ton of special teams work this week (not really stretching my neck out there am I). They don't need to be the best in the league, but they do need to be better then what they were in this game.

Pettigrew needs to work on his focus. Too many dropped balls. Same goes for Aaron Brown in the return game who bobbles the ball nearly every time. Kevin Smith needs to get healthy (or healthier), he has heart but his production was just not there today. CJ, Stafford, and a few others were hit pretty hard in this game. Chicago was the team playing "tough" not the Lions. Chicago was the team inflicting pain. That too seemed to sap the Lions mental toughness.

If they can heal up, work on special teams a ton, keep with the decent run defense and learn to have a little fun during the game the competitiveness will show itself... and once that happens, the confidence will build and the wins will come.

Time to get tough... both mentally and physically... enjoy the match and feel good about how hard you fought, win or lose.

Game 3 - 2009 Redskins @ Home

2009-09-27T19:12:00.002-05:00

The Lions WIN !!!

And I'm not just talking the coin flip either. They took the lead, kept it, and managed to hold on until time expired. Since the last win was in December of 2007, I almost forgot how to spell w-i-n.

Would this be a good time to point out that I predicted this win... in August?! Probably not, since I also predicted the next win wouldn't happen until after the bye week, against the Rams. I also don't plan on changing that prediction. 1-5 before the bye, 5-5 after. 13th pick in the 2010 draft.

Anyway, back to game #3. There was some very good things that happened in this game. Not so much in specific plays, though there were some of those, but in general, team-wise and individual-wise.

Stafford was having fun (unlike the first two games) and it showed. He also showed he is able to learn, both from past games when he intentionally threw the ball away in this game instead of forcing a ball into a bad spot, to later in the same game when he put some touch on a pass that previously he tried to rifle in without success. That doesn't mean he has permanently learned and will never repeat the mistakes again, he will, but it's the start that counts.

Kevin Smith (who I hope is okay) was doing some good things in the run game, as was the OLine. Just like rookie QBs, OLines need time together to improve, and this group is doing some of that. They will be limited to the weakest link on the line, but at least these coaches are getting the most out of them instead of making it worse. As for pass protection, at times it was okay, at others it was still bad. When the $100 million man (Haynesworth) sacked Stafford I was expecting a cart to have to come onto the field to haul our QB away... instead, somehow, our QB gets up okay and Haynesworth needs medical attention. One could say that maybe some of the bad luck has turned... happy players could make some more of their own good luck, and we're sure to see some of that yet later this year.

The wide receivers and tight ends as a group played a decent game, hopefully that's a sign they are all starting to "get it". Let the ups and downs commence... just be there more ups then downs (along with fewer and fewer downs as the year goes along).

The players on defense also showed a little talent here and there. Nothing earth shattering, nothing 100% perfect, just a hint of individual ability smattered in with team play. The accolades they are sure to get for this game won't hurt their confidence, that's for sure.

The team won this game despite individual errors, and they will win more, when the various elements align again. I suspect the team will be a little more competitive from now on, but the losses will still occur, simply due to how far behind the Lions were compared to the other teams in the league after Millen's fabulous assistance.

Oh, the Lions now have a better record then the Titans... does anyone think they miss coach Schwartz yet? I'm thinking they do. I know a lot of people were worried on those last two drives when the Lions went to prevent (I hate prevent as most of you know) but at least our new coaching staff actually knows how to run it, and when to run it. Unlike the previous coaching staff who ran it for the entire game (I'm sure those last two drives looked VERY familiar, except for the outcome .. to those who watched all the games last year).

So take it from me, this is not the last w-i-n of the season, the team will still lose more games then they win but will improve as the year progresses while being competitive in nearly all of them, and we have a really good coaching staff that knows how to bring a team up from the depths of despair. I would add that the rookie QB is progressing exactly as I suspected, as is the OLine, receivers, special teams and defense. Just do me a favor, after each of the next 3 losses, don't get all down, but rather look forward to the better games that are coming in the 2nd half of the season. Tonight feel free to bask in the glow of the word W-I-N.

Game 2 - 2009 Vikings Home Opener

2009-09-20T17:41:00.002-05:00

Once again the Lions played just about exactly as I had expected they would, better then last week, not good enough to win.

Last week the 2008 worst defense played the 2008 best offense, and it showed. This week, it was the 2008 worst run offense against the 2008 best run defense... and the Lions actually had success running the ball.

The Lions also contained Adrian Peterson to some extent, and made Favre uncomfortable for all but the 3rd quarter (when he killed them).

I can just imagine the half time talk in the Vikings locker room... "you are losing to the 0-16 Lions, do you really want to be 'THAT TEAM'?! The one they finally get a win against?" The mistakes in the 3rd quarter by the rookie QB didn't help, in fact, between him and the offensive line penalties, you don't have to look much further to find why the team lost.

But the OLine isn't magically going to get better without a lot of time together (and some of them not even then) and the quarterback isn't going to learn from his mistakes until he makes them, so again, all as expected.

The coaches did prove they can assist at improving the team play by changing personel or by further instructing the players to play better. They did their job.

The fans shouldn't have really expected the Lions to win this game any more then the last one, too many things would've had to gone perfectly right for it to happen. But next week is different, there will be some room for error next week. And that is why I predict the Lions to win at home against the Redskins.

So keep coaching, coaches. Keep learning, Stafford. Keep practicing and playing together, trenches. And keep improving as a team... for there are many more challenges ahead.

Game 1 - 2009 @ New Orleans

2009-09-13T21:17:00.002-05:00

To the twelve people who actually believed that the Lions had a chance to win this game before it started I just want to say "you're nuts"... certifiable... watch out for men in white coats.

As for me, things went just about as I had suggested it would (in the various forums I post in). I had expected Stafford to make mistakes (posted that here) and as all rookie QBs do, he did. I figured he was good for two interceptions and a TD. I figured a little over 200 yards (I think I posted 220 yards). I believe the completion percentage I guessed at was something like 20 of 36. All came pretty close, so I for one was not upset or surprised or really fazed any way by his play.

As for the team as a whole, well, the 2008 #32 defense (would've been #40 if there were 40 teams) against the 2008 #1 offense after just one off season... yeah... surprised? No, not me. The offense couldn't run block and the same guys did some of the dumbest penalties at the worst time... no surprise there either. Improvement is going to take time, lots of practice, good coaching, and even more time.

The whole point I'm trying to make and as I said here before, NOW the coaches know what they need to work on, as do the players. But this year, I expect that instead of tuning out the coaching staff by the entire team, that work will actually begin on fixing the problems. I expect some ups and downs, but more ups then downs. I expect these coaches to actually help the team improve. This is the starting point, not the end point. That may sound like a kool-aid drinking Lions fan, but it's truly what I expect. It's only if these coaches AREN'T able to make the team play better that I will get worried.

So, next week, another loss, but not as bad. Then in week 3, a win... ending the talk of breaking losing streak records. Then a couple more losses due to the quality of the opponent more so then any regression, though there may be some of that... then after the bye... I expect them to win 5 and lose 5 (not in that order of course) to finish the season 6-10. I believe that is a reasonable expectation and an obtainable result. Not a goal, the goal is to make the playoffs, no one should ever stop trying to do that or they shouldn't be playing... but if the end result is 6-10... then the team is on the right track.

The trick here is to learn from the mistakes... that goes for the coaching staff, the players, and the 12 fans who picked the Lions to win.

Preseason Game 2, 3 and 4 thoughts... along with final cuts.

2009-09-07T22:53:00.002-05:00

I must apologize for the delay in updating this blog. I have all the remaining preseason games on my DVR but had no chance to record them to DVD yet. I never realized how working about 70 hours a week can remove all your free time.

Okay, so preseason game 2, the Great Lakes Classic, was horrific. A reminder of some of the 2008 games and it left everyone feeling a little flat in a big hurry. Thing was, the team didn't game plan for the 3-4 defense, and it showed. That's the thing about 3-4, it's radically different enough that you DO have make changes to your game plan or you are toast. So, the Lions proved that they can play really bad if they don't try... just like 2008. The next game against a 3-4 team won't be as bad, but it could still be interesting to say the least.

Preseason game 3. I posted on the forum that it was interesting that even though Culpepper started (usually a sign of the regular season depth chart) that Stafford actually got more playing time in, and much of that with many of the supposed starters. Turns out that was indeed a hint of things to come. In addition, if you do watch the game with an eye to seeing what the coaching staff is doing, you will note they repeatedly try things... "just to see what happens". They move DTs out to DE, and vice-versa. They move the LBs around. Same with the DBs. Same with the offensive players. They run the same plays more then once in a row. Call the same players number to get the ball ... just to what happens the next time. Game 3 was partly used as a dress rehearsal for the regular season, but was used even more for evaluation (still).

Preseason game 4. Injuries really messed up the plans here, to an extent. But I must say the street QB didn't do all that bad. I was impressed they got him up to that speed that fast. Apparently the Jets were too since they traded for him. It was during this game that I began to feel that Stafford was going to be the starting QB sooner rather then later (despite my line of thinking that the coaches like experience). I posted in the forum how the ability to take the hits and still throw the ball was a sure sign that Stafford was maturing into the role. I also stated that some of the throws were purely amazing. Some were totally wrong, wacked, or otherwise not right... but of those that connected, some of them were nothing short of awesome. He may turn out to be a nut case, or an ego-maniac, or an interception king like no other, but if he isn't one of those things, then the guy is going to be a very exciting player to watch... down the road. Hey, he's still a rookie QB. Rookie QBs make mistakes... always. Many fans (like myself) hate that learning curve they go through... but if you can (and I can) get my mind around it properly... then I can sit back and enjoy watching the progress that appears this young man is going to make... as he becomes a top QB in the NFL.

So, that is what I will do. Throw away the Joey Harrington results and once again hope that the mistakes I am going to be watching will actually make the QB better as the season progresses.

The cuts. First, they aren't done yet. The coaches are telling the front office who isn't measuring up and the front office is keeping a look out for replacements to try out. This will continue for the entire year. Although the moves may be fewer and further between after game 1 (due to salary cap issues).

I saw that they put Hill as a starter next to Jackson, rotating in Cohen in Jackson's spot. They moved Fluellen out to DE but he will still play DT, so he became the swing player. The Linebackers appear to be much better, and a warning to Ernie Sims... Dizon is closing in on your starting job. Time to make those stops and to quit overrunning the plays. The DBs may or may not be productive at first, but I think they will improve as time goes on... it just might be a little ugly (okay, a lot ugly) for a while. The offense is improving due to talent, coaching, scheme, but mostly because the offensive line is improving (and that is also due to coaching, scheme, and just a pinch more talent). 4/5ths of the OL were playing last year, yet even in base in preseason you can see an improvement... that is because of the coaches. Pure and simple.

Will the O help out the D enough to garner some wins? Hard to say at the moment. But at least the coaching staff does indeed know what it is doing, and that will help (instead of hurt) the team more then most people realize.

Too bad the first game is against Drew Brees and the New Orlean Saints. But then again, what would they learn from a cakewalk game? Might as well learn in game 1 where you need to do the most work.

And that is all I have time for right now, hopefully that (free time) improves soon as well as the Lions.

Preseason Game 1 thoughts

2009-08-18T00:27:00.002-05:00

I was going to review the game in detail but I can see now I won't have time this week, instead of waiting I'm going to post some thoughts on the game now...

First, Atlanta played that game without two guys who were injured, the Lions played without these guys (and how I believe they land on the non-existant depth chart):

RB Maurice Morris (2nd string)

WRs Calvin Johnson (starter), Bryant Johnson (starter), Dennis Northcutt (starter at slot), John Standeford (fighting to make roster over a handful of guys)

TEs Brandon Pettigrew (starter), Casey FitzSimmons (fighting to make roster over Gronkowski)

OL Dyland Gandy (fighting to make roster over a couple players), Kirk Barton (not likely to make final roster)

DT Grady Jackson (starter, or at least in rotation at DT)

LB Jordon Dizon (2nd string), Zack Follett (fighting to make roster over a couple players)

S Louis Delmas (starter), Marquand Manuel (2nd string or possible starter), Daniel Bullocks (2nd string or possible starter)

CB Keith Smith (2nd string or possible nickle or even a starter if Henry moves to Safety)

That's 7 or 8 starters they went without, a third of the team!

Of those, only the Bullocks injury could be season threatening (so I believe at this point anyway).

Health will play a critical role in how well the Lions do this season. Of course, that's no different then any other season or any other team, but I said it anyway.

Okay, so I replayed a part of the game, I must say in that opening offensive series for the Lions, that was some of the best play out of Raiola I've seen in years. I don't know (yet) if he did that well all game, or if he can be counted on to do that well all season, but if he can then I will owe him a big apology... and I will owe the previous coaching staffs another bad mark for using him wrong.

I did watch the whole game (live, well, tape delayed, at full speed) once and had some other observations. With the first 3 wide receivers out of the lineup the rest of the pack had a perfect opportunity to show their worth in a game situation to help them make the team. I did not notice anyone flash out of the whole group. Now, I would normally want to review the game using slo-mo and rewind here and there to get more detail, but just going by the once over method, the players didn't "get'r done". I had high expectations for Colbert, but of the group he failed to impress. Having said that though, you don't take the playing time for part of one game and call it SO! There was 2 weeks of practice film prior to the partial game Colbert and the rest played in, and that does count in the coaches review of the players when cut down day arrives. I did see 3 Lions practices and in those Colbert was not the Colbert in game 1 of preseason. So, did he just have a bad day, or is he unable to translate what happens at practice to game day? That is critical to know. All I can say is, the pressure is now on, he must NOT do this poorly next preseason game or he may not recover his chances to remain on the team. Sippio, who did look terrible in the practices I saw, has already been cut. Colbert can not have any more "bad days" if that is indeed what it was. The same goes for the rest of the WR corp. Time to shine, if you are still on the roster by game 2, you may never see game 3 unless you do what you have to do, and the #1 thing a wide receiver has to do is CATCH THE BALL. There is also blocking, and special teams, route running, lining up correctly and all that... but catching the ball is and always will be the number one thing you do as a wide out.

The OLine in not yet set, and they obviously haven't jelled. Plus they haven't had live play yet to get coached by the new coaches on what they did wrong. So, for them, it'll be important to show who can learn and be coached and improve. The same exact thing goes for the DLine. Those that can be coached up and learn will stick, those who can not will be gone (except for Goz, his guaranteed money means he has a roster spot, period). No one, as in you or me or anyone else, should be under the delusion that the OLine and DLine are going to be okay. They were not addressed much in 2009 while other areas were. Right or wrong that is what happened. But these players do have new schemes and new coaches to help them improve. If they do, the team improves. However well the two lines play will determine how well the Lions do in 2009. We all know that (or should know that). We just need to remember that. The coaches meanwhile need to sort out the players and keep the best ones, and not get it wrong, to speed up the team building process. We mustn't lose sight of that. Next year upgrading the lines can become paramount, this year is about instituting the schemes, coaching those who can improve, and seeing what you have to work with for next season. It's not an excuse, it is a necessary step in fixing a really broken team.

Some other things I noted...

Stanton showed great poise when he got the team in field goal range and had to spike the ball to stop the clock. He did not panick and spike it too quickly, but rather took his time and waited the clock out to make sure that Jason would drain the clock with his field goal attempt. I was quite impressed with that poise.

While most say that Stanton won the game, you could also argue that the blocked extra point was the game. After all, the Lions won by 1 point. That was the special teams game ball play of the game.

Stafford showed some nice look offs and pump fakes. I was impressed with that more so then the throws, he is known far and wide for his arm, it's the rest of the stuff I questioned (both the if he can do it and when will be ready to do it questions). So far so good with the exception of the poor decision to throw a pick six. A rather big exception, but unless it becomes a very nasty habit, nothing to worry about just yet.

Culpepper meanwhile showed that he is regaining his old form. Give him CJ on that first long throw instead of the (at best) 4th string WR and maybe that bomb is a TD and his entire tenure in the game looks quite brilliant. I find no fault with the rest of the plays to speak of and it just felt nice to know that a QB that knows what it's all about was in charge at QB.

A few other things that are sometimes forgotten... it was only the first preseason game. There was no game planning. Plays were run at times just to see what would happen. Players were tested just to see what would happen. The full playbook was not used, nor should it be. Oh, and the back flip in the end zone was no worse excessive celebration then diving into the stands in green bay... plus, the RB coach Gash all but dared Brown to do it.

All in all, it was an interesting game. For a 0-16 team though, I think the most important part was that the team did NOT quit fighting and did get the win. Would that have happened with the previous coaching staff? (No is the appropriate answer by the way). And be honest, with the clock ticking down towards the end of the game down by two scores, did you think the Lions were going to end up winning the game?

No, me either.

This is not the 2008 Lions my friends. They may not be ready for post season play just yet, but they are definitely not the 2008 Lions. And that is good to know.

Sunday, August 9th, afternoon (and only) practice.

2009-08-10T01:56:00.003-05:00

It’s 97 degrees out. Shade? What shade? I think I’m standing on the sun. How they got bleachers there I’ll never know… and what wrong turn I took to also get there still baffles me. So anyway, its 97 degrees on the Sun and about 1,000 others are there with me and around 80 guys who resemble the 2009 lions.

I have my pad and pen and camera (and backup camera) and realize that writing play by play takes a lot of work, I miss a lot of action, and I don’t even know which method of reporting people like. So I mixed it up today, some of one, some of the other. Hey, it was ON THE SUN and it was HOT, okay?!

First, I’m there early, maybe 15 minutes before practice “officially” starts. Half the team is out there doing stuff. Jason and Nick are kicking to a group of players on one side of one field, the QBs are talking over to the right. There are other groups scattered about doing various things ON THE SUN before practice even starts. Dedicated players they are.

So anyway, the one player I thought I saw practicing catching kick offs was Bullocks. Now I thought he was hurt, and I couldn’t figure out why he was trying his hand at catching kick offs. In fact, it wasn’t until 10 minutes ago that I figured it out. Bullocks is number 27, the number of the player I thought I saw, then I realized a few minutes ago that maybe it was a 21, which would’ve been Aaron Brown, and DING, I figured it out!!! It’s those stupid, retarded, fonts they are using for the numbers. The 1’s look like 7’s. Especially on the Sun!

So, anyway, Bullocks was no where to be seen, but Aaron Brown was practicing along with 5 others before practice started.

So the horn blows, they all start to do their stretching, and I’m wondering if that pool of water by my feet was because they had watered the grass just before I got there, or if I was really sweating that badly. (Turns out… both).

After the stretching, those players still alive took to the fields into their position groups. This time I was nearest the wide receivers. So whoever Ernie Sims growled at today I do not know.

First thing I notice about the WRs is that B. Johnson is there, helping out the coaches with the drills. Most injured players don’t do that… or at least I hadn’t seen it in the past. I thought is was interesting. After a while the QBs quit their drills with their coach and joined the WRs. Crossing route practice ensued. From there various other drills commenced, with a coach here and there flipping over their clipboards from time to time to see what drills they were to cover that day.

As the other position groups finished they joined in, eventually there were fullbacks, tightends, running backs and all those coaches there too. I saw Stafford hitting about 3 out 4 nice throws with the other being quite a bit off (75% isn’t bad though). Culpepper was hitting about the same. Stanton has some work to do still. When they started doing something that looked like a spread offense drill (5 wide, but 1 or 2 might be a RB, or FB, or TE, or combo) the press started to wander over from where they had been. I had never seen this drill before so I’m hopeful someone in the press can fill me in on what I was watching.

When they did some special teams work I noticed that the rest of the players were not drilling… but standing and watching. I took it that the coach was giving them a break since it was so hot and that long hot trip to the sun probably tired them out some. I also noticed that Colbert was playing gunner on special teams. More and more I saw players taking it easy watching this or that drill, I thought it was pretty nice of the coach to only drill some of the team at once and give the other time to acclimate to the conditions on the sun, being none of them were any more used to it then I was.

I saw Salaam get hurt, and Gandy (a center) took his place playing LT. I thought that was odd. But I have checked and I can't figure out how the numbers 6 and 5 could be anything but a 65 even with those horrid fonts. Later I saw Salaam playing again, so it must not have been serious.

They did some kind of 11 on 11 drill. Heller dropped a pass. Someone else then dropped. To the ground. Wet towels were rushed to him, a whole wagon load of gatorade was driven there (where it had to be unloaded so they could load the guy on the wagon to take him inside). He had wet towels draped all over him so I could not tell if it was a player, a coach, or someone from the press (or someone visiting). Never did find out. Stafford then threw a ball that was way off. I think it was way off, maybe someone didn’t go towards Mars when they should’ve, can’t ever be sure of these things. I did see Henry make another defensive play.

Later they worked on punt returns, again resting players not involved. Buchanan was still working punt returns. Then Williams caught one, side note… When he threw the ball back to a coach it was a good 30 yards and he threw a perfect spiral. Can you say “wildcat”? Delmas was watching punt coverage, as was Henry when he joined them… not saying others weren’t watching, but they were on my side of the action watching something specific, and I do not know what. Colbert was again working as a gunner on punt coverage. A bit later Ken Harris took his place to give him a rest. Suddenly someone didn’t get into position and the coach flipped. No more of that drill. He was hot!!! Of course, he was on the Sun, so what do you expect, but still, that player must have really done a no-no!

Later on, Levy made a nice move on D to break up a Stanton pass. Then I think I passed out… as I recall picking on the Killer for a minute or two, and he picking on me, then next thing I know practice is over. ¾ of the people never made it that far, so the lineup for autographs was short, and most of the players probably appreciated that. Some still came over to sign or talk, including Larry Foote, Gronkowski (he was actually first over), and some others who’s names I didn’t write down but pictures I have. They will be up later, if I can get either camera working again. They do not like the Sun.

For that matter, neither do I… at least… not visiting it.

Ps. On the way home I think I drove through a tornado. The car tried to take flight into a field quite suddenly, but I managed to stay on pavement. A bit up the road there were trees down blocking one lane or the other, leaves and twigs and branches everywhere, several of those very large very heavy signs that light up were upside down, one smashed to very small pieces, and right after that was a truck with a chain trying to pull a full sized tree off the expressway so everyone could stop having to drive the shoulder to continue on down the road. What a mess. I blamed it all … on the sun. (departs whistling a Stevie Wonder tune).

http://www.elyrics.net/read/s/stevie-wonder-lyrics/blame-it-on-the-sun-lyrics.html

Saturday, August 8th, Ford Field practice.

2009-08-10T01:00:00.001-05:00

Day two of my excursion into downtown Detroit brings Lions news that a lot of you may have already heard, or read, or where told about. But since I have nearly 7 pages of notes to type up, I’m going to tell it as I saw it (and as we all know, any two Lions fans watching the same thing can come up with completely opposite views of what they saw).

Got a couple of nice seats around the 25 yard line about row 6 or so, close enough that someone in the row in front of me said something like “good look Ernie” and the entire section was welcomed to an angry look from Mr. Sims who had heard it. (I’m just not sure he heard what was said correctly, in fact I assume he did not.) Ernie Sims is one very intense man. He is full of 0-16 and needs to release it on someone. I pity the poor team he releases all that on.

Turns out that the Commish was there. I thought it great he got to see over 15,000 people show up to a practice for a 0-16 team, most of whom waited in the rain (a heavy rain) to get in. I applaud all who attended. There is no better way to show your support of your team to a guy like Goodell then what happened, especially after the recent past.

I think it impressed coach Schwartz as well. He stated in his address to the attending fans that the commissioner was there and that it would be very wrong to take away the tradition of the Thanksgiving game from the Lions. He used the size of the crowd to support his stance. Now if only he could get BishopDon to shut up about it. (If you don’t know who that is or his stance on this issue, you haven’t spent enough time at the Mlive Lions Forum.)

While the players were warming up, stretching, and what-not, Jason Hanson worked on his field goals using a wire to hold the ball. Basically, he was warming up, in his own way. By my count, he made 4 out of 5 kicks from 53 yards out, and 2 of 3 from 55 yards out. He was not exactly happy with that (but I was).

I saw Cook, Dizon, Fitzsimmons, Pettigrew and Morris there but not participating. There were probably other hurt guys there but they either weren’t visible to me or weren’t wearing their jerseys.

The team broke up into their usual positional groups for drills; in front of me were the linebackers (again) so I watched the defensive line across the field from me. Not going by height, or actual weight, but by appearance, it seems to me that Jackson is the largest dlineman on the team. Second goes to Darby. Third to Ikaika Alma-Francis. And the fourth largest is John Gill. Strongest? Heaviest? Best player? No idea. Wasn’t comparing that. Just the visible size difference as they stood there in a group.

Now the play by play. Due to people leaving their seats and my having to move to allow them through, and due to my camera not cooperating all the time, and answering questions by those around me, I missed some of the plays. So the following is not complete. Not accurate. And when it comes to whether a play failed because of a bad throw, a bad attempt at a catch, or a well defended play… well, that comes down to the interpretation of the viewer. Having said that, this is what (I say) happened… (oh, and trying to keep track of who threw it, who caught or didn’t catch it, and who defended it… ha! (I’m only ONE person.)

In the one-on-one drills:

Culpepper threw to CJ, it was not a catch, very well defended. Kevin Smith dropped a pass. Threw out of bounds to Williams (overthrow). Then Jennings caught a great pass in traffic.

Stafford threw to a TD to Boldin on a great pump fake play. To Fowler a nice catch in stride. Then an incomplete to Sippio who appeared to have run the wrong route. (For sure missed some plays in there)

Stanton overthrew the receiver on the first pass. Dumped off a pass to the RB perfectly. Threw to Williams who slipped and missed the catch.

Back to Culpepper who threw to Jennings for an incompletion. Then Boldin had a nice catch. Sippio in stride. Then a good short pass to Gronkowski.

Stafford to CJ complete in good coverage. To Williams but would need instant replay to see if Williams was inbounds on the catch. To Harris overthrown deep.

Stanton to Boldin who slipped and nearly caught it anyway.

Summary. Nothing great, nothing horrid, and they ALL have a LOT of work ahead of them.

7 on 7 drill….

Culpepper to Kevin Smith nice short pass in stride. Throw 2 was an incomplete (was pass interference by Sims but not called). #3 to Heller for a completion. #4 out of bounds (bad throw, bad route, intentional? No way to know, like I said, it’s that way for any play). #5 to CJ one handed try with good D coverage. #6 had to kneel to set up field goal (the goal of the series of plays was to get in field goal range in so many seconds). A successful series.

Stafford to Cason for short yardage. #2 to Gronkowski incomplete deep. #3 to Colbert, out of bounds (again, throw, route, intentional?). #4 to Gronkowski complete for a first down. #5 to Colbert high and out of bounds. #6 to Gronkowski 1st down. #7 was a spike to stop the clock. 10 seconds remaining… threw another 1st down to Colbert and called timeout for field goal. A successful series.

Stanton to Jennings 1st down. #2 to Heller 1st down. #3 too high for Harris. #4 incomplete by Bodin. 4th down pass #5 for a first down to Jennings. 15 seconds left. Spiked it to stop the clock. #6 overthrown out of bounds. #7 kneel down to stop the clock for a field goal. A successful series.

Special teams then worked out, with Jason getting live action attempts (versus a wire holding the ball as before practice started). He was good from 38, 41, 43, 47, 50, and then 53 yards. Perfect.

Then they went to a live team drill….

Stafford started it with DeVries knocking down his pass. Run play by K. Smith for short yardage tackle by Sims. Complete to Felton (I made some kind of note here about Buchanan that I can not read). Smith had a nice run to the outside. Overthrew a nice pass to Heller deep middle. Felton had a nice run up the middle. (note the use of the fullbacks in both runs and passing? Yeah, me too)

Culpepper to Allen Ervin who caught the dump off pass. Kevin Smith ran hard up the middle. Felton ran up the middle. A nice deep pass to CJ who caught it (but he did push off it was not called). Sippio same play, fell flat trying to catch it. He just wasn’t fast enough.

Stanton hands it to Aaron Brown for short yardage. Naked boot leg, ran it for a few yards. Naked boot leg (faked) it was handed to Aaron Brown who ran into a pile of guys and reversed field for a nice run (haven’t seen that in, oh, about 12 years I’d say). Fowler drops a nice deep pass up the sideline. Aaron Brown worms his way up the middle for a nice gain. Allen Ervin was stopped quick on his run. Darby then stuffed Brown real quick.

From there they took up Kick Off practice…

Buchanan was one of the kick returners. As was Derrick Williams, Dexter Wynn who let it go over his head.. twice (by design?), Ramzee Robinson dropped his, Jennings dropped one. Chris Robinson good.

Now back to team drills…

Culpepper to CJ on a short pass, stopped quick by Henry. Pass #2 would’ve been a sack but Dante completed it to Jennings. #3 was a double blitz (left and right), not picked up, throw to CJ was over his head. Very nice Defensive series. Sammie Hill has his hands on his hips already. (Means he’s tiring). Cason tried a run up the middle, Peterson stopped him. Short pass to Colbert is good. Nice pass to Fowler is good.

Stafford hand it to Aaron Brown who is quick up the middle. Williams caught a short pass as he was wide open. Took exception to the tackle. Didn’t see who the D was, but a small fight broke out between them. Throw to Williams again, it went off his shoulder (consider it a drop, or miss, whatever). To Colbert, nice catch in stride. Appears bigger then he supposedly is. A throw to #46 Carson Butler. Then a nice long pass to Colbert.

Stanton did not play in that series.

New drill. 10 seconds on the clock, 1 time out. 30 yard line. Need a score….

Stafford to Williams… stopped by Ramzee Robinson short. Pass to Jennings incomplete.

Culpepper to Jennings, complete. Pass to Williams is dropped (or just not caught).

Stanton throws it way way way out of bounds. Jennings catches the next for a 1st down, and the only QB to score.

Now the drill is a full team for the full field…

Culpepper to CJ deep, sails over his head as he never saw the ball and wasn’t to the spot. A nice run by K Smith, now 3rd and 3. Sacked by Hill. Time out. Cason runs it, 2nd and 2. (obviously I missed something in this series). CJ wide open for 11 yard catch. Cason up the middle. 2nd and 8. Fluellen at DT, Jason Hunter at DE. Dump pass to Cason for 1 yard, 3rd and 7. Incomplete to CJ, nice Defense.

Stafford hands it to Aaron Brown, stuffed by Levy. 2nd and 10. Incomplete pass, broke up by Robinson. Pass complete to Boldin, 16 yards. 1st down. Aaron Brown for 1 yard, stopped by Levy. Overthrow to Colbert. Incomplete to Fowler, penalty, automatic 1st down. To Colbert incomplete.
Allen Ervin runs for 6. On a high snap in the shot gun he gets it to Colbert for a first down.

Stanton to Harris, through his hands. Aaron Brown gang tackled, 3rd and 6. To Heller who dropped it. To Felton who was hit hard with the tackle. 2nd and 6 after 15 yard penalty. Felton up the middle for 9. Felton hit the defender hard, very loud hit. Throw to Williams 1st down. Incomplete pass to post, not one WR was near it (bad route maybe?). Carson Butler (or was it Felton, stupid fonts for numbers anyway, hard to read) TD.

After the practice I stuck around until they started sweeping. Saw #76 (Jeff Backus) with ice wrapped around his arm (I think it was ice). Saw Loper and Schwartz’s wives and kids (kids were handed over the wall to them). Schwartz stayed and signed autographs and talked to about 2 dozen fans at the end. Finally, Cody Spencer started throwing his clothes into the audience, first his shoes, then his socks, and I think an arm band. Later he was interviewed by the press, then on his way (barefoot) into the tunnel he signed the stuff for the fans who caught it… or maybe he signed footballs, hats and such… couldn’t tell.

And that folks was the way I saw it. (Then a few hours later I saw the Tigers get whipped by the Twins, but man, the fireworks after were something to see! Still have not seen the Tigers win a game when I was in the stadium, do I get more then 3 strikes?)

Friday, August 7th, afternoon practice only.

2009-08-07T20:48:00.003-05:00

After nearly 4 hours on the road I (we) made it to Allen Park with 3 minutes to spare. Grabbed the cameras, locked the car, walked with the wife to the end of the parking lot, realized I forgot the wallet, went back to car, got the wallet, locked and caught up with wife on the way to the bleachers to watch the practice already in progress. Then realized I forgot my pad of notepaper and my pen.

So instead of missing more practice I stayed. Big mistake, can’t remember half of what I was going to write. I hate being rushed, too easy to forget things.

Okay, so, the Lions.

I was sitting right in front of where the linebackers were working on individual drills. Off to the right were the tight ends. Off to the left were the running backs. Way way way across the field was the rest of them. (There are 2 football fields there, side by side, and most of the team was on the back (furthest away) field, which was okay for individual drills, but the 7 on 7 drills and all that sucked as far as seeing what was happening goes).

Sims went first on each LB drill. The man is possessed! He is so ready to go hit someone it’s ridiculous. He would hit the equipment like he was trying to destroy it and he didn’t much care. He was definitely the best at squaring up and smacking the heck out of the equipment. Levy twice took two tries to square up for a good solid hit, he would be ranked as the worst of the group (in that one drill, not as the worst LB). Peterson was the most vocal, trying to get the crowd riled up. A regular comedian. Looked right at me when he commented on how hard Sims had hit the sled. “That’s the way you do THAT!”

At one point a guy seated 3 spots over from me said something like “I could do that” (meaning he could drive into the sled like they were) and got a very dirty look from at least 4 of the LBs, including Sims. Thought they were going to come over and drag the dude over to the equipment to see what he could do. I wonder if those guys will make it to the first preseason game before they cremate someone.

Over at the TE area they were working on getting around a guy (one of the coaches) and then rushing a bag (one of those that wobble but do not fall down) smacking it (hard) out of the way and then continuing on. The first TE did it wrong, apparently as the TE goes beyond the bag he is also supposed to whip his other arm around behind him and really smack it again… just as hard. The coach showed them all how to do it again (about 5 times) and after that all I could think about was how much pain they intend to inflict upon the defenders in the route.

This isn’t going to be the mambie-pambie defense that was Barry’s/Marinelli’s. In fact, the entire practice was different, from the stretching to the other warm-ups, from the each of the drills being run to the plays being called in all the team drills. Now I thought last year when I saw them doing Marinelli’s drills they were getting worked hard, I really did (then) but I do not think so any more. Plus they are actually practicing situational play calling… intentionally. Instead of only after the team shows they can’t do something in a game.

There was some special teams practice as well as 7 on 7 and the like... most of which I couldn’t see well from where I was at. So I’m not going to detail every play by every player, or even be able to answer questions about specific players… not yet anyway. (I’m down here for two more days).

I will say that on kick returns #12 Derrick Williams was the quickest, surest handed, and smoothest runner. Cason makes the catching part look like second nature, but then there’s not much there. Aaron Brown can catch, but he isn’t as smooth or as sure handed as the other two. Okay for a backup I believe, but from this one practice I’d say Williams is the kick returner.

I saw the running backs and full backs doing their fair share of catching (yes, I said half backs AND full backs). Also saw the full backs running the ball. Both FBs caught my eye more then once. They have some weapons there and these coaches appear to realize that. I think Aaron Brown takes the #3 spot from Cason. He is just fast. Noted that a couple times before I knew who I was watching. #3 running back and backup kick returner.

CJ when up to speed (which takes one step) can cover 10 yards plus in 3 strides, usually before my mind can tell me that the guy is running. He is huge (compared to, well, anyone else on the team). Then there are the rest of the WRs. Maybe they should break the bricks back out… learn to softly catch the ball and to look it into the hands. More drops then I could count. They have to fix that somehow, quick.

Saw some good plays and some bad plays by just about everyone on the roster, need more info before I comment further on anyone else (and a closer view).

I did meet the Killer. He asked if I had noticed that Henry was practicing at safety all day (never did see much of the DBs from where I was at, so I had not noticed). I told him things were rather quiet as compared to last year, when “working on the chain gang” blared from a rather poor speaker throughout the entire practice, over and over again, for hours, every day. He thanked me for the bad memory. He was in a hurry (presumably to write his “Henry to Safety” article) so we shook hands and continued on from there (he to write, me to get lost in downtown Detroit looking for my hotel, thanks google maps!!!).

That’s all for today, tomorrow it’s the open practice at Ford Field and then one last practice at Allen Park before I head home on Sunday. Hopefully I will not be pressed for time and forget the paper and pen this time.

Picture Slide Show

The 2009 Detroit Lions Draft (Part II)

2009-04-29T23:41:00.001-05:00

Results of the plan. First some additional observations.

Almost all the players selected were team captains, so leadership garnered points for each player in the ranking system the Lions are now using. That doesn’t mean a player has to have been a team captain to get drafted, it just means when ranking players it didn’t hurt their status any. It also means a non-captain had other qualities that increased his desirability to the Lions.

Second, when addressing needs the Lions weren’t just looking at starters. No one truly expects round 4 or later picks to be starters until a couple years later, if ever. However, backup slots are needs too, and if the current backup on the team hasn’t shown the promise to eventually become a starter then getting replaced by a later round draft pick who eventually might be able to become a starter is a distinct possibility.

Third, playing special teams is nearly a requirement for a backup to make the team. It’s very difficult to hold your roster spot if you are not a starter and also don’t play special teams. Thus potential draft picks in the later rounds got extra credit for special teams play. There is no sense drafting a guy after round 3 if he’s not going to be able to help special teams as he is then unlikely to be able to make the roster anyway.

I do not believe the Lions have used these 3 “methods” in the past.

Some notes on players that were not selected… we all know what “red flags” are as it pertains to draft picks. Drug use. Lingering injuries that never seem to heal. Mental issues of one kind or another. But I believe the Lions also now downgrade (in their ranking system) players that don’t fit their definition of body type for the position. For example, a 300 pound DT was going to get points taken away while a 330 pounder wouldn’t. A fast LB at 235 plus pounds is going to get more points then a faster LB at 220. In other words, the ranking allowed for preferred body types for each position. In addition to that, players who help the run game (or help stop the run game) got perhaps some small advantage over players who do not. That’s not to say a player HAD to have these traits. Just that where they ranked might be affected. To end up at the top of the Lions draft board at any particular slot would require an exceptional player with some fantastic traits… good enough to keep them up above the rest of the remaining hopeful draft picks that maybe CAN do special teams, or has the better weight, or is a team captain, whatever.

Now for the picks themselves, what do I think of them, and how will they fit with the Lions roster?

1a. Matt Stafford. His contract could’ve easily been higher, and it would seem it also could’ve been less. Since it’s (in my opinion) somewhere in between I’m just going to leave this part alone. #1 draft picks get paid way too much (as do all the top 7 actually) and until they fix that there is no point complaining about his contract. I’m not going to do an in-depth analysis of this (or any other) pick, dissecting every play, every throw and foot placement, etc. The summarized version of it is this… when Matt’s on, he is a terrific quarterback. When he’s a bit off, he has a really bad day. It will be up to the coaches to work on his mechanics so that he has something to fall back on when things go haywire… something to get him back to comfortable… much as was saw in the 2nd half of the bowl game against MSU last January. There is a chance that he could actually become a franchise QB. Something most of us Lions fans who are alive now have never seen (sorry old timers). Not saying he will, or should, only that there is a chance (yeah, I know, “so you’re saying there’s a chance”).

Then look at all the intangibles. Not his intangibles, but these ones… it’s been 50 years (going on 51) since the Bobby Layne 50 year curse was laid upon the organization. Not months after the curse being over the Lions draft a QB who went to the same high school as Bobby Layne. Matt’s first name is really John. The last QB the Lions drafted in round 1 also had a first name he didn’t use of John. M-a-t-t Millen was fired before M-a-t-t Stafford was drafted. Then of course there’s the last name, the last four letters being f-o-r-d. Doesn’t it just feel right? No? Well, at least know this, Schwartz, Mayhew, Lewand and the rest of the Lions front office and coaching staff have pretty much laid their futures on Stafford’s shoulders… if he doesn’t turn out they will likely not last the fallout in a few years. Do these individuals not strike you as the types that would try their very best to keep the odds on their side? They strike me that way. Stafford may not start the season, but if Culpepper struggles, or in blow out games (in either direction) you may see Stafford get playing time. If Culpepper plays in top form then you may have to wait a long time before seeing Stafford this year.

1b. Brandon Pettigrew TE. The best tight end in the draft, an old school type who can block and block well, as well as catch. The Lions haven’t really had a quality TE that stayed healthy enough to help the team in any one season in nearly 2 decades. Like QB, many of us fans have forgotten what a truly good TE can do for your team. The run game, the passing game, the ability to help a lineman who is struggling, and the best friend of any young QB. There were 236 other players drafted after Pettigrew, and perhaps some of them will be better in the NFL then him, but for a team who does not have a quality TE you can hardly go wrong getting one of the best available. I do not foresee Brandon having any trouble adjusting to the NFL and of the top notch TE’s currently in the league, he might just have one of the better personalities. There was a reason the Lions had him ranked this high, higher then those other 236 guys, and I figure it won’t take us all long to see what it was come this season.

2. Louis Delmas, Safety. This guy hits hard. Remember the player who hit Keyshawn a few years ago? You do? Why? Because it was a devastating hit, right? That was one hit… in what… years? Now picture a few of those every single game! It’ll be contagious. The other players will play harder, they’ll be juiced up. This pick (ignore who else was there instead) is going to entertain us… and make the opponents hear things (that are really there).

3a. DeAndre Levy. A future Arizona Cardinal… until the Lions foiled their plans. I’ll throw out a link to some info on the guy, nothing much, just some numbers. http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/04/06/wisconsins-levy-runs-a-450/ He’s big but not huge and can get bigger. He’s fast. He’s able to hit with authority. In fact, I believe he’s the same exact size as Foote, a potential free agent LB Steeler who actually wants to be a Lion. I am moderately certain the Lions planned on starting Levy at MLB this year from game 1. However, if Foote does become a Lion the young man will have a year or two to learn from a vet. I don’t have a problem with either plan myself. No offense to Paris Lenon. By the way, his jersey is available for sale at the Detroit Lions Store (the other 3rd round pick’s is not).

3b. Derrick Williams WR/KR. Say hello to our new return guy. We may see him on the field even more if he can win the slot receiver spot. If I got my gut feelings right, the Lions got 4 guys with the first 4 picks that will be seeing the field and helping the team out a lot for the next 6 years before they hopefully all warrant and get contract extensions.

4. Sammie Lee Hill DT. 6’4” 329 pounds. I don’t think the Lions were going to draft a DT smaller then this guy. He’s not quite ready to take the starters job away from the vets, but he will make the team and rotate in while he learns. He does have a lot to learn though, and assuming he does this “little” project has the potential to be every bit as good as a former DT that the Lions traded away recently, without the attitude. Dare I say it? The Lions may have finally got a 4th round pick that will actually contribute to the team… for the first time in what, 3 decades? Something like that.

6. Aaron Brown RB/KR. Assuming this guy can do it, he’ll be replacing two “vets”. If he can be a 3rd down RB and be either the backup return guy or if they split the return duties for kicking and punting, then Calhoun and Cason are both goners. Kevin Smith, Maurice Morris, and Aaron Brown should hog the 3 half back roster spots. It doesn’t hurt to have two returners on the team either, for depth in case of injury. Plus, if something were to happen, Cason always seems to be available to re-sign for some reason.

7a. Lydon Murtha T. 6’7” 306 lbs. I think Lydon’s task is to beat George Foster out of the backup offensive tackle job. It is likely to be his only chance to make the team and not the practice squad.

7b. Zack Follett LB 6’2” 236 lbs. Zack it the exact same height and weight as Levy (believe it or not). Zack’s task is to beat Graham and Spencer out of a backup LB job. I suspect the man has it in him to do just that. The linebackers will eventually be expected to be able to play more then one LB position, so it doesn’t really matter which backup position he obtains, he just needs to get past the vets to earn a roster spot. His special team play might be enough to do just that, as long as his LB play isn’t too far off the mark. He already has a fan base in Detroit, so it should be interesting watching the young man battle. And it will be a battle.

7c. Dan Gronkowski TE. 6’6” 255 lbs. One of those “too good to pass up” picks. They already got Pettigrew so they didn’t “need” another TE, except that isn’t true. A team keeps more then one TE, a 7th round pick isn’t likely to earn a starting job, and upgrading backups who have shown they are unlikely to ever be starters is just as important as drafting starters in the early rounds. So Dan needs to take Fitzsimmons job away, simple as that. He has one thing going for him already, his cap hit will be a 1/6th of what Fitzsimmons is. If he doesn’t take the job, that means that Fitz is playing healthy and well, and there is nothing wrong with that either.

There are 9 undrafted rookies who were also signed by the Lions. I’m rooting for a hard working LB named Holtzclaw to make the team… if he can impress despite his “short arms” he may have a chance, after all, LB is the one position on this team that before the draft had only 2 sure fire keepers on it, that leaves room for up to 5 new faces. The returning players should all be ready for a duel, and that includes the vets signed during free agency too.

That’s not to say the other undrafted guys don’t have a chance, I’m just not as familiar with them as I am with the guy that so many Chiefs’ fans had hoped would be on their team.

On my Lions page I have a link to my estimated depth chart for 2009. I’ve had it there all off-season but I’m about to add a page to the front of it that includes the results from the draft. It’s only a guess, some mental projections if you will, and subject to change as matters develop, but by the middle of August I will once again try to top my best estimate of year’s past, of 5 wrong (based on the final 53 man roster).

http://www.theNetRat.com